Integrated analysis of GHGs and public health damage mitigation for developing urban road transportation strategies

This study attempts to present an urban road transportation strategy focusing on the mitigation of both GHGs emission and public health damage, taking Xiamen City as a case study. We developed a Public Health and GHGs Emission model to estimate the impacts of direct energy-consumption-related GHGs emissions and public health damage in Xiamen’s road transportation strategies from 2008 to 2025, considering the environmental benefits and economic costs. Two scenarios were designed to describe future transportation strategies for Xiamen City, and mitigation potentials for both GHGs emission and public health costs were estimated from 2008 to 2025 under a series of options. The results show that enacting controls on private vehicles would be most effective to GHGs mitigation, while enacting controls on government and rental vehicles would contribute the most to NO₂ and PM2.5 reductions. Compared with the Business as Usual scenario, the Integrated scenario would achieve about a 68% energy consumption reduction and save 0.23 billion yuan (95% CI: 0.16, 0.32) in health costs in 2025. It is clear that integrated and advisable strategies need to mitigate the adverse impacts of urban road vehicles on GHGs emissions and public health and economic costs, particularly in regions of rapid urbanization.     

Wheat interchanges in Europe: Transport optimization reduces emissions

Numerous Life Cycle Analysis of bread pointed out that wheat production and transportation have important impacts on the environment. But wheat is grown all around the world and it is not always consumed where it is produced. In this paper an analysis of the wheat movements around Europe is done, taking special attention on the Spanish situation. An optimization of wheat exchanges is done eliminating the import–export overlapping. This optimization entails a reduction of the number of trips by 34% and the CO₂ emissions reduction due to transportation is calculated to be 121.175 tones. Consequently less trips, fewer trucks, less traffic and lower emissions that brings economic, social and environmental benefits.     

VISSIM/MOVES integration to investigate the effect of major key parameters on CO2 emissions

This paper looks at CO₂ emissions on limited access highways in a microscopic and stochastic environment using an optimal design approach. Estimating vehicle emissions based on second-by-second vehicle operation allows the integration of a microscopic traffic simulation model with the latest US Environmental Protection Agency’s mobile source emissions model to improve accuracy. A factorial experiment on a test bed prototype of the I-4 urban limited access highway corridor located in Orlando, Florida was conducted to identify the optimal settings for CO₂ emissions reduction and to develop a microscopic transportation emission prediction model. An exponentially decaying function towards a limiting value expressed in the freeway capacity is found to correlate with CO₂ emission rates. Moreover, speeds between 55 and 60 mph show emission rate reduction effect while maintaining up to 90% of the freeway’s capacity. The results show that speed has a significant impact on CO₂ emissions when detailed and microscopic analysis of vehicle operations of acceleration and deceleration are considered.     

Regional climate impact of aerosols emitted by transportation modes and potential effects of policies on demand and emissions

The transportation system is one of the main sectors with significant climate impact. In the U.S. it is the second main emitter of carbon dioxide. Its impact in terms of emission of carbon dioxide is well recognized. But a number of aerosol species have a non-negligible impact. The radiative forcing due to these species needs to be quantified. A radiative transfer code is used. Remote sensing data is retrieved to characterize different regions. The radiative forcing efficiency for black carbon are 396 ± 200 W/m²/AOD for the ground mode and 531 ± 190 W/m²/AOD for the air transportation, under clear sky conditions. The radiative forcing due to contrail is 0.14 ± 0.06 W/m² per percent coverage. Based on the forcing from the different species emitted by each mode of transportation, policies may be envisioned. These policies may affect demand and emissions of different modes of transportation. Demand and fleet models are used to quantify these interdependencies. Depending on the fuel price of each mode, mode shifts and overall demand reduction occur, and more fuel efficient vehicles are introduced in the fleet at a faster rate. With the introduction of more fuel efficient vehicles, the effect of fuel price on demand is attenuated. An increase in fuel price of 50 cents per gallon, scaled based on the radiative forcing of each mode, results in up to 5% reduction in emissions and 6% reduction in radiative forcing. With technologies, significant reduction in climate impact may be achieved.     

