The airline perturbation problem: considering disrupted passengers

Abstract

When airlines are faced with some unforeseen short-term events, they have to reconstruct their flight schedules. Although aircraft recovery decisions affect passengers, these disrupted passengers and recovering them have not been explicitly considered in most previous aircraft recovery models. This paper presents an assignment model for airline schedule recovery which recovers both aircraft and disrupted passengers simultaneously, using a rolling horizon time framework. Our model examines possible flight retiming, aircraft swapping, over-flying, ferrying, utilization of reserve aircraft, cancellation and passenger reassignment to generate an efficient schedule recovery plan. The model ensures that the schedule returns to normal within a certain time and the objective is to minimize operational recovery aircraft cost, cancellation and delay cost as well as disrupted passenger cost. The model is tested using a data-set with two disruption scenarios. The computational results show that it is capable of handling the integrated aircraft and passenger recovery problem successfully.     

An optimization model for aircraft maintenance scheduling and re-assignment

The aircraft maintenance scheduling is one among the major decisions an airline has to make during its operation. Though maintenance scheduling comes as an end stage in an airline operation, it has potential for cost savings. Maintenance scheduling is an easily understood but difficult to solve problem. Given a flight schedule with aircraft assigned to it, the aircraft maintenance-scheduling problem is to determine which aircraft should fly which segment and when and where each aircraft should undergo different levels of maintenance check required by the Federal Aviation Administration. The objective is to minimize the maintenance cost and any costs incurred during the re-assignment of aircraft to the flight segments.This paper provides a complete formulation for maintenance scheduling and a heuristic approach to solve the problem. The heuristic procedure provides good solutions in reasonable computation time. This model can be used by mid-sized airline corporations to optimize their maintenance costs.     

Future electricity demand from battery‐powered vehicles

An important decision faced by airline schedulers is how to adapt the flight schedule and aircraft assignment to unforeseen perturbations in an established schedule. In the face of unforeseen aircraft delays, schedulers have to decide which flights to delay, and when delays become excessive, which to cancel. Current scheduling models deal with simple decision problems of delay or cancellation, but not with both simultaneously. But in practice the optimal decision may involve results from the integration of both flight cancellations and delays. In Part I of this paper, a quadratic programming model for the integration decision problem is given. The model can formulate the integration of flight cancellations and delays as well as some special cases, such as the ferrying of surplus aircraft and the possibility of swapping different types of aircraft. In this paper, based on the special structure of the model, an effective algorithm is presented, sufficient computational experiments are conducted and some results are reported. These show that we can expect to obtain a sufficiently good solution in terms of reasonable CPU time.     

A heuristic model for frequency planning and aircraft routing in small size airlines

The flight schedule of an airline is the primary factor in finding the most effective and efficient deployment of the airline's resources. The flight schedule process aims at finding a set of routes with associated aircraft type, frequency of service and times of departures and arrivals in order to satisfy a specific objective such as profit maximization. In this paper, we develop a two‐phase heuristic model for airline frequency planning and aircraft routing for small size airlines. The first phase develops a frequency plan using an economic equilibrium model between passenger demand for flying a particular route and aircraft operating characteristics. The second phase uses a time‐of‐day model to develop an assignment algorithm for aircraft routing.     

