Transport emissions and travel behaviour: A critical review of recent European Union and UK policy initiatives

There are clear signs of a shift in the UK transport policy in response to concerns about the environmental impacts of road transport and anxieties about the implications of the projected future growth in demand.Much of the framework of UK transport policy is now determined at the overall European Union level. To date most European legislation and policy proposals have been concerned with reducing the specific externalities associated with the transport sector, with none of the measures involved likely to have more than a marginal impact on the growth in demand. The emerging research evidence suggests however that the private costs of car use in Europe may fall substantially short of its total social costs and there is an important emerging policy debate about how this gap might be closed.The UK has introduced a policy package designed to reduce the growth of car travel and its environmental impact, within which land-use planning measures feature prominently. The land-use policies, which to some extent represent a reassertion of many traditional UK planning policies, include: an emphasis on focussing new development in urban areas, increasing residential densities, strengthening the role of existing centres and improving provision for walking and cycling.A number of factors will constrain the effectiveness of the package in practice. There are also concerns about its impact on key environmental objectives, including air quality. There are important questions too about the welfare effects of increasing densities and about the wider impacts of the package on economic efficiency.     

An integrated model system and policy evaluation tool for maximizing mobility under environmental capacity constraints: A case study in Dalian City,China

This paper presents an integrated model system for mobility maximization based on a quantified specification of environmental capacity, and evaluates policy interaction and effectiveness by simulating a number of policy scenarios. The system is designed to specify the maximum level of car ownership and number of trips by private and public modes subject to an environmental capacity constraint defined as the frontier emission under maximum system efficiency. Four types of hypothetical policies (population change, urban sprawl, land-use pattern and network improvement) are designed and the effects of 13 policy scenarios are simulated using data of Dalian City, China. Results reveal that the integrated model system reacts sensitively to policy interventions. The urban sprawl reflected in a changing residential distribution from central to suburban areas is most instrumental from the perspective of pollution alleviation. If the goal is to simultaneously reduce emissions while accommodating mobility, two combinational policy scenarios outperform all others.     

Integrated modeling of urban hierarchy and transportation network planning

A major problem addressed during the preparation of spatial development plans relates to the accessibility to facilities where services of general interest such as education, health care, public safety, and justice are offered to the population. In this context, planners typically aim at redefining the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region under study (with a class of facilities associated with each level of hierarchy) and redesigning the region’s transportation network. Traditionally, these two subjects – urban hierarchy and transportation network planning – have been addressed separately in the scientific literature. This paper presents an optimization model that simultaneously determines which urban centers and which network links should be promoted to a new level of hierarchy so as to maximize accessibility to all classes of facilities. The possible usefulness of the model for solving real-world problems of integrated urban hierarchy and transportation network planning is illustrated through an application to the Centro Region of Portugal.     

The asymmetric effects of income and fuel price on air transport demand

Forecasts of passenger demand are an important parameter for aviation planners. Air transport demand models typically assume a perfectly reversible impact of the demand drivers. However, there are reasons to believe that the impacts of some of the demand drivers such as fuel price or income on air transport demand may not be perfectly reversible. Two types of imperfect reversibility, namely asymmetry and hysteresis, are possible. Asymmetry refers to the differences in the demand impacts of a rising price or income from that of a falling price or income. Hysteresis refers to the dependence of the impacts of changing price or income on previous history, especially on previous maximum price or income. We use US time series data and decompose each of fuel price and income into three component series to develop an econometric model for air transport demand that is capable of capturing the potential imperfectly reversible relationships and test for the presence or absence of reversibility. We find statistical evidence of asymmetry and hysteresis – for both, prices and income – in air transport demand. Implications for policy and practice are then discussed.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

Integrating land use and transport knowledge in strategy-making

There is broad and growing consensus regarding the central place of integrated Land Use and Transport (LUT) strategy development in establishing more efficient and sustainable urban environments. However, empirical evidence shows that such integration is hard to achieve in daily planning practice, due to many institutional barriers and substantive differences. More specifically, the tools developed to support LUT strategy development have very low implementation rates in daily planning practice. This paper introduces the concept of ‘knowledge generation’ as a potentially useful mechanism for closing the gap between support tools and planning practice. Through two specific Dutch planning cases, we analyze the applicability of this concept in supporting integrated LUT strategy development. The paper focuses on the developed strategies, how these differ from current practice, and how knowledge generation supported their development. We argue that socialization produces shared strategies and that effective socialization needs to be supported by efficient mutual exchange between tacit and explicit knowledge. We conclude by discussing the implications of this argument for the wider practice of LUT planning integration.     