Biofuels in aviation: Fuel demand and CO2 emissions evolution in Europe toward 2030

This article presents the results of a scenario-based study carried out at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre aimed at analyzing the future growth of aviation, the resulting fuel demand and the deployment of biofuels in the aviation sector in Europe. Three scenarios have been produced based on different input assumptions and leading to different underlying patterns of growth and resulting volumes of traffic. Data for aviation growth and hence fuel demand have been projected on a year by year basis up to 2030, using 2010 as the baseline. Data sources are Eurostat statistics and actual flight information from EUROCONTROL. Relevant variables such as the number of flights, the type of aircrafts, passengers or cargo tonnes and production indicators (RPKs) are used together with fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions data. The target of the European Advanced Biofuels Flightpath to ensure the commercialization and consumption of 2 million tons of sustainably produced paraffinic biofuels in the aviation sector by 2020, has also been taken into account. Results regarding CO₂ emission projections to 2030, reveal a steady annual increase in the order of 3%, 1% and 4% on average, for the three different scenarios, providing also a good correlation compared to the annual traffic growth rates that are indicated in the three corresponding scenarios. In absolute values, these ratios correspond to the central, the pessimistic and the optimistic scenarios respectively, corresponding to 360 million tonnes CO₂ emissions in 2030, ranging from 271 to 401 million tonnes for the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, respectively. This article also reports on the supply potential of aviation biofuels (clustered in HEFA/HVOs and biojet) based on the production capacity of facilities around the world and provides an insight on the current and future trends in aviation based on the European and national policies, innovations and state-of-the art technologies that will influence the future of sustainable fuels in aviation.     

Development of a corrected average speed model for calculating carbon dioxide emissions per link unit on urban roads

The purpose of our study is to develop a “corrected average emission model,” i.e., an improved average speed model that accurately calculates CO₂ emissions on the road. When emissions from the central roads of a city are calculated, the existing average speed model only reflects the driving behavior of a vehicle that accelerates and decelerates due to signals and traffic. Therefore, we verified the accuracy of the average speed model, analyzed the causes of errors based on the instantaneous model utilizing second-by-second data from driving in a city center, and then developed a corrected model that can improve the accuracy. We collected GPS data from probe vehicles, and calculated and analyzed the average emissions and instantaneous emissions per link unit. Our results showed that the average speed model underestimated CO₂ emissions with an increase in acceleration and idle time for a speed range of 20 km/h and below, which is the speed range for traffic congestion. Based on these results, we analyzed the relationship between average emissions and instantaneous emissions according to the average speed per link unit, and we developed a model that performed better with an improved accuracy of calculated CO₂ emissions for 20 km/h and below.     

Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

An optimization model of energy and transportation systems: Assessing the high-speed rail impacts in the United States

This paper presents a long-term investment planning model that co-optimizes infrastructure investments and operations across transportation and electric infrastructure systems for meeting the energy and transportation needs in the United States. The developed passenger transportation model is integrated within the modeling framework of a National Long-term Energy and Transportation Planning (NETPLAN) software, and the model is applied to investigate the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) investments on interstate passenger transportation portfolio, fuel and electricity consumption, and 40-year cost and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The results show that there are feasible scenarios under which significant HSR penetration can be achieved, leading to reasonable decrease in national long-term CO₂ emissions and costs. At higher HSR penetration of approximately 30% relative to no HSR in the portfolio promises a 40-year cost savings of up to $0.63 T, gasoline and jet fuel consumption reduction of up to 34% for interstate passenger trips, CO₂ emissions reduction by about 0.8 billion short tons, and increased resilience against petroleum price shocks. Additionally, sensitivity studies with respect to light-duty vehicle mode share reveal that in order to realize such long-term cost and emission benefits, a change in the passenger mode choice is essential to ensure higher ridership for HSR.     

Evaluating the social cost of cruise ships air emissions in major ports of Greece

Detailed NO_x, SO₂ and PM_2.5 emissions have been estimated for cruise ships in the five busiest Greek ports (i.e. Piraeus, Santorini, Mykonos, Corfu and Katakolo) for year 2013. The emissions were analyzed in terms of gas species, seasonality and activity. The total in-port inventory of cruise shipping accounted to 2742.7 tons: with NO_x being dominant (1887.5 tons), followed by SO₂ and PM_2.5 (760.9 and 94.3 tons respectively). Emissions during hotelling corresponded to 88.5% of total and have significantly outweighed those produced during ships’ maneuvering activities (11.5% of total). Seasonality was found to play a major role, as summer emissions and associated impacts were significantly augmented. The anticipated health impacts of ship emissions can reach to €24.3 million or to €5.3 per passenger proving the necessity of control of the emissions produced by cruise ships in port cities or policy and measures towards a more efficient cruise industry.     

Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to offset the CO₂ emissions resulting from rapid air traffic growth. Global aviation CO₂ emissions projections are examined for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic flows are forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO₂ emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO₂-eq. recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Nor is any compatible with the Panel’s aim of limiting global warming to 3.2 °C.     

Characteristics of gaseous and particulate pollutants exhaust from logistics transportation vehicle on real-world conditions

On-road vehicle tests of three heavy duty diesel trucks were conducted by a portable emission measurement system (PEMS) in Chengdu, China. SEMTECH-ECOSTAR provided by Sensors Inc. was employed to detect gaseous emissions and MI2, an emissions measuring instrument powered by the Pegasor Particulate Sensor (PPS) was used to detect particulate emissions during the tests. The impacts of speed, acceleration and engine load on emissions were analyzed. The average nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission factors of the heavy duty diesel truck (HDDT), medium-duty diesel truck (MDDT), light duty diesel truck (LDDT) were 7.29, 5.29 and 5.53 g/km. The particulate emission factors were 0.60, 0.30 and 0.14 g/km respectively, higher than the similar reported in the previous studies. Both gaseous and particulate emission exhibit significant correlations with the change in vehicle speed, acceleration and power demand. The highest emission was generally in high VSPs and higher loads. High engine load caused by aggressive driving was the main factor of high emissions for the vehicles on real-world conditions.     

Environmental benefits from improving transportation efficiency in wood procurement systems

Forest operations use fossil fuels, which should be considered when environmental impact in the wood procurement is of concern. Road freight transportation is the most common operation in timber transportation, and thus is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the impact of the new larger and heavier vehicles (LHV) on environmental emissions using the synchronized calculation method. The maximum (theoretical) and operational effects of 76 t LHV with calculations made for three weight limits (60, 64 and 68 t) are compared in Finland. Based on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) data, environmental energy efficiency (measured in relation to the trip) increased 9.2%. The reduction in fuel consumption was 12.5%, though this is likely to under-estimate the long-term effects that will be achieved when forest operations are fully adjusted to the maximum weight limit. A comparison with the European countries and a preliminary sensitivity analysis of the system demonstrate that the technological development to improve the transporting efficiency is essential for realizing 76 t LHV utilization in Finland.     

Electric vehicle parking in European and American context: Economic,energy and environmental analysis

The transportation sector faces increasing challenges related to energy consumption and local and global emissions profiles. Thus, alternative vehicle technologies and energy pathways are being considered in order to overturn this trend and electric mobility is considered one adequate possibility towards a more sustainable transportation sector.In this sense, this research work consisted on the development of a methodology to assess the economic feasibility of deploying EV charging stations (Park-EV) by quantifying the tradeoff between economic and energy/environmental impacts for EV parking spaces deployment. This methodology was applied to 4 different cities (Lisbon, Madrid, Minneapolis and Manhattan), by evaluating the influence of parking premium, infrastructure cost and occupancy rates on the investment Net Present Value (NPV). The main findings are that the maximization of the premium and the minimization of the equipment cost lead to higher NPV results. The NPV break-even for the cities considered is more “easily” reached for higher parking prices, namely in the case of Manhattan with the higher parking price profile. In terms of evaluating occupancy rates of the EV parking spaces, shifting from a low usage (LU) to a high usage (HU) scenario represented a reduction in the premium to obtain a NPV = 0 of approximately 14% for a 2500 € equipment cost, and, in the case of a zero equipment cost (e.g. financed by the city), a NPV = 0 was obtained with approximately a 2% reduction in the parking premium. Moreover, due to the use of electric mobility instead of the average conventional technologies, Well-to-Wheel (WTW) gains for Lisbon, Madrid, Minneapolis and Manhattan were estimated in 58%, 53%, 52% and 75% for energy consumption and 66%, 75%, 62% and 86% for CO₂ emissions, respectively.This research confirms that the success of deploying an EV charging stations infrastructure will be highly dependent on the price the user will have to pay, on the cost of the infrastructure deployed and on the adhesion of the EV users to this kind of infrastructure. These variables are not independent and, consequently, the coordination of public policies and private interest must be promoted in order to reach an optimal solution that does not result in prohibitive costs for the users.     