Multi‐objective airport gate assignment problem in planning and operations

We consider the assignment of gates to arriving and departing flights at a large hub airport. This problem is highly complex even in planning stage when all flight arrivals and departures are assumed to be known precisely in advance. There are various considerations that are involved while assigning gates to incoming and outgoing flights (such a flight pair for the same aircraft is called a turn) at an airport. Different gates have restrictions, such as adjacency, last‐in first‐out gates and towing requirements, which are known from the structure and layout of the airport. Some of the cost components in the objective function of the basic assignment model include notional penalty for not being able to assign a gate to an aircraft, penalty for the cost of towing an aircraft with a long layover, and penalty for not assigning preferred gates to certain turns. One of the major contributions of this paper is to provide mathematical model for all these complex constraints that are observed at a real airport. Further, we study the problem in both planning and operations modes simultaneously, and such an attempt is, perhaps, unique and unprecedented. For planning mode, we sequentially introduce new additional objectives to our gate assignment problem that have not been studied in the literature so far—(i) maximization of passenger connection revenues, (ii) minimization of zone usage costs, and (iii) maximization of gate plan robustness—and include them to the model along with the relevant constraints. For operations mode, the main objectives studied in this paper are recovery of schedule by minimizing schedule variations and maintaining feasibility by minimal retiming in the event of major disruptions. Additionally, the operations mode models must have very, very short run times of the order of a few seconds. These models are then applied to a functional airline at one of its most congested hubs. Implementation is carried out using Optimization Programming Language, and computational results for actual data sets are reported. For the planning mode, analyst perception of weights for the different objectives in the multi‐objective model is used wherever actual dollar value of the objective coefficient is not available. The results are also reported for large, reasonable changes in objective function coefficients. For the operations mode, flight delays are simulated, and the performance of the model is studied. The final results indicate that it is possible to apply this model to even large real‐life problems instances to optimality within short run times with clever formulation of conventional continuous time assignment model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Airline-driven ground delay programs: A benefits assessment

Three decades of research studies in ground delay program (GDP) decision-making, and air traffic flow management in general, have produced several analytical models and decision support tools to design GDPs with minimum delay costs. Most of these models are centralized, i.e., the central authority almost completely decides the GDP design by optimizing certain centralized objectives. In this paper, we assess the benefits of an airline-driven decentralized approach for designing GDPs. The motivation for an airline-driven approach is the ability to incorporate the inherent differences between airlines when prioritizing, and responding to, different GDP designs. Such differences arise from the airlines’ diverse business objectives and operational characteristics. We develop an integrated platform for simulating flight operations during GDPs, an airline recovery module for mimicking the recovery actions of each individual airline under a GDP, and an algorithm for fast solution of the recovery problems to optimality. While some of the individual analytical components of our framework, model and algorithm share certain similarities with those used by previous researchers, to the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first comprehensive platform for simulating and optimizing airline operations under a GDP and is the most important technological contribution of this paper. Using this framework, we conduct detailed computational experiments based on actual schedule data at three of the busiest airports in the United States. We choose the recently developed Majority Judgment voting and grading method as our airline-driven decentralized approach for GDP design because of the superior theoretical and practical benefits afforded by this approach as shown by multiple recent studies. The results of our evaluation suggest that adopting this airline-driven approach in designing the GDPs consistently and significantly reduces airport-wide delay costs compared to the state-of-the-research centralized approaches. Moreover, the cost reduction benefits of the resultant airline-driven GDP designs are equitably distributed across different airlines.     

Heuristic approach to the airline schedule disturbances problem

Abstract

When disturbances make it impossible to realise the planned flight schedule, the dispatcher at the airline operational centre defines a new flight schedule based on airline policy, in order to reduce the negative effects of these perturbations. Depending on airline policy, when designing the new flight schedule, the dispatcher delays or cancels some flights and reassigns some flights to available aircraft. In this paper, a decision support system (DSS) for solving the airline schedule disturbances problem is developed aiming to assist decision makers in handling disturbances in real-time. The system is based on a heuristic algorithm, which generates a list of different feasible schedules ordered according to the value of an objective function. The dispatcher can thus select and implement one of them. In this paper, the possibilities of DSS are illustrated by real numerical examples that concern JAT Airways' flight schedule disturbances.     

Disruption Management of an Inequality-Based Multi-Fleet Airline Schedule by a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm

Abstract

This paper presents a novel application of a Method of Inequality-based Multi-objective Genetic Algorithm (MMGA) to generate an efficient time-effective multi-fleet aircraft routing algorithm in response to the schedule disruption of short-haul flights. It attempts to optimize objective functions involving ground turn-around times, flight connections, flight swaps, total flight delay time and a 30-minute maximum delay time of original schedules. The MMGA approach, which combines a traditional Genetic Algorithm (GA) with a multi-objective optimization method, can address multiple objectives at the same time, then explore the optimal solution. The airline schedule disruption management problem is traditionally solved by Operations Research (OR) techniques that always require a precise mathematical model. However, airline operations involve too many factors that must be considered dynamically, making a precise mathematical model difficult to define. Experimental results based on a real airline flight schedule demonstrate that the proposed method, Multi-objective Optimization Airline Disruption Management by GA, can recover the perturbation efficiently within a very short time. Our results further demonstrate that the application can yield high quality solutions quickly and, consequently, has potential to be employed as a real-time decision support tool for practical complex airline operations.     

