中国机场航空货运市场时空演变研究——基于2010-2019年运输机场航空货运数据

选取2010—2019年中国运输机场货邮吞吐量数据，运用核密度分析、标准差椭圆和标准距离方法，研究航空货运市场时空演变特征。结果表明，1)2010—2019年我国机场数量增长显著，东西部差距较为明显，但中西部地区新增机场数量显著增多，机场分布逐渐趋向均衡化发展。2）航空货运市场呈现“3+1核心”的发展格局，中西部地区货运增长较快，市场集聚程度逐渐降低。3）航空货运市场重心由东向西偏移，2010—2013年向西北方向偏移，2013—2019年向西南方向转移。通过对我国航空货运市场时空演变特征的研究，能够为优化我国航空货运市场布局和制定货运发展政策提供理论依据。     

区域内机场航空货运发展竞合关系 分析与建议

本文主要从经济学的角度研究一定区域内部机场发展航空货运业务的竞争与合作关系。文章首先分析了我国货邮量在枢纽机场和支线机场的分布特征,在此基础上,应用经济学中的社会福利概念,对"是否要将某个支线机场建设发展为以航空货运功能为主的机场"这一问题进行建模分析,并从机场和托运人的角度对模型结果进行了讨论。文章最后针对模型分析讨论结果从支持支线机场走专业化航空货运发展路径、机场航空货运收费和地方政府对航空货运的补贴等方面提出了相关的政策建议。     

我国货运功能为主的机场界定及特征分析研究

随着社会对货运机场的关注度越来越高,国家也提出要研究以货运功能为主的机场布局及运行机制,但目前对其概念界定和特征缺乏分析和研究。本文从国内外研究出发,结合国内实际,提出货运功能为主的机场定义,并对国内外机场进行研判;通过分析国外类似机场,结合实际情况,从机场本身物理特性、功能及其发展模式等方面提出货运功能为主的机场主要特征,以期为行业管理部门决策和相关学者研究提供参考。     

专业货运机场的量化界定与空间特征

当前,由于专业货运枢纽机场的缺乏,我国航空物流及其相关产业的发展都面临着较大瓶颈。根据全球专业货运机场发展经验分析,"第三方物流企业/电商平台+中小城市"的航空货运枢纽建设是我国未来民航业发展的必然趋势和重要组成,也是建设民航强国、培养具有国际竞争力的优秀企业和明星城市的必由之路。本文通过分析欧美各类型货运枢纽机场,结合我国现状,提出专业货运机场量化界定和空间差异化特征,为我国专业货运机场及其临空范围的空间规划建设提供参考。     

我国机场货运设施利用现状评价及货运功能为主的机场布局思考

行业提出要研究以货运功能为主的机场布局及运行机制的需求。此类机场布局涉及众多因素,但应重点考虑现有机场的货运设施的利用情况,来判断货运设施是否满足实际需求以及哪类机场可以在现有基础上进行改造调整。本文聚焦此问题,并从货运设施设计容量、货运机位利用效率、货运区利用效率、货运区运行效率、设施处理效率等方面进行评价,提出不同量级的货邮吞吐量的机场具体利用情况,最后给出货运设施利用角度下的布局思路,以期为整体布局方案提供参考。     

“十三五”时期我国发展航空货运枢纽的战略选择

"十三五"时期是我国规划发展以航空货运为主体的枢纽机场的重要机遇期。本文分别从机场和航空货运企业角度,论证了航空货运枢纽的形成机理,总结了建设航空货运枢纽的国际经验,提出了航空货运枢纽的决策支持分析方法,提出在我国中部地区建设一个服务全国的航空货运枢纽机场、促进航空物流业态创新和临空经济结构转型的政策建议。     

贵州努力推进现代道路货运业发展

"十一五"期间,贵州省完成货运量12.08亿吨,完成货运周转量1012.65亿吨公路。较之"十五"期间分别增长80.7%和151%。2010年,全省完成的道路货运量和货运周转量在综合运输体系中(不含民航和管道运输)所占比重分别为77.9%和24.4%。行业发展遇困境从整体上看,贵州省货运市场整体呈散、小、乱的格局,具有自发性、随意性和低水平等特点,没有形成规范的货运市场。比如贵阳市主要有马路货运市场和集中式货     

