Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models

Models of household vehicle ownership decisions do not suffice as a basis for forecasting the size and composition of aggregate vehicle holdings. Forecasting applications require that such models be imbedded in systems describing the operation of the automobile market. This paper presents a new model of short run equilibrium in the automobile market. The short run is a period within which new car designs and prices are fixed but used car prices adjust competitively to market forces. The magnitude and mix of new car sales, the extent of used car scrappage and the composition of used car holdings are determined in equilibrium with used car prices. An econometric version of the market model has been estimated on Israeli data and applied to analyze the impact of vehicle tax policy on automobile holdings in Israel. The paper describes this application.     

An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction

The French government has implemented a periodical vehicle inspection program, which aims at maintaining proper functioning of the vehicle and ensuring the emissions control systems installed on the vehicle work properly. Also, an incentive program for scrapping old vehicles was introduced in 1994 through 1996 to promote the replacement of those vehicles with higher emissions by newer vehicles with lower emissions. A hazard-based duration model of household vehicle transaction behavior has been developed in this study to examine the effects of the inspection program and the grant for scrappage on vehicle transaction timing. The model is developed as a competing risks model assuming the following three types of competing risks: replacing one of the vehicles in the household fleet, disposing of one vehicle in the fleet, and acquiring one vehicle to add to the fleet. The empirical analysis is carried out using the panel data of French households' vehicle ownership from 1984 to 1998, obtained by the panel survey called Parc-Auto, which has been conducted by a French marketing firm, SOFRES, since 1976. The long panel observation period facilitates the introduction of macro-economic indicators into the model, enabling the analysis to distinguish the effects of policy measures from macro-economic factors. The empirical results indicate that the expected vehicle holding duration becomes 1.3 years longer under the inspection program than before the program commenced, given that the vehicle is replaced by another vehicle at the end of the holding duration; and that the conditional probability of replacing a vehicle aged 10 years and over becomes 1.2 times higher, and the average holding duration becomes shorter by 3.3 years, when the grant for scrappage is available.     

Comparison of car ownership models

Car ownership models found in the academic literature (with a focus on the recent literature and on models developed for transport planning) are classified into a number of model types. The different model types are compared on a number of criteria: inclusion of demand and supply side of the car market, level of aggregation, dynamic or static model, long‐ or short‐run forecasts, theoretical background, inclusion of car use, data requirements, treatment of business cars, car‐type segmentation, inclusion of income, of fixed and/or variable car cost, of car quality aspects, of licence holding, of sociodemographic variables and of attitudinal variables, and treatment of scrappage.     

Making an Informed Vehicle Scrappage Decision

Abstract

According to the US Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the number of publicly owned vehicles in the USA reached 3 913 999 in 2003. In order to maintain a stable vehicle fleet, government agencies must repeatedly make vehicle scrappage decisions because older vehicles must first retire to make room for newer vehicles. Typically, these decisions are made based on a deterministic ranking evaluation model to select candidate vehicles for replacement. The paper applied an objective and probabilistic method to a vehicle dataset collected by the DuPage County Forest Preserve District ((DCFPD), in the state of Illinois). A Weibull‐form survival model with time‐varying covariate and unobserved heterogeneity was estimated on the dataset. The results suggest that in addition to the fact that vehicle age is negatively related to the vehicle’s survival probability, there are other variables that also appear influential. The survival probabilities of alternative fuel vehicles are similar to those of reformulated unleaded gasoline vehicles. The results suggest that a probabilistic and objective model can benefit government agencies in their vehicle scrappage decisions.     

Demand forecasting of diesel passenger car considering consumer preference and government regulation in South Korea

Changing market regulations in South Korea have allowed diesel-fueled passenger cars in the domestic market. The diffusion of diesel cars is tied to issues of environmental impact, energy supply and demand, and changes in tax revenue. Policymakers can influence demand for diesel vehicles to protect social welfare and to observe international environmental protection laws. On the supply side, carmakers need to know consumer preferences regarding new vehicles to arrive at development strategies.This study uses microsimulated demand forecasting to address these issues and predict consumer demand for diesel passenger cars. The model accommodates governmental policies and car attributes such as price and engine efficiency. We find that consumers will likely prefer diesel passenger cars to gasoline ones due to the low operation costs of the former in spite of high purchase price when diesel is relatively cheaper than gasoline. Finally we find that diesel passenger cars will capture a 42% market penetration ratio under the pricing system suggested by the Ministry of Environment of Korea.     

