The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

The benefits to the public of vehicle legislation — Attempts to measure the unmeasurable

Although inevitably there are grey areas, a distinction may be drawn between environmental disbenefits arising from vehicles which cause annoyance, such as noise, or loss of peace and quiet, vibration, visual intrusion, severance, and those which endanger life and limb. Legislation implemented to reduce either category will inevitably generate costs.It is suggested that in evaluating legislation relating to environmental nuisance, attempts should be made carefully to measure the benefits, while for legislation when life and limb is involved a cost-effectiveness approach should be adopted. Methods currently available to measure environmental nuisance arising from vehicles, for example opinion surveys, observing the effect of changes in some independent indicator, and simulation exercises are critically examined. Using evidence from the Urban Motorway Committee Reports, Noise Advisory Council, Transport and Road Research Laboratory surveys on the effect of traffic in selected High Streets, and the Realistic Environment Assessment Laboratory, Social and Community Planning Research ping-pong technique, studies of house price differentials, and estimates of willingness-to-pay for exclusion facilities, an attempt is made to highlight the dilemma that while benefits of environmental nuisance legislation should be carefully weighed against the anti-pollution costs, techniques currently available for measuring such benefits are very underdeveloped.Paradoxically there is a far more clear-cut procedure for valuing benefits of policies affecting life and limb. Official accident evaluation policy in the U.K. is described, and legislation affecting life and limb is examined.Finally, difficulties of effectively enforcing legislation of both environmental nuisance and life and limb categories are illustrated.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

Modeling intrametropolitan industrial location realistically

This paper compares intrametropolitan industrial location models to the process of intrametropolitan industrial location as described in the real estate and urban economic literature. It identifies seven areas where industrial location models are at odds with reality, and suggests ways to make them realistic. Specifically, it makes a case for microanalytic/stochastic/recursive/dynamic/economic industrial location models. It goes on to describe an operational model that is realistic in most respects.     

Land rents and transport improvements: Some urban parables

Define a transportation improvement's impact zone as the area within which resident households and business firms regularly utilize the improvement. Three simple parables suggest that the increases in impact-zone land rents that usually accompany improvements do not accurately reflect its benefits. Seemingly modest variations in the demand and supply relationships that characterize impact-zone residents can have major effects on the relationship between benefits received and the land-rent changes that are measured. Generally speaking, increases in impact-zone land rents substantially understate benefits unless these benefits are small either absolutely (because the improvement is modest) or relatively (because the impact zone is part of a homogeneous area of much larger size).     

An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis

This paper is a review and assessment of the contributions made by activity-based approaches to the understanding and forecasting of travel behavior. In their brief history of approximately a decade, activity-based analyses have received extensive interest. This work has led to an accumulation of empirical evidence and new insights and has made substantial contributions toward the better understanding of travel behavior. However, practical applications of the approach in transportation planning and policy development have been scarce. Based on an analysis of the inherent characteristics of the activity-based approach, a review of recent (after the 1981 Oxford conference) developments, and a synthesis of the findings from past empirical studies, this study attempts to evaluate the contribution made by activity-based analyses and determine the reasons for the limited practical application. Recommendations are made for the future development of activity-based analysis as a science of travel behavior and as a tool in the practice of transportation planning and policy development.     

Trucking industry demand for urban shared use freight terminals

The issue of shared use urban freight facilities first received attention during the 1970s when it was observed that, while inter-urban freight movements were becoming increasingly efficient, there were significant diseconomies in the movement of freight via truck within urban areas. Early research suggested that shared urban freight facilities should be constructed so that trucking companies could consolidate smaller shipments into larger ones. In the past few years, the concept of Urban Ports has gained increasing attention, not just for carriers who need to load and unload freight, but to provide a place near the urban center for truckers to wait out peak traffic periods. In this paper, using recently developed survey data, we examine trucking company interest in such facilities by examining the results of an ordered probit demand model.     