法国城市货运系统调查与建模的经验

本文分析了城市货运系统建模的特殊性,总结了国外城市货运系统建模的发展历程,并详细说明了法国城市货运调查的方案、得到的主要指标和结论,以及法国城市货运模型的组成和功能原理,建议我国特大城市借鉴国外经验,逐步建立城市货运模型体系。     

机场货运发展中政策影响的可持续性研究

自2008年金融危机后,中国机场货运迎来了蓬勃发展,各地政府出台的政策对于机场货运的发展具有重要的意义。首先确定影响货邮吞吐量的因素,其次根据机场的实际发展情况做出三种假设,并在此基础上引入虚拟变量,构建多元线性回归模型,最后对郑州新郑机场、西安咸阳机场、南宁吴圩机场、海口美兰机场和无锡硕放机场进行实例验证。结果表明:机场货邮吞吐量受该地区经济和政策两个因素同时影响,政策因素对于机场货运的影响具有时效性,并且不同的政策类型对于机场货运的影响效果不同,间接支持型政策对于机场货运影响的持续性较强,直接投资型政策见效速度快,政府在颁布政策时不仅要根据机场实际情况考虑经济因素和政策因素影响的大小,还要根据机场当前的需要选择适合的政策类型。     

航空货运产业关联性及临空产业体系构建研究

本文将从航空经济链条体系结构入手,运用投入产出法对航空货运业与各产业部门的关联性进行定量分析,构建以运输成本为主要影响因素的区位选择指标分析货运枢纽机场的产业带动机制。最后本文对目前我国航空货运业对国民经济的整体贡献进行评价,并提出通过航空货运业带动区域经济发展的政策建议。     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Optimization of bus stop locations for improving transit accessibility

A mathematical model is developed in this paper to improve the accessibility of a bus service. To formulate the optimization model, a segment of a bus route is given, on which a number of demand entry points are distributed realistically. The objective total cost function (i.e. the sum of supplier and user costs) is minimized by optimizing the number and locations of stops, subject to non‐additive users' value of time. A numerical example is designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method thus developed to optimize the bus stop location problem. The sensitivity of the total cost to various parameters (e.g. value of users' time, access speed, and demand density) and the effect of the parameters on the optimal stop locations are analyzed and discussed.     

Productive efficiency and ownership of urban bus services

The established ownership mix of urban bus operations in Australia provides a unique opportunity to investigate the productivity differences between public and private bus service supply. Using duality theory in economics which links economic indices of factor productivity to the cost structure of a firm, we develop empirical measures of total and partial productivity of inputs, and adjust the differences for the effects of ownership status and operating environment. The evidence supports the notion that private supply of public passenger transport in general has performed more efficiently in the past than public supply, although the differences in productivity need not continue in the future.     

Governing autonomous vehicles: emerging responses for safety,liability, privacy,cybersecurity, and industry risks

ABSTRACT

The benefits of autonomous vehicles (AVs) are widely acknowledged, but there are concerns about the extent of these benefits and AV risks and unintended consequences. In this article, we first examine AVs and different categories of the technological risks associated with them. We then explore strategies that can be adopted to address these risks, and explore emerging responses by governments for addressing AV risks. Our analyses reveal that, thus far, governments have in most instances avoided stringent measures in order to promote AV developments and the majority of responses are non-binding and focus on creating councils or working groups to better explore AV implications. The US has been active in introducing legislations to address issues related to privacy and cybersecurity. The UK and Germany, in particular, have enacted laws to address liability issues; other countries mostly acknowledge these issues, but have yet to implement specific strategies. To address privacy and cybersecurity risks strategies ranging from introduction or amendment of non-AV specific legislation to creating working groups have been adopted. Much less attention has been paid to issues such as environmental and employment risks, although a few governments have begun programmes to retrain workers who might be negatively affected.     