A nested logit model of automobile holdings for one vehicle households

This paper presents a model of automobile choice by single vehicle households. This effort is distinguished from previous disaggregate automobile holdings models primarily by the use of the nested logit model rather than the more restrictive multinomial logit model. We present a 2-step estimation technique that provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parameter estimates, yet is tractable for very large choice sets. Using disaggregate data on 237 one-vehicle households we estimate the unknown parameters on an automobile choice model containing 785 individual makes, models and vintages of passenger vehicles.     

Impact of electric vehicles on existing car usage: A mixed multiple discrete–continuous extreme value model approach

This study investigates how the introduction of electric vehicles may influence the usage of existing cars. A survey of 250 households in South Korea is used to analyze a future automobile market that includes electric vehicles taking into account the heterogeneity of consumer preferences and usage patterns. Based on consumer preferences, the future market share of various vehicles is estimated and the impact of promoting the usage of electric vehicles by government subsidization and tax incentives is analyzed.     

Equilibrium holdings distributions in durable asset markets

The stock of durable goods can be represented by its holdings distribution, defined as the joint distribution of age and physical condition of the population of durable goods. This paper derives the holdings distribution which arises under stationary conditions when durable goods deteriorate according to a Markov process. We show that given the scrappage and utilization decisions of consumers, the holdings distribution F(x) is an equilibrium distribution of an associated regenerative Markov process. Using a basic result from the theory of regenerative stochastic processes, we characterize F(x) as the ratio of the expected number of periods the durable's condition is better than x to the expected lifetime of the asset. Using data from the 1977 National Transportation Survey we illustrate these results by estimating a simple two-parameter model of automobile deterioration and comparing the implied distribution of automobile holdings to the actual distribution.     

Individual characteristics and stated preferences for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles: A discrete choice analysis for Germany

With respect to the German goal of a transition to a lead market for electromobility within a short time period, this paper empirically examines the preferences for alternative energy sources or propulsion technologies in vehicles and particularly for electric vehicles. The data stem from a stated preference discrete choice experiment with 598 potential German car buyers. In order to simulate a realistic future purchase situation, seven vehicle types were incorporated in each of the six choice sets, i.e. hybrid, gas, biofuel, hydrogen, and electric vehicles besides common gasoline and diesel vehicles. The econometric analysis with flexible multinomial probit models reveals that potential car buyers in Germany currently have a low stated preference for electric, hydrogen, and hybrid vehicles. While our paper also discusses the impact of common vehicle attributes such as purchase price or service station availability, it particularly considers the effect of socio-demographic and environmental awareness variables. The estimation results reveal that younger potential car buyers have a higher stated preference for hydrogen and electric vehicles, males have a higher stated choice of hydrogen vehicles, and environmentally aware potential car buyers have a higher stated preference for hydrogen and electric vehicles. These results suggest that common policy instruments such as the promotion of research and development, taxation, or subsidization in the field of electromobility could be supplemented by strategies to increase the social acceptance of alternative vehicle types that are directly oriented to these population groups. Methodologically, our study highlights the importance of the inclusion of taste persistence across the choice sets and a high number of random draws in the Geweke–Hajivassiliou–Keane simulator in the simulated maximum likelihood estimation of the multinomial probit models.     

我国商用车电动化发展趋势分析

发展新能源汽车发展是缓解能源危机和环境污染的重大战略举措,也是汽车产业升级必由之路。近几年在政策大力支持下,新能源汽车产业突飞猛进,尤其乘用车领域,涌现出大批优秀企业与产品,市场化趋势明显。但是在商用车领域,新能源汽车发展受政策影响明显,随着补贴政策的退坡,规模有所萎缩。从全球大环境和国内环境来看,未来商用车领域电动化存在很大的发展空间。本文从市场现状切入,结合新能源汽车发展政策环境,运用SWOT方法分析我国商用车电动化发展趋势。     