Sensitive analysis of emission rates in MOVES for developing site-specific emission database

With the rapid social and economic development, vehicle emissions have been identified as a major source of urban air pollutions in China. Therefore, the study on vehicle emission estimations is necessary. In light of the limitation of emission data for establishing a local comprehensive emission database, this paper analyzes the characteristics of emission rates in MOVES released by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to investigate the feasibility and to design a method for developing site-specific emission database. Sensitive analysis for model year, age group and speed interval is performed, and the regularity is concluded. The result shows that emission rates are almost constant with model year, but increase with age groups because of emission deterioration. With respect to speed intervals, the emission rates in 25–50 mph are higher than both those <25 mph and >50 mph in the same VSP (vehicle specific power) bins. In addition, an analysis of local emission data in Beijing is conducted to build the relationship between vehicle activities and emission rates. After that, a comparison of emission rates by VSP bins in MOVES and in local database is conducted in this study. The result shows that the absolute values are different because of regulatory emission standards, fuel quality, and other factors. However, the relative changes described by normalizing emission rates have a good consistency. Hence, the regularities of emission rates by VSP bins in MOVES can be used to develop local emission database in Beijing.     

Green approaches at sea – The benefits of adjusting speed instead of anchoring

In this paper, the concept ‘green approaches’ already used in aviation is applied to cargo transportation at sea. Instead of anchoring outside a port waiting for berth, ships can adjust their speed to arrive just in time for berthing. With improved incentives for reducing speed and shared information about berthing times, green approaches instead of anchoring can be a way to reduce fuel consumption and emissions without increasing the transit times of goods. The present study estimates the benefits to society as a whole for the EU ports in the Baltic Sea with Automatic Identification System data applying a new method using data collected in real time. Data consists of all anchored ships awaiting berth on 40 different occasions in 2015 and are subsequently extrapolated to a year. Fuel consumption by the individual ships, emissions and values are calculated from the detailed data with established models and estimates of unit values. The potential benefits are estimated at 27 million euros per year in the scenario where the near 15,000 anchorings by ships annually awaiting berth may instead start a green approach 12 h prior to arrival and may reduce speed by 25%, using the middle unit values for fuel and emissions. The methodology used in the paper can be applied to estimate the benefits of green approaches in other areas with anchored vessels.     

Isocyanic acid and ammonia in vehicle emissions

Vehicles are considered to be an important source of ammonia (NH₃) and isocyanic acid (HNCO). HNCO and NH₃ have been shown to be toxic compounds. Moreover, NH₃ is also a precursor in the formation of atmospheric secondary aerosols. For that reason, real-time vehicular emissions from a series of Euro 5 and Euro 6 light-duty vehicles, including spark ignition (gasoline and flex-fuel), compression ignition (diesel) and a plug-in electric hybrid, were investigated at 23 and −7 °C over the new World harmonized Light-duty vehicle Test Cycle (WLTC) in the Vehicle Emission Laboratory at the European Commission Joint Research Centre Ispra, Italy. The median HNCO emissions obtained for the studied fleet over the WLTC were 1.4 mg km⁻¹ at 23 °C and 6 mg km⁻¹ at −7 °C. The fleet median NH₃ emission factors were 10 mg km⁻¹ and 21 mg km⁻¹ at 23 and −7 °C, respectively. The obtained results show that even though three-way catalyst (TWC), selective catalytic reduction (SCR), and NOx storage catalyst (NSC) are effective systems to reduce NOx vehicular emissions, they also lead to considerable emissions of the byproducts NH₃ and/or HNCO. It is also shown that diesel light-duty vehicles equipped with SCR can present NH₃ emission factors as high as gasoline light-duty vehicles at both, 23 and −7 °C over the WLTC. Therefore, with the introduction in the market of this DeNOx technology, vehicular NH₃ emissions will increase further.     

