A Review of Pseudo Panel Data Approach in Estimating Short-run and Long-run Public Transport Demand Elasticities

Abstract

The distinctions between short-run and long-run public transport demand elasticities have been highlighted in the literature, but the identification of long-run travel demand has been constrained by existing research methodology and the unavailability of longitudinal travel survey data. The pseudo panel data approach using repeated cross-sectional data has been suggested as an alternative to conducting a longitudinal travel demand analysis when genuine panel data are not available. This paper comprehensively reviews the background and the current practices of pseudo panel data research, and introduces the challenges in applied research that need further investigation, particularly for public transport. A case study using the Sydney Household Travel Survey data is presented to demonstrate pseudo panel data construction and to identify the short-run and long-run public transport demand elasticities using a pseudo panel data approach. The research findings suggest that the public transport demand elasticity of price in Sydney is ?0.22 in the short run and ?0.29 in the long run.     

The Incorporation of Passenger Connectivity and Intermodal Considerations in Intercity Transport Planning

Congested road and air networks, coupled with the idea that transport systems should be balanced, have spawned the field of intercity intermodal passenger transport which is based on travel across connected networks that is as seamless as possible. There is a very large number of attributes that affect the objective and subjective quality of travel. Intercity public transport planning therefore requires an excellent understanding of connections between different services and how the quality of these connections affects passengers, operators and the society at large. This article reviews the vast literature over the last 20 years from Europe, North America and Asia that is related to intercity travel, the connectivity of transport and cooperation between different modes of transport and presents a simple yet powerful way to perceive connected transport systems. The article then reviews planning practice at a variety of states worldwide, and suggests a set of focus areas of research or gaps that once filled, the authors expect, will allow further development of connected intercity passenger travel.     

The bicycle as a feedering mode: experiences from three European countries

Bike-and-ride, or the combined use of bicycle and public transport for one trip, is a multimodal alternative for the car. This paper discusses the use of bike-and-ride in three countries with widely differing bicycle cultures and infrastructures: the Netherlands, Germany and the UK. The share of the bicycle in access trips is comparable to general levels of bicycle ridership in each country, but only for train services and other fast modes of public transport. Strong similarities are found in the characteristics of bike-and-ride trips and users, in terms of travel distances, travel motives, and the impact of car availability. The majority of bike-and-ride users travels between 2 and 5 km to a public transport stop, with longer access distances reported for faster modes of public transport. Work and education are the main travel motives, with the first dominating the faster modes and the second the slower modes of public transport. Car availability hardly influences the choice for a combined use of bicycle and train, but strongly affects the levels of bike-and-ride for slower modes of transport.     

ITS applications in public transport: Improving the service to the transport system

This paper examines all the disparate technologies and techniques capable of smoothing the integration of public transport modes and services at both the urban and interurban scale. The paper focuses on the application of information technology and telematics solutions which have been designed to create as seamless a journey as possible from the point of view of the transport system user. The scope of the paper is therefore deliberately wide‐ranging and includes an examination of measures as apparently unconnected as smartcard ticketing, bus priority systems, automatic vehicle locationing, trip planning and on‐board information systems as well as new public transport services offering demand responsive travel and integration with taxi services. The paper intends to show how such technological solutions can be used to increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of fixed public transport networks in comparison to the door‐to‐door flexibility of the private car.     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

Policy analysis of third party electronic coupons for public transit fares

Mobile technologies are generating new business models for urban transport systems, as is evident from recent startups cropping up from the private sector. Public transport systems can make more use of mobile technologies than just for measuring system performance, improving boarding times, or for analyzing travel patterns. A new transaction model is proposed for public transport systems where travelers are allowed to pre-book their fares and trade that demand information to private firms. In this public-private partnership model, fare revenue management is outsourced to third party private firms such as big box retail or large planned events (such as sports stadiums and theme parks), who can issue electronic coupons to travelers to subsidize their fares. This e-coupon pricing model is analyzed using marginal cost theory for the transit service and shown to be quite effective for monopolistic coupon rights, particularly for demand responsive transit systems that feature high cost fares, non-commute travel purposes, and a closed access system with existing pre-booking requirements. However, oligopolistic scenarios analyzed using game theory and network economics suggest that public transport agencies need to take extreme care in planning and implementing such a policy. Otherwise, they risk pushing an equivalent tax on private firms or disrupting the urban economy and real estate values while increasing ridership.     