Evaluation and implications of environmental charges on commercial flights

Environmental charges are one of the economic instruments for controlling externalities. Their application to commercial flights has become a preferred method of encouraging the sustainable development of the air transport industry. Two kinds of externalities, aircraft noise and engine emissions, both generating profound impacts on human beings and on the environment, are considered here. The hedonic price method is applied to calculate the social cost of aircraft noise during the landing and take-off stages of the flight. The marginal impact of each flight with specific aircraft/engine combinations is derived for the allocation of aggregate noise social costs. In contrast, the dose - response method is applied to estimate the social cost of each engine exhaust pollutant during different flight modes. The combination of aircraft noise and engine emissions social costs is then evaluated on the basis of several environmental charge mechanism scenarios, using Amsterdam Airport Schiphol as a case study. It is shown that the current noise or engine emissions related charges at airports are lower than the actual social costs of their respective externalities. The implications of charge mechanism scenarios are subsequently discussed and evaluated in terms of their impacts on airline costs, airfares and passenger demand.     

Modeling the competition among air-travel itinerary shares: GEV model development

This study reports the results of aggregate air-travel itinerary share models estimated using data from all East West markets in the United States and Canada. These models predict airline ridership at the itinerary level and aid carriers in long and intermediate term decision-making. Official and comprehensive schedule and bookings data is used to estimate generalized extreme value models capturing the inter-itinerary competition dynamic along three dimensions: time of day, carrier and level-of-service (nonstop, direct, single-connect, double-connect). Models incorporate one, two or three of these dimensions simultaneously. Model structures considered include multinomial logit and variations of the nested logit model (two-level nested logit, two-level weighted nested logit, three-level nested logit, three-level weighted nested logit and nested weighted nested logit). Independent variables for the models measure various itinerary service characteristics such as level-of-service, connection quality, carrier attributes, aircraft type, and departure time. Additionally, the advanced models yield inverse logsum and/or weight parameter estimates capturing the underlying competitive dynamic among air-travel itineraries. The results are intuitive, and the advanced models outperform the more basic specifications with regard to statistical tests and behavioral interpretations, giving insight into the competitive dynamic of air-carrier itineraries.     

An optimization model for a real-time flight scheduling problem

Although airlines plan aircraft routes and crew schedules in advance, perturbations occur everyday. As a result, flight schedules may become infeasible and would need to be updated. This Day of Operations Scheduling problem impacts the entire system of an airline as the decisions enforced are final. When perturbations are relatively small, the airline may be able to at least preserve the planned aircraft and crew itineraries. We propose a model that determines new flight schedules based on planned crew transfers, rest periods, passenger connections, and maintenance. Its dual is shown to be a network model, hence solvable in a real-time environment. In addition, it can be used in more sophisticated operational and planning systems.     

Integrated modeling of high performance passenger and freight train planning on shared-use corridors in the US

This paper studies strategic level train planning for high performance passenger and freight train operations on shared-use corridors in the US. We develop a hypergraph-based, two-level approach to sequentially minimize passenger and freight costs while scheduling train services. Passenger schedule delay and freight lost demand are explicitly modeled. We explore different solution strategies and conclude that a problem-tailored linearized reformulation yields superior computational performance. Using realistic parameter values, our numerical experiments show that passenger cost due to schedule delay is comparable to in-vehicle travel time cost and rail fare. In most cases, marginal freight cost increase from scheduling more passenger trains is higher than marginal reduction in passenger schedule delay cost. The heterogeneity of train speed reduces the number of freight trains that can run on a corridor. Greater tolerance for delays could reduce lost demand and overall cost on the freight side. The approach developed in the paper could be applied to other scenarios with different parameter values.     