Quantifying drivers’ acceptance of renewable fuel standard: Results from a choice experiment in South Korea

The production and use of renewable fuels in the transport sector are rapidly increasing. Renewable fuel standard (RFS) is a strong regulatory component and quantitative policy expected to have a significant market impact. In Korea, RFS implementation was agreed upon in July 2013 and will be enforced beginning in July 2015. Drivers’ acceptance is the most important consideration for RFS introduction and sustainable implementation. This study analyzed Korean customer preferences for RFS and quantified their acceptance level according to policy design. A choice experiment was analyzed with a mixed logit model to reflect the heterogeneity of respondents’ preferences. Respondents were relatively sensitive to the price increase, while other attributes had little effect on acceptance of RFS. Differences between the influences of attributes on drivers’ acceptance should be considered when designing RFS implementation. Furthermore, it is recommended that the price of transportation fuels should be limited to an increase between KRW 10 and 20/liter (USD 8.879 × 10⁻³ and 1.776 × 10⁻²/liter) to ensure high acceptance level, secure a budget for infrastructure, and achieve substantial environmental improvement.     

Assessing air quality and health benefits of the Clean Truck Program in the Alameda corridor,CA

In this paper, vehicle microscopic simulation and emission models were combined with an air pollutant dispersion model and a health assessment tool to quantify some social costs resulting from urban freight transportation in the Alameda corridor that links the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to downtown Los Angeles. Traffic on two busy freeways, the I-710 and the I-110, and some heavily trafficked arterial roads was analyzed to estimate the health impacts caused by drayage truck emissions of particulate matter (PM) for four different years: 2005, which serves as a baseline for various pollution inventories, as well as 2008, 2010 and 2012. These years correspond to deadlines for the Clean Truck Program (CTP), which was put in place to improve air quality in the Alameda corridor. Results show that the health costs from particulate matter (PM) emitted by drayage trucks exceeded 440 million dollars in 2005. However, these costs decreased by 36%, 90%, and 96% after accounting for the requirements of the 2008, 2010, and 2012 CTP deadlines. These results quantify the magnitude of the social costs generated by drayage trucks in the Alameda corridor, suggest that these costs justified replacing drayage trucks operating there, and indicate that the Clean Truck Program likely exceeded its target.     

An integrated modeling approach for facilitating emission estimations of alternative fueled vehicles

This paper develops an integrated model for reliable estimation of daily vehicle fuel savings and emissions using an integrated traffic emission modeling approach created by incorporating the US Environmental Protection Agency’s vehicle emission model, MOVES, and the PARAMICS microscopic traffic simulation package. A case study is conducted to validate the model using a well-calibrated road network in Greenville, South Carolina. For each transportation fuel considered, both emission and fuel consumption impacts are evaluated based on market shares.     

On the electrification of road transportation – A review of the environmental,economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers

Electrification is widely considered as a viable strategy for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impacts of road transportation. In pursuit of this strategy, most attention has been paid to electric cars. However, substantial, yet untapped, potentials could be realized in urban areas through the large-scale introduction of electric two-wheelers. Here, we review the environmental, economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers, demonstrating that these are generally more energy efficient and less polluting than conventionally-powered motor vehicles. Electric two-wheelers tend to decrease exposure to pollution as their environmental impacts largely result from vehicle production and electricity generation outside of urban areas. Our analysis suggests that the price of e-bikes has been decreasing at a learning rate of 8%. Despite price differentials of 5000 ± 1800 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW h⁻¹ in Europe, e-bikes are penetrating the market because they appear to offer an apparent additional use value relative to bicycles. Mid-size and large electric two-wheelers do not offer such an additional use value compared to their conventional counterparts and constitute niche products at price differentials of 700 ± 360 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹ and 160 ± 90 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹, respectively. The large-scale adoption of electric two-wheelers can reduce traffic noise and road congestion but may necessitate adaptations of urban infrastructure and safety regulations. A case-specific assessment as part of an integrated urban mobility planning that accounts, e.g., for the local electricity mix, infrastructure characteristics, and mode-shift behavior, should be conducted before drawing conclusions about the sustainability impacts of electric two-wheelers.