Procedures for planning multi-leg journeys with fixed-route and demand-responsive passenger transport services

This paper describes journey-planning procedures designed for use in a traveller information system covering fixed-schedule and demand-responsive public transport modes. The task is to construct a sequence of journey-legs to meet a traveller’s requirements with the least possible generalised cost, subject to time-window and other constraints. A journey may be carried out in a single leg by walking or by taking a taxi all the way from the origin to the destination, or by a sequence of one or more legs carried by public transport services sandwiched between walked segments connecting an initial pickup and final setdown stop. The public transport services may include fixed-route modes such as bus and train, and demand-responsive services running between fixed points. The main planning procedures are a high-level request-broker and a branch and bound procedure to handle multi-legged journeys; the request-broker also invokes a fleet-scheduling module to obtain bookings on demand-responsive services. The paper describes planning conditions, the planning procedures, and reduction techniques that are used to obtain acceptable computational performance. Tests with simulated demand suggest that the procedures are well suited for use in a real-time traveller information system.     

A modeling approach for matching ridesharing trips within macroscopic travel demand models

State of the art travel demand models for urban areas typically distinguish four or five main modes: walking, cycling, public transport and car. The mode car can be further split into car-driver and car-passenger. As the importance of ridesharing may increase in the coming years, ridesharing should be addressed as an additional sub or main mode in travel demand modeling. This requires an algorithm for matching the trips of suppliers (typically car drivers) and demanders (travelers of non-car modes). The paper presents a matching algorithm, which can be integrated in existing travel demand models. The algorithm works likewise with integer demand, which is typical for agent-based microscopic models, and with non-integer demand occurring in travel demand matrices of a macroscopic model. The algorithm compares two path sets of suppliers and demanders. The representation of a path in the road network is reduced from a sequence of links to a sequence of zones. The zones act as a buffer along the path, where demanders can be picked up. The travel demand model of the Stuttgart Region serves as an application example. The study estimates that the entire travel demand of all motorized modes in the Stuttgart Region could be transported by 7% of the current car fleet with 65% of the current vehicle distance traveled, if all travelers were willing to either use ridesharing vehicles with 6 seats or traditional rail.     

Characterisation of and reflections on the synergy of bicycles and public transport

The bicycle is often understood as a disjointed ‘feeder’ mode that provides access to public transport. We argue that combined use of the bicycle and public transport should be understood in a broader perspective, especially where bicycles link to higher speed and higher capacity public transport, such as the train. Cycling and public transport can have a symbiotic relationship forming a hybrid, distinct transport mode, which should be reflected in transport planning. The bicycle is as a way to soften the rigid nature of public transport and thus accommodate diverse individual travel needs and situations. Public transport can be seen as a means to dramatically extend cycling’s speed and spatial reach. We combine a system perspective with conceptual analysis to explore how, why and when this reconsideration is important. We use the Netherlands as illustrative case because of the relative maturity of its bicycle–train connections. The case shows that the synergy between rather opposite yet highly complementary aspects, high speed of the train, high accessibility of the bicycle and flexibility in combining both sub-modes, are the fundamental characteristics to understand the functioning of this system in a wider spatial context. In our conclusion we propose a research agenda, to further explore the relevance of this system for land-use and transport planning and distil wider implications for the international debate.     

Future prospects for personal security in travel by public transport

This paper reports findings from a project focused on understanding the interaction between transport technologies and user needs and perceptions in supporting personal security in travel by public transport. The research engaged over 60 experts from across the UK transport sector in a combination of interviews, workshops and scenario planning activities to address a set of four application areas in relation to secure travel. These areas were information provision, travel disruption, automated transport services and flexible transport services. Four future scenario narratives (to a 2040 time horizon) were developed for each application area. A final workshop consolidated and reviewed the narrative scenarios and pulled out key themes and priority issues for policy, practice and research for the near term. Consequently a set of policy recommendations, operator and business opportunities, knowledge gaps and research priorities were identified to support and enhance provision for personal security in travel by public transport.     

