北极东北航道安全策略

东北航道（NEP）一般是指西起挪威北角附近的欧洲西北部,经欧亚大陆和西伯利亚的北部沿岸,穿过白令海峡到达太平洋的航线集合。东北航道是一个区域概念,非固定航线,船舶穿越东北航道视冰情,在不同海域可选择不同航线。由于东北航道海域存在冰、低温、高纬度、偏远等环境特点,现下还存在颇多船舶航行安全风险。对于业界关心的如何针对冰区对船舶进行改造,冰区航行操作等一系列问题,本文作者用亲历“永盛”轮首航北极东北航道的经验,向读者作出解答。     

2021年商船北极东北航道航行回顾及思考

比较2020年与2021年夏季同期海冰情况,对2021年北极东北航道航行情况进行回顾,分析东北航道冰区预报调整对航行安全的影响,预测北极东北航道的利用前景,对采用东北航道航行的船公司和船长提出建议。     

中国船舶首次穿越北极东北航道纪实

随着全球气候变暖,北冰洋海冰的快速消融,使北极东北航道的开通成为了可能。我国第五次北极科学考察队乘坐中国"雪龙"号极地考察船,完成了我国航海史上在北极东北航道的首次航行。笔者参加了我国第五次北极科学考察,记录了从2012年7月22日至8月2日"雪龙"号船首航东北航道的实际情况和航经水域的气象水文特点,并对东北航道的适航性进行了初步探讨。     

近三年北极东北航道航行探索实践

回顾近三年北极东北航道航线开发的情况及取得的成效,介绍探索和开拓北极项目的最佳实践,包括项目研讨与开发、航海实践与体会、风险分析与控制等。最后总结北极东北航道航线的应用前景及中国积极介入北极事务的意义。     

基于POLARIS的北极东北航道通航窗口研究

北极水域复杂的海冰冰情严重影响着北极东北航道的可通航性,不同冰级的船舶在不同冰情的水域航行时面临不同的航行风险,导致通航条件不同,相应可通航的窗口期也不相同。研究基于国际海事组织(International Maritime Organization, IMO)提出的极地操作限制评估风险指数系统(Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System, POLARIS),利用2011—2020年的北极海冰冰情数据结合“永盛”轮船舶冰级,计算北极水域风险指数结果(Risk Index Outcome, RIO)和“永盛”轮首航北极东北航道的航线RIO,确定北极东北航道不同通航条件航段占比,提取2011—2020年该冰级船舶可安全航行的航道通航窗口。结果表明：北极东北航道近10 a平均通航起始日为8月30日,通航结束日为11月16日,平均通航期为79 d。研究分析各年接近通航周的通航受限航段,识别了影响北极东北航道通航窗口的关键水域。有关研究方法和结果可为不同冰级船舶结合航线冰情制定航行计划以及船公司根据船舶冰级合理安排船期提供参考和...     

基于实船观测的北极东北航线窗口期海冰冰情研究

随着全球气候变暖,北极海冰覆盖范围的日趋减小使得北极航道的夏季通航性不断提高.与通过苏伊士运河的传统航线相比,北极东北航道可以节省欧洲和亚洲之间近三分之一的航行距离.然而,北极海冰不可避免地为北极航运带来极大的挑战.为此,在2018年夏季窗口期期间在中远"天佑号"东北航道航行过程中对航线冰情开展了走航观测.通过船载摄像机对航道中的海冰视频图像进行采集,并通过图像处理软件对海冰密集度进行提取.数据显示,窗口航道中海冰类型主要为低密集度的碎冰且部分碎冰内部夹杂着冰脊,其中平均密集度为17.8％,而最高值可达80％.此外,将视频数据与遥感数据进行对比分析,结果表明卫星遥感数据在低密集度(0-0.2)时存在一定的低估,而在较高密集度下则偏向高估.     

北极东北航道夏季海冰冰情与适航性分析

利用经过交叉定标处理后的多源被动微波遥感数据,结合我国"雪龙船"科考船和"永盛轮"商船东北航道航行资料,对北极东北航道夏季的海冰冰情进行分析,探讨东北航道2002～2016年7～10月的适航性.结果表明:多源被动微波遥感数据经过交叉定标处理后,可有效减小其数据间的系统差异,获得一致性更好的长时序卫星观测资料;北极东北航道海冰冰情在逐年减轻,航道适航性愈加良好;航道开通时间窗口集中在8月上旬至10月上旬.北极东北航道中段受海冰影响较大,但海冰影响呈减小趋势,可通航天数不断增加,其中维利基茨基海峡是影响通航的关键区域.北极东北航道夏季海冰冰情与适航性分析可为我国科考船和商船北极安全航行提供参考.     

