铁路单列车票额分配优化研究

针对我国铁路目前票价单一、不能有效调节客流,票额分配对客流波动适应性较差的问题,根据收益管理理论,以铁路给定预测客流为依据,在基本票额分配中预留部分可灵活分配的票额作为全程通售票额,以应对客流预测误差等带来的影响;对区段剩余票额,按照尽可能分配长途票额的原则建立剩余能力优化模型,并为剩余票额制定动态票价来吸引客流、提高客运收益。算例结果表明,本文提出的票额分配模型能适应客流需求的波动,避免大量票额调整工作,根据不同购票时段的需求特点,对剩余能力进行动态定价来吸引潜在客流,提高铁路客运收益,为铁路票额分配和动态定价提供了优化方法。     

吉珲铁路对资源保护区鱼类种质影响及缓解措施分析

新建吉林至珲春铁路(以下简称"吉珲铁路")西起吉林市,东至延边朝鲜族自治州珲春市,线路全长365.352km。该项目连接图们口岸、珲春口岸,主要为通道内城际客流和旅游客流服务,对构筑东北地区快速客运网及增进民族团结、巩固国防等具有重要意义。     

德国柏林铁路客运枢纽特点分析

本文剖析柏林铁路客运枢纽,分析了该枢纽的客流集散特征、列车开行方式、与城市交通的结合及土地利用效率;综合分析结果,得出了对我国城市铁路客运枢纽规划设计有借鉴意义的启示。     

不等不靠 主动出击——从客流高峰市场新动向看客运企业的服务转型

每逢十一、春节等客流高峰期，铁路客运的普通列车一票难求状况依然，航空乘客爆满。但是公路客运却没见到往年那种候车室客满为患、车站人山人海的景象，期待中的客流高峰并没有如期出现，相反在个别线路上还出现了车辆吃不饱的少有景象。虽然从交通运输部公布的道路客运春运数据看，     

苏州轨道交通客流分析预测系统框架设计研究

苏州轨道交通目前仍未有整合地铁、有轨电车、城际铁路的客流分析预测系统。在对现有轨道数据分析的基础上,确定系统功能的定位和设计原则,将客流分析预测系统分为基于大数据及出行链的乘客出行特征分析、多场景需求预测及灵敏度分析、突发事件下影响多方式轨道交通客流分析、多方式轨道交通客流状态实时推演、客流分析与预测展示等5个子系统,初步形成了苏州轨道交通客流分析预测的系统框架。该框架为城市交通管理及控制提供了更好的辅助决策,为提升苏州市交通服务水平给予参考。     

对铁路客票调价的若干思考

<正> 1995年10月1日起,国家对铁路客运票价进行了上调,既增加了铁路营业性收入、减少政策性亏损,又缓解了铁路客运压力,这不能不说是件好事。但同时客票调价在一定程度上诱发了铁路部分客流流失,影响了铁路客运收入的预期增加,以杭州铁路分局为例,1995年第四季度由于旅客发送量减少,客运收入虽增长30％,与客票上涨率51.8％幅度相比,相差20多个百分点。如果客运量继续下滑,超过一定幅度后,客运收入不但不会增加,反而会减少。这既不是铁路客票调整的目的,又削弱了铁路服务于社会的功能,不能不引起我们的关注。笔者     

高铁枢纽片区客流出行规模研究——以阜宁南站为例

随着我国高速铁路建设进程的加快,与之相关的高铁综合客运枢纽建设也在如火如荼地进行。通过分析高铁枢纽片区的客流构成,分别利用弹性系数法和四阶段法预测模型,构建客流规模预测体系。以阜宁南站综合客运枢纽为例,验证了分析方法的合理性。     

基于圈层的轨道交通一体化客流预测方法：以粤港澳大湾区为视角

为推动粤港澳大湾区轨道交通一体化的持续发展，从区域轨道客流预测的复杂性作为切入点，在阐述粤港澳大湾区多层次轨道交通系统发展概况的基础上，进行湾区交通圈层划分，并论述了不同圈层出行特征的差异及联系；通过现有城市轨道交通和铁路客流预测方法的回顾及适应性分析，肯定了“四阶段法”类预测方法在轨道交通规划设计阶段应用的优越性；进而提出圈层分级的轨道交通预测思路，并以四阶段法为核心，搭建粤港澳大湾区尺度下的轨道交通一体化客流预测框架。     