Modelling heavy vehicle car‐following behaviour in congested traffic conditions

This study develops a car‐following model in which heavy vehicle behaviour is predicted separately from passenger car. Heavy vehicles have different characteristics and manoeuvrability compared with passenger cars. These differences could create problems in freeway operations and safety under congested traffic conditions (level of service E and F) particularly when there is high proportion of heavy vehicles. With increasing numbers of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, model estimates of the traffic flow could be degrades because existing car‐following models do not differentiate between these vehicles and passenger cars. This study highlighted some of the differences in car‐following behaviour of heavy vehicle and passenger drivers and developed a model considering heavy vehicles. In this model, the local linear model tree approach was used to incorporate human perceptual imperfections into a car‐following model. Three different real world data sets from a stretch of freeway in USA were used in this study. Two of them were used for the training and testing of the model, and one of them was used for evaluation purpose. The performance of the model was compared with a number of existing car‐following models. The results showed that the model, which considers the heavy vehicle type, could predict car‐following behaviour of drivers better than the existing models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Control of vehicle ownership and market competition: theory and Singapore’s experience with the vehicle quota system

This paper studies the impact of vehicle quota system on the market structure of Singapore’s car distributorship industry. Using recently available data, we analyzed the populations and new registrations of different brands of passenger car and motorcycle. We found an increase in market concentration in the car distributorship industry, as the market shares of the top distributors have increased steadily, even though the annual growth rate of vehicle population is capped at 3% per annum. We also found that average dealership markups for passenger cars for the period August–September 2002 are similar to those reported in earlier studies. We relate these empirical findings to a theoretical model of a differentiated-good oligopoly operating under an industry sales constraint.     

Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the determinants of new vehicle registrations in European Union (EU) countries by focusing on four particular segments – passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles. A panel cointegration analysis for a panel of 13 EU countries during the period from January 1999 to August 2010 shows that new vehicle sales have long-run cointegration relations with vehicle prices, consumer confidence, income, interest rates, fuel prices, industrial production, and trade. More effective factors in determining new vehicle sales appear to be trade, interest rates, and industrial production.     

The role of charging and refuelling infrastructure in supporting zero-emission vehicle sales

Widespread uptake of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (collectively zero-emissions vehicles or ZEVs) could help many regions achieve deep greenhouse gas mitigation goals. Using the case of Canada, this study investigates the extent to which increasing ZEV charging and refuelling availability may boost ZEV sales relative to other ZEV-supportive policies. We adapt a version of the Respondent-based Preferences and Constraints (REPAC) model using 2017 survey data from 1884 Canadian new vehicle-buyers to simulate the sales impacts of increasing electric vehicle charging access at home, work, public destinations, and on highways, as well as increasing hydrogen refuelling station access. REPAC is built from a stated preference choice model and represents constraints in supply and consumer awareness, as well as dynamics in ZEV policy out to 2030. Results suggest that new ZEV market share from 2020 to 2030 does not substantially benefit from increased infrastructure. Even when electric charging and hydrogen refuelling access are simulated to reach “universally” available levels by 2030, ZEV sales do not rise by more than 1.5 percentage points above the baseline trajectory. On the other hand, REPAC simulates ZEV market share rising as high as 30% by 2030 with strong ZEV-supportive policies, even without the addition of charging or refuelling infrastructure. These findings stem from low consumer valuation of infrastructure found in the stated preference model. Results suggest that achieving ambitious ZEV sale targets requires a comprehensive suite of policies beyond a focus on charging and refueling infrastructure.     

What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany

Commercial passenger cars are a possible early market segment for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Compared to privately owned vehicles, the commercial vehicle segment is characterized by higher mileage and a higher share of vehicle sales in Germany. To this point, there are only few studies which analyze the commercial passenger car sector and arrive at contradictory results due to insufficient driving profile data with an observation period of only one day. Here, we calculate the market potential of PEVs for the German commercial passenger car sector by determining the technical and economical potential for PEVs in 2020 from multi-day driving profiles. We find that commercial vehicles are better suited for PEVs than private ones since they show higher average annual mileage and drive more regularly. About 87% of the analyzed three-week vehicle profiles can technically be fulfilled by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an electric driving range of about 110 km while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with an electric range of 40 km could obtain an electric driving share of 60% on average. In moderate energy price scenarios, PEVs can reach a market share of 2–4% in the German commercial passenger car sales by 2020 and especially the large commercial branches (Trade, Manufacturing, Administrative services and Other services) are important. However, our analysis shows a high sensitivity of results to energy and battery prices as well as electric consumptions.     