Coordinated multi-aircraft 4D trajectories planning considering buffer safety distance and fuel consumption optimization via pure-strategy game

In this paper, we consider a coordinated multi-aircraft 4D (3D space plus time) trajectories planning problem which is illustrated by planning 4D trajectories for aircraft traversing an Air Traffic Control (ATC) sector. The planned 4D trajectories need to specify each aircraft’s position at any time, ensuring conflict-free and reducing fuel and delay costs, with possible aircraft maneuvers such as speed adjustment and flight level change. Different from most existing literature, the impact of buffer safety distance is also under consideration, and conflict-free is guaranteed at any given time (not only at discrete time instances). The problem is formulated as a pure-strategy game with aircraft as players and all possible 4D trajectories as strategies. An efficient maximum improvement distributed algorithm is developed to find equilibrium at which every aircraft cannot unilaterally improve further, without enumerating all possible 4D trajectories in advance. Proof of existence of the equilibrium and convergence of the algorithm are given. A case study based on real air traffic data shows that the algorithm is able to solve 4D trajectories for online application with estimated 16.7% reduction in monetary costs, and allocate abundant buffer safety distance at minimum separation point. Scalability of the algorithm is verified by computational experiments.     

A hybrid optimization-simulation approach for robust weekly aircraft routing and retiming

We address the robust weekly aircraft routing and retiming problem, which requires determining weekly schedules for a heterogeneous fleet that maximizes the aircraft on-time performance, minimizes the total delay, and minimizes the number of delayed passengers. The fleet is required to serve a set of flights having known departure time windows while satisfying maintenance constraints. All flights are subject to random delays that may propagate through the network. We propose to solve this problem using a hybrid optimization-simulation approach based on a novel mixed-integer nonlinear programming model for the robust weekly aircraft maintenance routing problem. For this model, we provide an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming formulation that can be solved using a commercial solver. Furthermore, we describe a Monte-Carlo-based procedure for sequentially adjusting the flight departure times. We perform an extensive computational study using instances obtained from a major international airline, having up to 3387 flights and 164 aircraft, which demonstrates the efficacy of the proposed approach. Using the simulation software SimAir to assess the robustness of the solutions produced by our approach in comparison with that for the original solutions implemented by the airline, we found that on-time performance was improved by 9.8–16.0%, cumulative delay was reduced by 25.4–33.1%, and the number of delayed passengers was reduced by 8.2–51.6%.     

The impact of strategic management and fleet planning on airline efficiency - A random effects Tobit model based on DEA efficiency scores

As a result of the liberalisation of airline markets; the strong growth of low cost carriers; the high volatility in fuel prices; and the recent global financial crisis, the cost pressure that airlines face is very substantial. In order to survive in these very competitive environments, information on what factors impact on costs and efficiency of airlines is crucial in guiding strategic change. To evaluate key determinants of 58 passenger airlines’ efficiency, this paper applies a two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach, with partially bootstrapped random effects Tobit regressions in the second stage. Our results suggest that the effects of route optimisation, in the sense of average stage length of the fleet, are limited to airline technical efficiency. We show that airline size and key fleet mix characteristics, such as aircraft size and number of different aircraft families in the fleet, are more relevant to successful cost management of airlines since they have significant impacts on all three types of airline efficiency: technical, allocative and, ultimately, cost efficiency. Our results also show that despite the fuel saving benefits of younger aircraft, the age of an airline’s fleet has no significant impact on its technical efficiency, but does have a positive impact on its allocative and cost efficiency.     

Itinerary choice and advance ticket booking for high-speed-railway network services

This paper formulates and examines the passenger flow assignment (itinerary choice) problem in high-speed railway (HSR) systems with multiple-class users and multiple-class seats, given the train schedules and time-varying travel demand. In particular, we take into account advance booking cost of travelers in the itinerary choice problem. Rather than a direct approach to model advance booking cost with an explicit cost function, we consider advance booking cost endogenously, which is determined as a part of the passenger choice equilibrium. We show that this equilibrium problem can be formulated as a linear programming (LP) model based on a three-dimension network representation of time, space, and seat class. At the equilibrium solution, a set of Lagrange multipliers for the LP model are obtained, which are associated with the rigid in-train passenger capacity constraints (limited numbers of seats). We found that the sum of the Lagrange multipliers along a path in the three-dimension network reflects the advance booking cost of tickets (due to advance/early booking to guarantee availability) perceived by the passengers. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate and illustrate the proposed model for the passenger assignment problem.     