Second generation U.S. rail transit systems: Prospects and perils

So far in the decade of the 1970's, commitments have been made to construct a second generation of new rail systems in four urban areas — Atlanta, Baltimore, Miami and Buffalo. In this paper the authors speculate on the prospects and perils that lie ahead for these systems in the context of national and local expectations for rail transit and the experience of the first generation rail transit systems of San Francisco (BART) and Washington.     

Suburban congestion: Recommendations for transportation and land use responses

Transportation congestion is reaching intolerable levels in many urban and suburban areas in the US. Reliance upon traditional responses, such as transit and new highway capacity, is not working — especially in suburban areas. Although methods for dealing with suburban congestion are often different, there are a number of common features that must be considered in developing short term as well as more permanent and long lasting solutions. In proposing short term solutions, a Menu of Actions is described. It includes transportation actions (the traditional transit and transportation management options) where there are opportunities for getting more out of the existing systems; land use/growth management actions which will result in more rational land use-transportation interactions; financial incentives, to encourage or discourage appropriate actions; more comprehensive and systematic land use and transportation planning; and the organizational and institutional actions required to implement rational solutions.While the Manu of Actions provides a broad array of possible actions to provide relief in the short run, over time the growth in traffic is likely to outpace their effectiveness. Consequently, longer term and often more difficult solutions must be considered and implemented as appropriate. They could include changes in land use development and land use management policies; changes in lifestyle and business practices; improvements through technological innovation; changes in the traditional ways of providing transportation services; and greatly expanded research and development.     

Teleworking in the Netherlands: an evaluation of changes in travel behaviour

This article describes the first experiment on teleworking in the Netherlands, and presents the results of an analysis of the impact of teleworking on the travel behaviour of the participants in the experiment and their household members. It was concluded that teleworking has resulted in a significant decrease in the total number of trips by teleworkers (–17%). Peak-hour traffic by car has been reduced even more (–26%). An unexpected result was that the household members of the teleworkers also appeared to travel less than before the experiment.     

Allocation of funds to public transport investment and operating support

This paper reviews the present levels of operating support to, and public investment in, public transport systems in Western Europe. All internal bus, tram and rail services are included, and estimates made for total support in Britain, Sweden, West Germany, the Netherlands and France. To make comparison meaningful, these are shown in relation to GDP and traffic carried. Support levels in Britain are below average, but by no means the lowest as sometimes assumed. Reasons for providing support are considered, including existence of financial burdens arising historically, assistance to particular groups of users, problems in price discrimination and inability of other modes' charges to reflect costs. The extent to which support payments may merely subsidise inefficiency is outlined. A distinction is drawn between productive efficiency, i.e. the resources used to provide a specified level of service and fare, and allocative efficiency, i.e. the extent to which resources are allocated so as to maximise traffic, etc. The extent for reducing support yet retaining the present general level of service and fare is considered.Means of raising finance for support are outlined, including relative roles of central and local government. The scope of local taxes being raised to meet local objectives is considered, notably in the French versement transport: In conclusion, it is suggested that trunk inter-city services should cover all costs from fares, by a discriminatory pricing policy, but central government provide a basic support level for rural areas. In urban areas, practical limits exist to price discrimination, and the best policy may be collective purchase of facilities through a local tax.     

Approaches to the future in U.S. urban transportation planning

In appreciation of the fact that longer-run considerations are particularly important in the development of urban transportation, during the past three decades American transportation planning has been employing increasingly sophisticated approaches to the future. This article discusses four phases in this evolution, with a given focus dominant in each period.During the first period, following on the initial provision of federal government funds for the construction of highways in and around cities, major reliance was based on simple projections of travel demand in metropolitan regions, based mainly on current patterns.This was followed by an approach which focused on an analysis of impacts on transportation systems of projected land uses, based on forecasts of population and economic growth for a target year, on the assumption that facilities were to be provided to move all vehicles that wanted to move from here to there at least possible cost.The third period was characterized by an increasing consciousness of the value of articulating national and local goals in making transportation decisions, going beyond narrow economic and mobility objectives, and including the notion of trade-offs among goals.The most recent period discussed is one characterized by rising interest in futures studies, using methods such as Delphi and cross-impact analysis and approaches such as alternative futures, as well as a search for achieving flexibility in transportation development and for means of limiting resource commitment in the face of the uncertainties of the future (keeping options open).It is pointed out that we still have a long way to go in learning how to evolve feasible images of the future, with associated explicit urban life-style goals, that come to grips with societal variety and conflicting interests.     