Driving to save time or saving time to drive? The enduring appeal of the private car

Use of the private car is often viewed as highly problematic. It is regularly associated with global physical, social and ecological harms such as climate change and the high incidence of lifestyle diseases, including heart disease. Attempts to address these problems generally include provision for day-to-day physical mobility based on alternatives to the private car. Labelled alternative transport, these modes include public transport, walking and cycling. Yet the private car continues as the preferred way to travel in many cities. A deeper understanding of this preference can reveal under explored sites of resistance to alternative transport modes.This paper contributes to these understandings by examining the role the car as a time saving device plays in sustaining automobility. Its central proposition is that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. The paper draws on empirical evidence on the journey to work in Australia’s largest city, Sydney. Using a systematic process of trip substitution analysis, a group of people were identified who could use alternative transport to get to work in the same amount of time it currently takes them to drive. These people then participated in a series of in-depth interviews where deeper attachments and motivations for private car use were explored.This approach has enabled development of the multi-layered understanding that informs the central proposition that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. Instead, automobility is sustained by appeals to flexibility and autonomy, as well as the interminable pull of the sensory experience provided by the cocoon of the car. This way of thinking about resistance to alternative transport exposes a series of inconsistencies between the expectations of those planning for, and those anticipated to one day use, alternative transport.     

An impact analysis of traffic image information system on driver travel choice

A driver is one of the main components in a transportation system that influences the effectiveness of any active demand management (ADM) strategies. As such, the understanding on driver behavior and their travel choice is crucial to ensure the successful implementation of ADM strategies in alleviating traffic congestion, especially in city centres. This study aims to investigate the impact of traffic information dissemination via traffic images on driver travel choice and decision. A relationship of driver travel choice with respect to their perceived congestion level is developed by an integrated framework of genetic algorithm–fuzzy logic, being a new attempt in driver behavior modeling. Results show that drivers consider changing their travel choice when the perceived congestion level is medium, in which changing departure time and diverting to alternative roads are two popular choices. If traffic congestion escalates further, drivers are likely to cancel their trip. Shifting to public transport system is the least likely choice for drivers in an auto-dependent city. These findings are important and useful to engineers as they are required to fully understand driver (user) sensitivity to traffic conditions so that relevant active travel demand management strategies could be implemented successfully. In addition, engineers could use the relationships established in this study to predict drivers’ response under various traffic conditions when carrying out modeling and impact studies.     

Latent lifestyle and mode choice decisions when travelling short distances

In the quest for sustainable travel, short distances appear the most amenable to curbing the use of the automobile. Existing studies about short trips evaluate the potential of shifting from the automobile to sustainable travel options while considering the population as homogeneous in its preferences and its tendency to accept these alternative travel options as realistic. However, this assumption appears quite unrealistic and the current study offers a different perspective: the mode choices when travelling short distances are likely related to lifestyle decisions. Short trip chains of a representative sample of the Danish population in the Copenhagen Region were analysed, and more specifically a latent class choice model was estimated to uncover latent lifestyle groups and choice specific travel behaviour. Results show that four lifestyle groups are identified in the population: car oriented, bicycle oriented, public transport oriented and public transport averse. Each lifestyle group has specific perceptions of travel time (with extremely different rates of substitution between alternative travel modes), transfer penalties in public transport trip chains, weather influence (especially on active travel modes), and trip purpose effect on mode selection. Consequently, when thinking about measures to increase the appeal of sustainable travel options, decision-makers should look at specific individuals within the population and more sensitive individuals to comfort and level-of-service improvements across the lifestyle groups.     

Valuing crowding in public transport: Implications for cost-benefit analysis

This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6 standing-passengers/m²) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions.     

Urban public transport in Europe: Technology diffusion and market organisation

Technological change and incremental technology, at various levels, are believed to have played an important role in the success of urban public transport in Europe. In this paper, a historical overview of the evolution of different transport modes across different European cities is presented. Our major concern is with the processes of diffusion of urban transport modes in European cities and, in particular, with the factors, mainly of an economic nature, that may explain their rates of adoption across Europe. Among these factors, special attention is given to the role played by the dimension and organisation of public transport markets in the rates of adoption of different public transport modes. The main conclusion of the paper is that the success of the introduction of a new transport mode appeared to be mainly related to its ability to provide cheaper and more reliable transport services compared with previous transport modes, and that, in the case of the electric tram, this was achieved by transforming of the structure of the market relating to this urban transport mode into monopolies.     

“I can do perfectly well without a car!”

This article presents the results of a study exploring travellers’ preferences for middle-distance travel using Q-methodology. Respondents rank-ordered 42 opinion statements regarding travel choice and motivations for travel in general and for car and public transport as alternative travel modes. By-person factor analysis revealed four distinct preference segments for middle-distance travel: (1) choice travellers with a preference for public transport, (2) deliberate-choice travellers, (3) choice travellers with car as dominant alternative, and (4) car-dependent travellers. These preference segments differ in terms of the levels of involvement and cognitive effort in travel decision making, the travel consideration-set and underlying motivations. The study showed that for most people there is more to travel than getting from point A to point B, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in middle-distance travel preferences. Policy implications for reducing the need for travel and promoting a modal shift from car to other travel modes are discussed.     

