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为探究造成道路交通事故的关键成因,对道路交通事故的主要影响因素进行了多因致果集中分析,构建了涵盖机动车驾驶入、非机动车驾驶人、行人及乘车人、道路环境、意外的道路交通事故成因指标体系,运用因子分析法对指标体系进行降维处理,得到了造成道路交通事故的关键因子,进而提出了道路交通事故关键因子分析步骤.以我国2006~2012年全国道路交通事故统计为例,对原有38个相关联评价指标进行综合分析,结果表明:道路交通事故的关键成因是机动车非法行驶与停靠致因因子(贡献率57.34%)、交叉口与路段非法穿越道路致因因子(贡献率23.12%)和道路设施不健全与交通工具故障致因因子(贡献率12.58%)三方面. 相似文献
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为掌握西部事故高发地区的交通事故特征,在2008—2012年国道314、219,叶城县、塔县地区道路交通事故统计资料基础上,运用灰色原理建立一阶单变量GM(1,1)预测模型,对上述地区道路交通事故的事故数、死亡人数进行短期预测。经精度检验,灰色预测结果精度高,且与实际相符。与传统预测方法相比较其更科学、更合理。 相似文献
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道路交通安全是一个复杂的系统,其影响因素多且各因素之间相互作用。作为道路重要组成部分的平面交叉口路段,其交通事故的成因也是多方面的。文中从总体上概括了道路平面交叉口交通事故的起因;在此基础上,结合广州西二环高速公路出口处环岛交叉口工程实例,运用主成分分析法对其交通事故主成因进行了分析研究。 相似文献
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结合实际交通事故,运用道路安全调查与分析、因果分析图法、道路安全评价等方法,对交通事故进行剖析。通过对交通事故的驾驶员、车载道具、道路线形、道路环境、安全管理等多方面进行研究,综合分析事故发生的原因,并针对各项影响因素做出评价,提出相应的预防性对策,为交通事故的减少提供参考性建议。 相似文献
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正2018年1月7日,中办国办印发《关于推进城市安全发展的意见》,部署加强城市安全治理工作。城市道路交通安全是城市安全的重要组成部分,推进道路交通安全管理对强化城市安全基础有重大现实意义。为此,公安部道路交通安全研究中心进行了专题研究,梳理归纳了城市道路交通安全发展的阶段性特征,并提出相关对策建议,以供参考。我国城市道路里程仅占全国道路总里程的7.5%,但城市道路交通事故却占全国道路交通事故的45.8%,城市道路交通事故伤亡人数占全国 相似文献
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交通事故预测的灰色GM(1,1)模型 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在分析道路交通安全系统灰色属性的基础上,提出将道路交通事故作为道路交通安全系统行为特征量处理,运用灰色理论和方法进行道路交通事故预测,在此基础上,建立了道路交通事故的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并通过实例验证了预测模型的适用性。 相似文献
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It is well known that traffic accidents are of high importance to the public health spectrum around the world. Moreover, in developing countries such as Vietnam, the mortality rate from road traffic accidents is rather high in comparison with other Southeast Asian countries. Not only do the majority of the people killed and seriously injured significantly affect the quality of life of the citizens, but traffic accidents also negatively impact a nation's economic and social development. Statistics show that far more people are injured or die in traffic accidents than are afflicted by any of the most serious diseases. The very high occurrence of traffic accidents in Vietnam has become one of the country's major social issues. The importance of human factors in transport policy discussion is growing. There is a realization that policy options that appear beneficial in principle have to be checked for their feasibility of implementation. Understanding and describing driver behavior become a challenge when one tries to identify driver errors in determining accident/conflict causal factors and countermeasures.In recent years, having understood the serious effects of traffic accidents on society at large, scientific researchers, traffic engineers and policy makers in Vietnam have developed many projects and conducted research in the field of traffic safety. The human factor is also considered to be the central element in the whole system. The final goal is to organize a traffic environment that is convenient and safe for road users.This article explains the application of the risk analysis approach in evaluating influences of education and enforcement in traffic safety. 相似文献
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《国际交通安全学会研究报告》2010,34(2):87-93