Characterization and evolution of spatial density patterns in urban areas

This paper examines the spatial patterns of population density, household automobile ownership and other socio-demographic variables that affect urban travel, as a function of distance from the central city core. Spatial density functions provide a useful characterization of urban structure, and of its evolution when taken at different time intervals. Analysis of the data from four case cities (Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix) for 1960, 1970 and 1980 reveals continuing overall dispersion away from the traditional central core, accompanied by the densification of formerly low-density suburbs. This presents implications for high congestion levels in the densifying suburban communities, comparable to those typically associated with the CBD. In addition, the analysis has captured the continuing growth of average household automobile ownership and revealed a distinct spatial pattern that seems to be robust across the case areas considered, as well as within radial corridors in the one case that was so analyzed (Austin).List of symbols Y gross population density in census tractt - X _t distance in miles from the center of tract to the CBD - parameter representing the central business district density - y density gradient parameter - X₀, X₁, X2, and X3 locations of the knots in a three segment division of the x-axis - D_i dummy variable defined for thei-th segment - ₁ normally distributed disturbance term,a _i,b _i,c _i,d _i,i = 1, 2, 3 — parameters to be estimated - A _t area of census tractt     

Modelling car availability,modal split and trip distribution by Monte-Carlo simulation: A short way to integrated models

The model used a Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate modal split and trip distribution as an interconnected decision process at the individual level. Using census data, the individuals of a planning region are classified into situation groups, which represent significantly different decision situations with respect to socio-demographic position and territorial location. According to the theoretical framework, which emphasises mobility constraints instead of preferences, household structure and sex (time budget and car availability constraints) and work place characteristics (location constraints) are the key variables. For each situation group, decision profiles are empirically determined; these describe car availability, travel time constraints and work place distribution. Modal split and trip distribution are simulated as an interconnected individual decision process, which is stochastically determined by the location of the individual and the decision profile of his situation group.The algorithm is very sensitive and flexible and extremely well suited to electronic processing. An extended and modified version is currently being used in the preparation of regional transporation plans for several German city regions.     

Development of multimodal performance measures for transit systems in New York State

The New York State Department of Transportation was required to certify as to the economy and efficiency of transit operators participating in the State's public transportation operating assistance program. This paper describes the efforts undertaken to meet this mandate.Discussed are past efforts to link performance measures to funding programs; reasons for modifying measures which had been used in previous efforts; and some of the problems and issues raised by the use of such criteria. The paper identifies 15 performance measures being used by New York State in its evaluations, the actual ranges encountered in the transit operations being funded through the state program, and tentative acceptable and desirable levels of those measures which the Transportation Department is using in its evaluation. The role these measures play in the state's operating assistance policy decision process is also described.     

A tale of two cities

Land use and transportation mutually affect each other. Unfortunately, most transportation decision making procedures assume that public agencies cannot shape future land use patterns, and that past land use practices unswervingly determine future conditions. In A Tale of Two Cities, the author surveys the correlations between land use policies and travel behavior in two Oregon cities (Portland and Hillsboro).Building on successes the City of Portland has achieved in reducing reliance on the automobile, the author outlines a recent project by 1000 Friends of Oregon, titled Making the Land Use, Transportation, Air Quality Connection (LUTRAQ). According to the author, the purpose of LUTRAQ is to replicate Portland's approach in a more suburban context. Specifically, LUTRAQ is attempting to develop a realistic land use/transportation/demand management alternative to a proposed new bypass freeway and to accurately measure that alternative for its effects on travel demand, land use, air quality, climate change, and other indices. Although LUTRAQ is a project in progress, the author provides preliminary information that suggests the alternative successfully reduces demand for single occupancy automobile travel.     