An assessment of the demand for new transport technology in Australia

This paper summarizes the constraints which a technological innovation in transport must satisfy if it is to achieve widespread application. The existing and likely future travel demands in Australia are reviewed, and for certain types of travel it is concluded that existing modes may become unsuitable or unacceptable. In these areas, it is possible that a new transport technology may find application. In all other areas, it is considered that existing modes, or their functional successors, will continue.

Five possible demand areas in which new transport technology may find application are identified. These are as follows:

1) High speed distribution systems may be introduced in Australian CBD's (Central Business Districts) within the next ten years. These may be progressively extended to provide radial public transport services to the CBD. It is also possible that these systems may eventually be extended to provide a dual‐mode capability in inner‐suburban areas as a partial alternative to freeway construction.

2) New town developments which may be introduced in Australia could include various forms of advanced transportation systems.

3) New aviation modes, possibly including short take off and landing aircraft operating from suburban airports may be introduced to cater for inter‐urban travel.

4) A demand‐responsive transport system to cater for the needs of the transport poor in urban areas may find limited application.

5) In the longer term, possibly by the turn of the century, an improved transport system capable of providing door‐to‐door service over the whole of an urban area and operating under a dual‐mode configuration appears to be possible. It probably would emerge from development of an incremental nature and eventually include the installation of a new technology in the then existing freeway and railway reservations in the city.     

Competition in multi-modal transport networks: A dynamic approach

We analyze the behavior of market participants in a multi-modal commuter network, where roads are not priced, but public transport has a usage fee, which is set while taking the effects on the roads into account. In particular, we analyze the difference between markets with a monopolistic public transport operator, which operates all public transport links, and markets in which separate operators own each public transport link. To do so, we consider a simple dynamic transport network consisting of two serial segments and two parallel congestible modes of transport. We obtain a reduced form of the public transport operator’s optimal fare setting problem and show that, even if the total travel demand is inelastic, serial Bertrand–Nash competition on the public transport links leads to different fares than a serial monopoly; a result not observed in a static model. This results from the fact that trip timing decisions, and therefore the generalized prices of all commuters, are influenced by all fares in the network. We then use numerical simulations to show that, contrary to the results obtained in classic studies on vertical competition, monopolistic fares are not always lower than duopolistic fares; the opposite can also occur. We also explore how different parameters influence the price differential, and how this affects welfare.     

Economical welfare maximisation analysis: assessing the use of existing Park-and-Ride services

This paper assesses travellers’ responses to the use of existing Park-and-Ride (P&R) services based on an economical welfare maximisation approach. Specifically, the paper presents a modelling framework to estimate consumer surplus and producer surplus (business profits) on the basis of modal choice probabilities. The paper draws on evidence from Stated Preference surveys conducted around two P&R sites in Sapporo, Japan, where P&R services occupy a modest market space. Overall, the results suggest that business profit increases when economical welfare is maximised, as a consequence of increased demand. It is also shown that P&R choice is not only influenced by parking fees, but also by the fares and other attributes of alternative transportation modes. Accordingly, the interactions of P&R with alternative transportation modes should be taken into consideration in any strategic transportation policies oriented towards motivating sustainable transport mode choices.     

A stochastic multimodal reliable network design problem under adverse weather conditions

This paper formulates a network design problem (NDP) for finding the optimal public transport service frequencies and link capacity expansions in a multimodal network with consideration of impacts from adverse weather conditions. The proposed NDP aims to minimize the sum of expected total travel time, operational cost of transit services, and construction cost of link capacity expansions under an acceptable level of variance of total travel time. Auto, transit, bus, and walking modes are considered in the multimodal network model for finding the equilibrium flows and travel times. In the proposed network model, demands are assumed to follow Poisson distribution, and weather‐dependent link travel time functions are adopted. A probit‐based stochastic user equilibrium, which is based on the perceived expected travel disutility, is used to determine the multimodal route of the travelers. This model also considers the strategic behavior of the public transport travelers in choosing their routes, that is, common‐line network. Based on the stochastic multimodal model, the mean and variance of total travel time are analytical estimated for setting up the NDP. A sensitivity‐based solution algorithm is proposed for solving the NDP, and two numerical examples are adopted to demonstrate the characteristics of the proposed model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.