Use of hybrid vehicles in Japan: An analysis of used car market data

Despite the rapid market penetration of hybrid vehicles (HVs), their usage and contributions to environmental protection have not been examined by vehicle traveling data. In this paper, we analyzed Japan’s used car market data to understand how HVs are used on the street. We find GV drivers with high travel demand switched from GVs to HVs during the transition period. Despite HV owners driving much longer distances than conventional gasoline vehicle (GV) owners, they emit less carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, owing to better fuel economy. We also find that HV owners spend roughly the same amount of money annually as GV owners. However, the per-kilometer travel cost of HVs is much lower than that of GVs even if the depreciation cost of the vehicle and vehicle related taxes are included in the analysis.     

Simulation model performance analysis of a multiple station shared vehicle system

As an alternative transportation paradigm, shared vehicle systems have become increasingly popular in recent years. Shared vehicle systems typically consist of a fleet of vehicles that are used several times each day by different users. One of the main advantages of shared vehicle systems is that they reduce the number of vehicles required to meet total travel demand. An added energy/emissions benefit comes when low-polluting (e.g., electric) vehicles are used in the system. In order to evaluate operational issues such as vehicle availability, vehicle distribution, and energy management, a unique shared vehicle system computer simulation model has been developed. As an initial case study, the model was applied to a resort community in Southern California. The simulation model has a number of input parameters that allow for the evaluation of numerous scenarios. Several measures of effectiveness have been determined and are calculated to characterize the overall system performance. For the case study, it was found that the most effective number of vehicles (in terms of satisfying customer wait time) is in the range of 3–6 vehicles per 100 trips in a 24 h day. On the other hand, if the number of relocations also is to be minimized, there should be approximately 18–24 vehicles per 100 trips. Various inputs to the model were varied to see the overall system response. The model shows that the shared vehicle system is most sensitive to the vehicle-to-trip ratio, the relocation algorithm used, and the charging scheme employed when electric vehicles are used. A preliminary cost analysis was also performed, showing that such a system can be very competitive with present transportation systems (e.g., rental cars, taxies, etc.).     

Electric vehicles in car sharing networks – Challenges and simulation model analysis

In this paper, we examine the operation of electric vehicles in urban car sharing networks. After surveying strategic and operational differences and comparing them to gasoline-fueled cars, a simulation study was carried out. The proposed discrete event simulation tool covered important operational characteristics of electric vehicles, including realistic charging routines. Different vehicle types were compared under various conditions and on multiple markets to determine their performance. The data obtained indicated the competitiveness of electric vehicles in car sharing networks. Key success factors included advantageous relations between the market environment (e.g. electricity and fuel prices) and important characteristics of electric cars (e.g. price and range).     

Estimation of saturation flow at signalised intersections of developing cities: a micro-simulation modelling approach

Traffic characteristics and operations at the signalised intersections of developing cities are significantly different from those at the similar intersections of cities in developed countries. Considering this, a new microscopic simulation technique, where a co-ordinate approach to modelling vehicle location is adopted, has been used for modelling the traffic operations at signalised intersections of developing cities. The model has been calibrated and validated on the basis of data collected from Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. It has been found that the concept of passenger car unit (PCU), which is widely used as a signal design parameter, is not applicable in case of mixed traffic comprising of both motorised and non-motorised vehicles. Therefore, using the developed simulation model the saturation flows at signalised intersections are investigated in an aggregate form of vehicles per hour. It has also been found that saturation flows in terms of aggregate vehicles are very much dependent on the approach width, turning proportion and composition of the traffic mix. Using the simulation results, an equation has also been regressed in order to be able to estimate the saturation flow from the influencing variables like road width, turning proportion, percentage of heavy and non-motorised vehicles.     

Impact of vehicle usage on consumer choice of hybrid electric vehicles

We analyze the vehicle usage and consumer profile attributes extracted from both National Household Travel Survey and Vehicle Quality Survey data to understand the impact of vehicle usage upon consumers’ choices of hybrid electric vehicles in the US. In addition, the key characteristics of hybrid vehicle drivers are identified to determine the market segmentations of hybrid electric vehicles and the critical attributes to include in the choice model. After a compatibility test of two datasets, a pooled choice model combining both data sources illustrates the significant influences of vehicle usage upon consumers’ choices of hybrid electric vehicles. Even though the data-bases have in the past been used independently to study travel behavior and vehicle quality ratings, here we use them together.