It is well known that traffic accidents are of high importance to the public health spectrum around the world. Moreover, in developing countries such as Vietnam, the mortality rate from road traffic accidents is rather high in comparison with other Southeast Asian countries. Not only do the majority of the people killed and seriously injured significantly affect the quality of life of the citizens, but traffic accidents also negatively impact a nation's economic and social development. Statistics show that far more people are injured or die in traffic accidents than are afflicted by any of the most serious diseases. The very high occurrence of traffic accidents in Vietnam has become one of the country's major social issues. The importance of human factors in transport policy discussion is growing. There is a realization that policy options that appear beneficial in principle have to be checked for their feasibility of implementation. Understanding and describing driver behavior become a challenge when one tries to identify driver errors in determining accident/conflict causal factors and countermeasures.In recent years, having understood the serious effects of traffic accidents on society at large, scientific researchers, traffic engineers and policy makers in Vietnam have developed many projects and conducted research in the field of traffic safety. The human factor is also considered to be the central element in the whole system. The final goal is to organize a traffic environment that is convenient and safe for road users.This article explains the application of the risk analysis approach in evaluating influences of education and enforcement in traffic safety. 相似文献
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在收集和整理兰州市近10年来的道路交通事故统计数据的基础上,利用统计分析的方法,研究了交通事故的规律,分析了交通事故的成因,将事故成因的分析作为交通安全规划的指标体系,通过衡量这些因素的权重和对这些因素的分析提出了预防和改善措施,以便对交通安全进行合理的规划,从而达到降低交通事故,减少伤亡人数和经济损失,配合交通管理部门做好交通管理的目的。 相似文献
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为研究高速公路交通事故与气象条件之间的关系,以京津塘高速公路为例,对2007年3月-2010年2月逐月发生的交通事故次数、伤亡人数以及相应气象资料进行相关性分析。研究表明:(1)全程交通事故发生次数存在两个高峰,分别是4~6月的鞍形高峰和10月的次高峰,2月发生交通事故的次数最少。伤亡人数和交通事故的时间分布存在较大差异。从全程来看,伤亡人数最多的月份为7月,次多的月份为4月和10月。交通事故和伤亡事故的易发性由高到低都是河北、北京和天津。(2)相对于交通事故发生次数,气象条件和伤亡人数之间的相关性更好,主要是由于恶劣气象条件往往引起车辆失控或严重影响驾驶员判断等。以后在月际尺度研究气象交通安全时,应着重研究造成伤亡的交通事故。(3)伤亡人数和降水量、相对湿度之间呈显著的正相关关系,和能见度、气压之间呈显著的负相关关系。 相似文献
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针对城市快速路网中交通事故频发的现象,为及时准确地对事故进行识别,提出一种基于宏观交通流模型的状态观测器估计算法.根据利用交通仿真软件Paramics的实验数据,并结合元胞传输模型(CTM)理论分析事故发生前后,事故路段及其上下游路段的交通流密度分布特征.同时基于路网的交通流模型构建了城市快速路事故的状态观测器估计模型,模型通过估计密度的变化规律,并结合交通状态分布特征来对事故进行识别.以京通快速路为例,通过对观测器估计误差进行计算,得出了实验路段平均百分比误差(MPE)的均值为11.56%,模型估计精度为88.44%.该方法能较为准确的对事故进行识别,为快速路中的交通事故识别提供有效的参考. 相似文献
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高速公路交通事故的快速处理对于减少交通事故损失及避免二次事故具有重要的意义。该文在分析当前高速公路交通事故现状的基础上,指出了高速公路交通事故快速处理的重要性。针对不同类型的交通事故,详细分析了影响交通事故快速处理的主要因素,进而提出了相应解决对策。 相似文献
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《国际交通安全学会研究报告》2022,46(1):36-45
While the number of road fatalities is declining in developed countries, it is still increasing globally, especially in middle-and low-income countries. In addition to the driver's individual awareness and attitude toward traffic safety, various factors such as the development of road infrastructure and the legal system may have a significant influence on the occurrence of traffic accidents. Thus, it is essential to consider these factors to enhance traffic safety and achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Targets of 3.6.In this study, we developed an Elastic Net Regression model to evaluate the factors that influence an individual's traffic violations and accidents based on an international questionnaire on traffic safety attitude, country fact survey data on traffic regulations, and other statistical databases. As a result, it was revealed that: i) In addition to country-level factors, the individual's attributes and attitudes toward traffic safety have an influence on the experience of traffic violations and accidents. and ii) While the same variables regarding individual attributes and attitudes are selected for both traffic violations and accidents, the selected variables relating to country factors differ between violations and accidents. 相似文献