Perceived accessibility,mobility, and connectivity of public transportation systems

Although public transportation is considered effective at reducing the external cost of driving private vehicles, many urbanites do not use public transportation. This study develops measures employing accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity for an entire public transportation service chain as indicators for evaluating public transport services, prioritizes underperforming scenarios from the perspective of urban travelers, and derives various market segmentation strategies that consider different socio-demographic characteristics. A conceptual model is set up herein to assess these latent constructs that describe unobservable and immeasurable characteristics. As a Likert ordinal scale can generate misleading statistical inferences, the Rasch model is used to eliminate bias generated by an ordinal scale when measuring these three latent constructs separately. The Rasch model compares person parameters with item parameters, which are then subjected to logarithmic transformation along a logit scale so as to recognize specific difficulties of service scenarios that cannot be easily eliminated by certain urban travelers. The multidimensional Rasch model also measures the perceptions of urban travelers in terms of the interactions between accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity of this public transportation system. While comparing urban travelers of two large cities in Taiwan, Taipei and Kaohsiung, the empirical results demonstrate that perceived accessibility, mobility, and seamless connectivity differ based on travelers’ age, frequency of weekly sports activities, and environmental awareness. This paper also advances appropriate improvement strategies and provides policy suggestions for urban planners, public transportation service operation agencies, and policy makers when they seek to create user-friendly public transportation services. The proposed approach can be generalized in other cities by considering their local context uniqueness and further evaluating their public transport services.     

Distinguishing the land use effects of road pricing based on the urban form attributes

This paper studies the effects of road pricing on land use under different development scenarios (business as usual scenario and transit oriented development scenario) by a quantitative method, which combines the integrated land use and transport interaction model (TRANUS model) with the scenario-planning techniques. Moreover, in order to further analyze the differences of the land use effects of road pricing on traffic analysis zones (TAZs) with different urban form attributes, a quantitative classification method combining factor analysis and cluster analysis is then used to quantitatively classify TAZs. The results demonstrate that the effects of road pricing on the land use of a specific region depend on the urban form attributes of the region. The higher the densities of employments and population, and better street design (high densities of street and intersections) and public transportation condition, the less the region is negatively affected by road pricing, and vice versa. More importantly, rail transit can alleviate the negative impact of road pricing on commercial development and population concentration of the region. Therefore, before introducing a road pricing policy, it is necessary to develop public transport system, especially rail transit.     

Modelling the impact of alternative transport strategies upon social groups

In this paper, the application of a model representing the impact of interaction between transport costs and the location of housing, population, job employment, shopping and land is described. Two particular uses of the model are considered. Firstly, the effects of changing transport costs upon people of different social status in terms of money and time spent on travelling are examined and compared with results based upon the assumption that the location of population and employment are not responsive to changes in transport cost, as in the conventional transport demand model. Secondly, the effects of six land use‐transport policy sets are examined in terms of the impact upon urban morphology, and the opportunities and travel behaviour of the three social groups. The effects are also compared with the objectives of the strategies.     

The impact of urban characteristics and residents’ income on commuting in China

This study examined the relationship between urban characteristics and residents’ commuting behaviour using sample survey data from 106 cities in China. We found that the average commuting time of high-income groups is significantly longer than that of low-income groups. The increasing urbanization rate leads to an increase in commuting time and more residents using public transport for commuting. The increase in the urban population density is expected to increase the commuting time and the possibility of commuting using non-motorised modes. Different urban characteristics have different effects on the commuting patterns of residents within different income groups. The increased urbanization rate promotes the use of motorised modes for commuting in the high-income group, and shortens the commuting time of the low-income group. We also found that population density and neighbourhood-level factors have a greater impact on the commuting time of the low-income group compared to the high-income group. We suggest China’s urban planners should place emphasis on the commuting requirements of the low-income group by China’s urban planners.     