不等不靠 主动出击——从客流高峰市场新动向看客运企业的服务转型

针对客运市场出现的诸多新问题,笔者认为,道路客运经营者再也不能按照原来的思维去坐等客源,也不要把全部希望寄托在管理部门加大力度整治运输市场上,而是应该根据市场的变化而变化,就像对付高铁冲击那样认真对待运输市场出现的新情况。每逢十一、春节等客流高峰期,铁路客运的普通列车一票难求状况依然,航空乘客爆满。但是公路客运却没见到往年那种候车室客满为患、车站人山人海的景象,期待中的客流高峰并没有如期出现,相反在个别线路上还出现了车辆吃不饱的少有景象。虽然从交通运输部公布的道路客运春运数据看,客流量总体上是呈现     

2007:春运观察之公路篇

<正>2007年2月3日,一年一度的春运正式拉开大幕,铁路、公路、水路、民航开始迎接数以亿计的客流,运力全员投入,线路加车加载。继铁路春运取消票价上浮后,今年春运公路旅客运输票价也不再上浮。今年春运北京市公路长途客运情况如何?铁路票价不再上浮,对公路长途客流有没有影响?春运第一天,本刊记者走访了北京市最大的公路长途客运站赵公口客运站。     

Estimation of rail passenger flow and system utilization with ticket transaction and gate data

Capturing the dynamics in passenger flow and system utilization over time and space is extremely important for railway operators. Previous studies usually estimated passenger flow using automatic fare collection data, and their applications are limited to a single stopping pattern and/or a single type of ticket. However, the conventional railway in Taiwan provides four types of ticket and five types of train service with a number of stopping patterns. This study develops a comprehensive framework and corresponding algorithms to map passenger flow and evaluate system utilization. A multinomial logit model is constructed and incorporated in the algorithms to estimate passenger train selection behavior. Results from the empirical studies demonstrate that the developed framework and algorithms can successfully match passengers with train services. With this tool, operators can efficiently examine passenger flow and service utilization, thereby quickly adjusting their service strategies accordingly to improve system performance.     

Risk‐based stochastic equilibrium assignment model in augmented urban railway network

This study developed a methodology to model the passenger flow stochastic assignment in urban railway network (URN) with the considerations of risk attitude. Through the network augmentation technique, the urban railway system is represented by an augmented network in which the common traffic assignment method can be used directly similar to a generalized network form. Using the analysis of different cases including deterministic travel state, emergent event, peak travel, and completely stochastic state, we developed a stochastic equilibrium formulation to capture these stochastic considerations and give effects of risk aversion level on the URN performance, the passenger flow at transfer stations through numerical studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于绿色经济的高速铁路潜在价值研究

Logit模型是一种较为成熟的旅客运输分担率分析方法,它在旅客运输领领域有着广泛的应用。参照绿色经济的定义,首先,本文分析各运输方式的安全性效用、经济性效用、时效性效用、准时性效用、方便性效用、舒适性效用和绿色性效用7个服务特征属性并建立广义效用函数;其次,研究高速铁路客流分担率模型;再次,运用相关数据及最大似然估计法来确定模型的参数;最后,以武汉~广州间各运输方式的客流分担率来研究该模型的应用。     

Exploring passenger anxiety associated with train travel

Although people are often encouraged to use public transportation, the riding experience is not always comfortable. This study uses service items to measure passenger anxieties by applying a conceptual model based on the railway passenger service chain perspective. Passenger anxieties associated with train travel are measured using a modern psychometric method, the Rasch model. This study surveys 412 train passengers. Analytical results indicate that the following service items cause passenger anxiety during trains travel: crowding, delays, accessibility to a railway station, searching for the right train on a platform, and transferring trains. Empirical results obtained using the Rasch approach can be used to derive an effective strategy to reduce train passenger anxiety. This empirical study also demonstrates that anxiety differs based on passenger sex, age, riding frequency, and trip type. This information will also prove useful for transportation planners and policy-makers when considering the special travel needs of certain groups to create a user-friendly railway travel environment that promotes public use.     