Behavioral analysis and transportation planning: Inputs to transit planning

The purpose of this paper is to discuss various types of behavioral data of potential relevance to transit planning. In particular a distinction is drawn between behavorial information regarding feelings, attitudes, opinions, and the like and more sophisticated types of data dealing with individuals' intentions to respond in certain ways given certain configurations of stimuli (transportation variables). The former is shown to be an important input to incremental planning, i.e., where information as to system performance is desired. The latter is shown to be critical to decisions regarding manipulations of transit system parameters, i.e., where knowledge of the outcome of manipulating system parameters is desired.A methodological example as to how the first type of data — informational level data — can be collected and utilized in system planning is presented. Specifically, data collected along the lines of traditional attitude surveys is collected in an attempt to monitor changes in public satisfaction with the Iowa City, Iowa, bus system before and after major system innovations. Implications of the collection and analytical procedures are discussed.This report was produced as part of a program of research and training in urban transportation sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration of the Department of Transportation.     

Joint development at transit stations in the United States

Joint development, as the term is generally used in connection with transit systems in the United States, is real estate development that is closely linked to public transportation services and station facilities, and takes advantage of the market and locational advantages provided by them. Research conducted by LEK Associates for the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) suggests that, in addition to helping shape urban growth and land development, joint development is also a surprisingly effective means of increasing transit system ridership and farebox revenues, as well as a source of increasingly significant revenues from the sale or lease of air rights.The completion of nine joint development projects in as many different cities, started under the former Urban Initiatives Program, for example, net additional annual ridership might reach 12000000 one-way trips. Net additional annual farebox revenues might reach over $9000000. This added revenue would be sufficient to repay the $62 million combined UMTA/transit operator investment in the nine projects, exclusive of the costs of the basic transit system improvements around which the projects are planned, in less than six years.Among transit authority-administered joint development programs examined in a separate study, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) has had the most success in generating significant value capture income. For example, the cumulative revenue realized by WMATA from just six joint development projects in the Washington, DC region, through September 1983 exceeded $ 6.9 million. Projections through fiscal year 1986 indicate cumulative revenues approximating $ 28 million will be received from developer leases.     

The Market for Transportation-Land Use Integration: Do Developers Want Smarter Growth than Regulations Allow?

Transportation and land use research of the past decade has focused in large part on the question of whether manipulating land uses in the direction of smart growth alternatives can reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or otherwise improve travel behavior. Yet the notion of manipulating land uses implies that the alternative is somehow self-organized or market-based. This view appears to underestimate the extent to which current planning interventions in the United States – largely focused on lowering development densities, mandating ample road and parking designs, and separating land uses – impose an auto-oriented template on most new development. Rather than a market failure, the paucity of smart growth alternatives may be a planning failure – the result of municipal regulatory exclusion. This problem definition would shift the burden of proof for policy reform, as uncertainty in travel-behavior benefits would hardly justify the continuation of exclusionary regulations. If municipal regulations in fact constrain alternatives to low-density, auto-oriented development, one would expect developers to perceive unsatisfied market interest in such development. This article studies, through a national survey (676 respondents), US developers' perceptions of the market for pedestrian-and transit-oriented development forms. Overall, respondents perceive considerable market interest in alternative development forms, but believe that there is inadequate supply of such alternatives relative to market demand. Developer-respondents attribute this gap between supply and demand principally to local government regulation. When asked how the relaxation of these regulations would affect their product, majorities of developers indicated that such liberalization would lead them to develop in a denser and more mixed-use fashion, particularly in close-in suburban locales. Results are interpreted in favor land-policy reform based on the expansion of choice in transportation and land use. This view contrasts with a more prevalent approach which conditions policy interventions on scientific evidence of travel-behavior modification.