Environmental impacts of transformative land use and transport developments in the Greater Beijing Region: Insights from a new dynamic spatial equilibrium model

This paper reports the insights into environmental impacts of the ongoing transformative land use and transport developments in Greater Beijing, from a new suite of dynamic land use, spatial equilibrium and strategic transport models that is calibrated for medium to long term land use and transport predictions. The model tests are focused on urban passenger travel demand and associated emissions within the municipality of Beijing, accounting for Beijing’s land use and transport interactions with Tianjin, Hebei and beyond. The findings suggests that background trends of urbanization, economic growth and income rises will continue to be very powerful drivers for urban passenger travel demand across all main modes of transport beyond 2030. In order to achieve the dual policy aims for a moderately affluent and equitable nation and reducing the absolute levels of urban transport emissions by 2030, road charging and careful micro-level coordination between land use, built form and public transport provision may need to be considered together for policy implementation in the near future.     

Climate change and the contribution of transport: Basic facts and the role of aviation

There is a world-wide consensus that climate change policy has to be intensified to achieve reduction goals set for 2020 and 2050. But it is heavily debated which contribution should be expected from the transport sector. It is often argued that in the transportation sector CO₂ marginal mitigation costs are higher such that – together with high growth of transport activities – the reduction targets for this sector should be relaxed. Green transport policy is contrasting this view and underlines that considerable reductions of climate gases in the transport sector are possible without risking economic prosperity. The aviation industry is in the focus of this discussion and first attempts are being made in the European Union to integrate aviation in an emission trading system. It will be shown that the impact of this policy will be very low in the medium term and that additional measures are necessary to create enough incentives for the aviation industry to exploit their reduction potential.     

Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation

Scenarios of low-carbon transport demonstrate that a vast range of different outcomes is possible and contingent on policy, technology and cultural developments. But a closer look indicates that different schools of thought suggest possible pathways diverging in their fine structure. This perspective reveals how three different scientific communities — integrated assessment modelers, transport-sector modelers, and place-based modelers — emphasize distinct solution domains. While integrated assessment models focus on fuel composition, transport-sector models put slightly higher emphasis on efficiency measures; in turn place-based research specifies idiosyncratic behavioral and infrastructural mitigation options that are likely to be beneficial in realizing local co-benefits. These specific local approaches could mitigate urban transport emissions by 20–50%, higher than that revealed in aggregate global models. We discuss differences in approach, possibilities for reconciliation, and the implications of normative assumptions. Targeted three-directional interactions would foster comprehensive understanding of possible low-carbon transportation futures.     

On a pathway to de-carbonization – A comparison of new passenger car CO2 emission standards and taxation measures in the G20 countries

Considering the role of transport for a 1.5 Degree stabilization pathway and the importance of light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency within that, it is important to understand the key elements of a policy package to shape the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet. This paper presents an analysis focusing on three types of policy measures: (1) CO₂ emission standards for new vehicles, (2) vehicle taxation directly and indirectly based on CO₂ emission levels, and (3) fuel taxation. The paper compares the policies in the G20 economies and estimates the financial impact of those policies using the example of a Ford Focus vehicle model. This analysis is a contribution to the assessment of the role of the transport sector in global decarbonisation efforts. The findings of this paper show that only an integrated approach of regulatory and fiscal policy measures can yield substantial efficiency gains in the vehicle fleet and can curb vehicle kilometres travelled by individual motorised transport. Using the illustrative example of one vehicle model, the case study analysis shows that isolated measures, e.g. fuel efficiency regulation without corresponding fuel and vehicle taxes only have minor CO₂ emission reduction effects and that policy measures need to be combined in order to achieve substantial emission reduction gains over time. The analysis shows that the highest level of impact is achieved by a combination regulatory and fiscal policies rather than only one policy even if this policy is more aggressive. When estimating the quantitative effect of fuel efficiency standards, vehicle and fuel tax, the analysis shows that substantial gains with regard to CO₂ emission are only achieved at a financial impact level above 500 Euros over a four year period.     