Marginal railway track renewal costs: A survival data approach

In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for total tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.     

Passenger centric train timetabling problem

The aim of this paper is to analyze and to improve the current planning process of the passenger railway service in light of the recent railway market changes. In order to do so, we introduce the Passenger Centric Train Timetabling Problem. The originality of our approach is that we account for the passenger satisfaction in the design of the timetable. We consider both types of timetable(s): cyclic and non-cyclic. The problem is modeled as a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem with an objective of maximizing the train operating company’s profit while maintaining ε level of passenger satisfaction. The model does not take into account conflicts between trains and does not adjust dwell times at stopping stations among the lines. By solving the model for various values of ε, the approximated Pareto frontier is constructed. The analysis, based on an experiment using realistic data, shows that an improvement of passenger satisfaction while maintaining a low profit loss for the railway company can be achieved. A sensitivity analysis on passenger congestion illustrates a quantitative evidence that the non-cyclic timetables can account better for high density demand in comparison to cyclic timetables.     

基于高速铁路常旅客计划的全流程智慧行李服务方案构建

随着"铁路畅行"和"客运提质计划"的提出,提供高质量、个性化的旅客服务成为高速铁路客运发展的关键方向。为打造全新旅客行李服务概念,基于"铁路畅行"会员常旅客计划,构建全流程、门到门智慧行李服务方案,从旅客需求角度出发,采取"人货分离"模式,突破传统站内行李服务的模式,拓宽业务场景,延长商业链,形成一套系统完整的方案。全流程智慧行李服务作为一项新的服务模式,为培育旅客需求,提高顾客粘合度,挖掘高铁行李服务的潜在市场,优化铁路盈利结构,加快构建铁路客运服务体系,提升铁路在运输市场的竞争力提供支持。     

Estimation method for railway passengers’ train choice behavior with smart card transaction data

Smart card systems have become the predominant method of collecting public transport fares in Japan. Transaction data obtained through smart cards have resulted in a large amount of archived information on how passengers use public transportation. The data have the potential to be used for modeling passenger behavior and demand for public transportation. This study focused on train choices made by railway passengers. If each passenger’s train choice can be identified over a long period of time, this information would be useful for improving the customer relationship management of the railway company and for improving train timetables. The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for estimating which train is boarded by each smart card holder. This paper presents a methodology and an algorithm for estimation using long-term transaction data. To validate the computation time and accuracy of the estimation, an empirical analysis is carried out using actual transaction data provided by a railway company in Japan. The results show that the proposed method is capable of estimating passenger usage patterns from smart card transaction data collected over a long time period.     

Passenger oriented railway disruption management by adapting timetables and rolling stock schedules

In passenger railway operations, unforeseen events require railway operators to adjust their timetable and their resource schedules. The passengers will also adapt their routes to their destinations. When determining the new timetable and rolling stock schedule, the railway operator has to take passenger behavior into account. The operator should increase the capacity of trains for which the operator expects more demand than on a regular day. Furthermore, the operator could increase the frequency of the trains that serve stations with an additional demand.This paper describes a real-time disruption management approach which integrates the rescheduling of the rolling stock and the timetable by taking the changed passenger demand into account. The timetable decisions are limited to additional stops of trains at stations at which they normally would not call. Several variants of the approach are suggested, with the difference in how to determine which additional stops should be executed.Real-time rescheduling requires fast solutions. Therefore a heuristic approach is used. We demonstrate the performance of the several variants of our algorithm on realistic instances of Netherlands Railways, the major railway operator in the Netherlands.     

Simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment

Passenger transportation in most large cities relies on an efficient mass transit system, whose line configuration has direct impacts on the system operating cost, passenger travel time and line transfers. Unfortunately, the interplay between transit line configuration and passenger line assignment has been largely ignored in the literature. This paper presents a model for simultaneous optimization of transit line configuration and passenger line assignment in a general network. The model is formulated as a linear binary integer program and can be solved by the standard branch and bound method. The model is illustrated with a couple of minimum spanning tree networks and a simplified version of the general Hong Kong mass transit railway network.