Travel itinerary problem

In this study, we propose a travel itinerary problem (TIP) which aims to find itineraries with the lowest cost for travelers visiting multiple cities, under the constraints of time horizon, stop times at cities and transport alternatives with fixed departure times, arrival times, and ticket prices. First, we formulate the TIP into a 0–1 integer programming model. Then, we decompose the itinerary optimization into a macroscopic tour (i.e., visiting sequence between cities) selection process and a microscopic number (i.e., flight number, train number for each piece of movement) selection process, and use an implicit enumeration algorithm to solve the optimal combination of tour and numbers. By integrating the itinerary optimization approach and Web crawler technology, we develop a smart travel system that is able to capture online transport data and recommend the optimal itinerary that satisfies travelers’ preferences in departure time, arrival time, cabin class, and transport mode. Finally, we present case studies based on real-life transport data to illustrate the usefulness of itinerary optimization for minimizing travel cost, the computational efficiency of the implicit enumeration algorithm, and the feasibility of the smart travel system.     

A model and optimization-based heuristic for the operational aircraft maintenance routing problem

This paper investigates the Operational Aircraft Maintenance Routing Problem (OAMRP). Given a set of flights for a specific homogeneous fleet type, this short-term planning problem requires building feasible aircraft routes that cover each flight exactly once and that satisfy maintenance requirements. Basically, these requirements enforce an aircraft to undergo a planned maintenance at a specified station before accumulating a maximum number of flying hours. This stage is significant to airline companies as it directly impacts the fleet availability, safety, and profitability. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we elucidate the complexity status of the OAMRP and we propose an exact mixed-integer programming model that includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints. Furthermore, we propose a graph reduction procedure and valid inequalities that aim at improving the model solvability. Second, we propose a very large-scale neighborhood search algorithm along with a procedure for computing tight lower bounds. We present the results of extensive computational experiments that were carried out on real-world flight networks and attest to the efficacy of the proposed exact and heuristic approaches. In particular, we provide evidence that the exact model delivers optimal solutions for instances with up to 354 flights and 8 aircraft, and that the heuristic approach consistently delivers high-quality solutions while requiring short CPU times.     

Is it the labor unions’ fault? Dissecting the causes of the impaired technical efficiencies of the legacy carriers in the United States

Data envelopment analysis is used to evaluate the technical efficiencies of a number of major passenger airlines in the United States at transforming their inputs (labor, fuel and fleet-wide seating capacity) into available seat-miles. A tobit regression model is then used to identify the underlying drivers of airline efficiency, as measured by the data envelopment analysis efficiency score. The impact of unionization on airline efficiency is found to be statistically insignificant, controlling for the influences of other hypothesized determinants of airline efficiency: the average age of an airline’s fleet, the average size of its aircraft, its average stage length, the extent to which the airline relies of hubbing within its route structure, the percent of its passenger enplanements that are international, and whether the airline is a legacy carrier. The statistically significant drivers of airline efficiency, at a ten percent level of significance, are average aircraft size, average stage length and the extent to which the airline relies on hubbing and connecting flights within its route structure. The stage length variable is not significant at a five percent level of significance, however. An increase in average aircraft size or in average stage length enhances an airline’s efficiency whereas an increase in hubbing reduces it.     

Integrated airline planning: Robust update of scheduling and fleet balancing under demand uncertainty

The airline schedule planning problem is defined as the sequence of decisions that need to be made to obtain a fully operational flight schedule. Historically, the airline scheduling problem has been sequentially solved. However, there have already been many attempts in order to obtain airline schedules in an integrated way. But due to tractability issues it is nowadays impossible to determine a fully operative and optimal schedule with an integrated model which accounts for all the key airline related aspects such as competitive effects, stochastic demand figures and uncertain operating conditions. Airlines usually develop base schedules, which are obtained much time in advance to the day of operations and not accounting for all the related uncertainty. This paper proposes a mathematical model in order to update base schedules in terms of timetable and fleet assignments while considering stochastic demand figures and uncertain operating conditions, and where robust itineraries are introduced in order to ameliorate miss-connected passengers. The proposed model leads to a large-scale problem which is difficult to be solved. Therefore, a novel improved and accelerated Benders decomposition approach is proposed. The analytical work is supported with case studies involving the Spanish legacy airline, IBERIA. The presented approach shows that the number of miss-connected passengers may be reduced when robust planning is applied.