Comprehensive regional modeling for long-range planning: linking integrated urban models and geographic information systems

This study demonstrates the sequential linking of two types of models to permit the comprehensive evaluation of regional transportation and land use policies. First, we operate an integrated urban model (TRANUS), which represents both land and travel markets with zones and networks. The travel and land use projections from TRANUS are outlined, to demonstrate the general reasonableness of the results, as this is the first application of a market-based urban model in the US. Second, the land use projections for each of the 58 zones in the urban model were fed into a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based land allocation model, which spatially allocates the several land uses within each zone according to simple accessibility rules. While neither model is new, this is one of the first attempts to link these two types of models for regional policy assessments. Other integrated urban models may be linked to other GIS land allocation models in this fashion. Pairing these two types of models allows the user to gain the advantages of the urban models, which represent spatial competition across a region and produce measures of user welfare (traveler and locator surplus), and the advantages of the GIS land allocation models, which produce detailed land use maps that can then be used for environmental impact assessment.     

New highways and land use change: Results from a quasi-experimental research design

Understanding links from new highway construction or capacity expansion to regional growth patterns is crucial for transportation planners and policy makers. In this paper, we incorporate a lagged adjustment regional growth model into a quasi-experimental research design to examine the association between new highway investments and land use change in three California counties. Our study areas provide a mix of urban, small town, and exurban highway projects in order to explore the different effects across project types and geographic contexts. The central finding of this research is that while improvements in surface transportation infrastructure can have large impacts on growth patterns, the nature of the effect depends on the context of the highway investment.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a reply

In the last four years, some 20 urban areas in the UK have commissioned or considered conducting Integrated Transport Studies, which are designed to develop a transport strategy for the next 20–30 years. Such studies represent a new approach to transport policy formulation, since they respond to a vision of the future for the area, treat a wide range of transport and land use policy instruments, emphasize synergy between those instruments, and provide a framework for facilitating action rather than a rigid blueprint for the future. They also differ from past studies in the speed with which they have been conducted, and in the analytical techniques which have made this possible. This paper reviews the background to these studies, the evaluation approach adopted, the policy instruments considered and the analytical methods developed for the studies. It concludes with an assessment of the policy implications stressing in particular the need to reduce trip length, the crucial impact of pricing as an instrument of transport policy, the importance of achieving synergy in strategy development, and the requirement for a common basis for evaluating and financing different transport policy instruments.     

The Impact of Urban Freight Transport: A Definition of Sustainability from an Actor's Perspective

Abstract

This paper presents a definition of sustainable urban freight transport (SUFT), based on the existing theories and concepts, and develops an indicator set that describes SUFT. The definition of SUFT makes a categorisation of actions possible which enables actors to select effective strategies towards SUFT. The indicator set consists of two levels: impact indicators – which describe how the urban freight transport violates the principles of sustainability; and performance indicators – which describe different categories determining the characteristics and performance of the urban transport system. A literature study analyses the characteristics determining the performance of actors in the urban freight transport chain. Knowing the current state and improvement potential of the urban freight transport system are prerequisites for defining successful strategies and implementing effective actions.     

Transport planning for urban areas: A retrospective look and future prospects

This paper examines the evolution of urban transport planning since the 1960′s, identifies the key trends that have influenced such planning, describes the current state of urban transport planning, and speculates on the important characteristics that will influence urban transport planning over the next several decades. Fifteen planning conferences since 1957 are reviewed to show the changing perspectives on planning from the professional community. Ten areas are identified that will provide special challenge to future transport planners—demographic changes, the importance of economic production and market forces for transport system performance, multimodal perspectives for transport planning, adopting an operations focus, an important role for technology, developing a sense of community, laying the groundwork for pricing, integrating transport decision making with growth management, transport planning within a sustainability framework, and providing greater accountability of the decision making and planning processes.     

The simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model (SE3M) of land use and transportation

Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. Historically, the financial, time, and staff requirements to develop one of these models has put them beyond the reach of most small- to medium-sized urban areas. The purpose of this paper is to present the large zone economic submodel of SE³M, an integrated model – founded upon economic base theory and bid-rent theory – that is reasonably accurate, yet simpler in form, function, and implementation than competing models. The US territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. The submodel presented here was validated against a horizon year with known data for zonal level population and employment totals together with control totals for the island as a whole. The model was able – across two base years and one validation, horizon year – to locate all jobs and a high percentage of the population on each zone on the island.