站场完整性管理技术研究

管道完整性管理技术已经基本实现了工业化应用,然而站场完整性管理作为管道系统完整性管理的一部分还没有引起足够的重视,但是站场完整性管理很重要。介绍了基于资产完整性管理（AIM）的站场完整性管理技术概念及特点;接着对比了国内外的发展差距,重点介绍了站场完整性技术核心方法;最后指出了国内开展站场完整性管理发展的方向。     

Crash analysis at intersections in the CBD: A survival analysis model

Enhancing the safety level of urban roads especially in CBDs is paramount. Due to a large number of intersections in what is usually a grid road system in the CBDs, we investigate crashes occurring in and around an intersection. The question of interest in this study is: does the nature of crashes at intersections differ from those of the roads at midblock? Stated more precisely, considering the intersection as a reference point, does the distance to the reference point (i.e. midblock locations on the roads) correlate with different types of crashes compared to that of the intersection? A right answer can lead traffic engineers and safety auditors to propose different safety measures at intersections and the midblock locations. As a pilot study, we collected the last 9 years crash data of the CBD of Melbourne, Australia. For the first time, we employ Survival Analysis models -including Exponential, Weibull, and Log-logistic- to investigate a space-dependent phenomenon (i.e. accidents at proximity to the intersection). Of the outcome, highlights are: (i) police presence at busy intersections during busy night outs and weekends highly improves the pedestrian safety (ii) raised crossings at midblock locations lower likelihood of crashes of pedestrians as well as cars, (iii) lighting conditions at intersections must be watched and kept at a high level. (iv) Severity, likelihood, and location have no known association with the level of congestion. In other words, safety is first, always and everywhere. The results can be of interest to traffic authorities and policy makers in reinforcing traffic calming measures in the cities. The codes developed in this study are made available to the research community to be used in further studies.     

Fatigue in transport: a review of exposure,risks, checks and controls*

Human fatigue continues to threaten safe transport. There are claims that employers of operators should do more to mitigate the risks, and several regulators are promoting fatigue-risk management in the context of safety management systems (SMS). The current paper reviews fatigue-related risk and exposure factors and control measures for operators of land- and sea-based transport forms. Our review identifies 13 types of measures for the monitoring or control of fatigue risks: optimal staffing; optimal schedule design; optimisation of breaks/naps; monitoring of actual hours worked; optimisation of work content; monitoring and feedback of actual sleep; health screening and treatment; promotion of recovery from work; fitness-for-duty testing; monitoring of fatigue symptoms while operating; control of fatigue while operating; performance monitoring and assistance; and fatigue-proofing. We also identify two systemic measures needed to anchor risk mitigation in SMS: organisational learning and training/other. By structuring monitoring and control measures along Dawson and McCulloch’s [Managing fatigue: It’s about sleep. Sleep Medicine Reviews, 9(5), 365–380] fatigue-risk trajectory, a framework is obtained that acts as a guide for fatigue-risk management by transport employers. To inform transport managers further, evaluations are needed of the effectiveness of individual control measures as well as whole fatigue-risk management interventions.     

统筹区域性交通物流促进循环经济发展

文章结合贺州交通物流发展状况,分析当前制约贺州市物流产业发展的因素,提出了利用循环经济理念。倡导通过节约资源,实施差异化发展等途径,推动贺州市区域性交通物流沿着循环经济发展需要采取的措施,探讨了贺州物流今后十年的阶段性发展思路。     

海底管道单项高风险因素分析

为了准确掌握海底管道在运行阶段面临的各种单项高风险因素,通过采用相应模型计算和OLGA模拟等方法,以某管道为例,得到了对管道安全影响较大的单项高风险因素为海底管道埋深、海床变化、析蜡可能性、水合物堵塞可能性、结垢、沥青质沉积、抛锚与拖网干扰等、腐蚀、悬跨影响等。文中给出了相应的风险减缓措施,为解决生产实践中海底管道存在的安全隐患提供了依据,预防海底管道事故的发生。