北极航道航行船舶操纵性设计需求分析

随着全球变暖引起的海冰大面积消退,使得北极海上通航逐渐成为可能,而北极航道地形复杂、气候寒冷的特点对航行于该海域船舶的操纵性提出了不同的要求。分析北极航道水域特点和气候环境条件,提出浅水、狭航道、浮冰、气温、能见度和风等因素为开展该航区航行船舶操纵性设计所必须考虑的因素,而由这些因素引起的船舶航行速度的下降也是影响操纵性的因素之一。通过对上述因素的分析,建议在设计船舶时选取更大的舵面积系数,并留取一定的设计舵角余量,同时在设计阶段还应开展多个航速的操纵性计算预报。

     

北极东北航道航海实践及常态化航行展望

为探索和开拓北极东北航线,2013年8月15日至9月10日,中远集团永盛轮从中国太仓港出发,成功穿越北极东北航道安全抵达荷兰鹿特丹港,成为中国首艘穿越北冰洋的商船。2015年7月22日,永盛轮再航北极,从中国江阴港出发,于8月18日抵达瑞典瓦尔贝里港,并于9月5日从德国汉堡港返航东行穿越东北航道,于10月3日安全抵达天津港,实现双向通行。永盛轮三次成功穿越北极东北航道的航海实践,为助推北极航道开发、探讨其常态化运营积累了经验,提供了数据支持。     

北极航运及冰区船舶主机功率探讨

简要介绍北极地区航运情况与特点,分别利用芬兰-瑞典冰级规范、芬兰-瑞典冰级规范导则及美国船级社抗冰级船舶指导说明,对一艘阿芙拉型(Aframax)油轮进行1A冰级主机功率加强计算,指出规范计算1A冰级阿芙拉型油轮的不足。讨论虽然针对1A冰级船舶,但对于PC7级船舶的主机功率计算也有指导意义。     

Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

Measuring the thicknesses of the freshwater-layer plume and sea ice in the land-fast ice region of the Mackenzie Delta using helicopter-borne sensors

Helicopter-borne sensors have been used since the early 1990s to monitor ice properties in support of winter marine transportation along the east coast of Canada. The observations are used in ice chart production and to validate ice hazard identification algorithms using satellite advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) imagery. In this study we evaluated the sensors' additional capability to monitor the freshwater plume characteristic beneath land-fast ice. During the Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study (CASES) data were collected over the Mackenzie Delta in the southern Beaufort Sea where a buoyant river plume exists. Results showed that the electromagnetic–laser system could describe not only the ice properties but also the horizontal distribution of the freshwater plume depths that decreased in depth stepwise offshore as the flow of the buoyant plume was restricted by a series of ridge-rubble fields running parallel to the coast. Relative to the 2 m mean ice thickness, the plume layer depth varied from zero under mobile offshore pack ice to 3 m inshore of the third set of ridge-rubble fields.     

海上编队信息类型与流转模式分析

充分认识分析海上编队信息类型和流转模式,有助于取得信息优势.本文从不同层次范围出发,提出一种编队信息分类方式,在此基础上分析全局范围和编队范围的信息流转模式,最后依据分析结果提出了相关建议.     

临河(湖、海)工程航道通航条件影响评价关键要素研究

文章通过分析总结,明确了临河(湖、海)工程的定义,对其包含的具体内容予以了界定,并把所有临河(湖、海)工程系统地归纳为五大类型。根据各工程建筑物类型,提出了评价的关键要素与侧重点。     

The environmental costs and economic implications of container shipping on the Northern Sea Route

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has tremendous potential for ocean shipping between Europe and Asia due to the savings from shorter transit time and distance. However, the Arctic area is environmentally vulnerable and thus there is a trade-off between NSR’s impacts on environment vs. its economic benefits, especially when compared with the traditional route, such as through the Suez Canal Route (SCR). This study estimates the market shares of different transport modes and alternative shipping routes for the container transport market between Europe and Asia, and the resulting environmental costs. Our result suggests that NSR can be a viable option under the status quo. However, its environmental costs tend to be higher than SCR due to small ship size and low load factor in the present, thus the development of NSR would lead to worse environment outcomes. If these issues can be resolved, NSR can benefit from lower operational and environmental costs, which will lead to higher market share and social welfare. Otherwise, increased use of NSR may lead to higher total environment costs than the status quo.     

中国沿海航路和定线制规划实施的测绘对策研究

文中介绍了我国沿海航路和定线制规划,并结合国外航路的制定和测绘保障措施的建立,提出了实施这些航路和定线制规划的测绘保障对策。     

Economic feasibility of an NSR/SCR-combined container service on the Asia-Europe lane: a new approach dynamically considering sea ice extent

The trend towards global warming and the rapid decline in the extent of summer Arctic sea ice over recent years has increased the feasibility of international Arctic shipping. In this study we propose a seasonal NSR (North Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping service linking Shanghai and Rotterdam, using the Northern Sea Route during the economical navigable window but using the traditional Suez Canal Route at other times. Different from the previous literatures, this paper dynamically considers the sea ice extent in the model, which is more reasonable for the assessment of Arctic container shipping, because fuel consumption is highly related to ship speed, while ship speed is determined by the relative distances of ice-covered and ice-free route stages. A new approach is developed to predict the time points at which the ship enters and exits the ice-covered stage, given that both the ship position and the extent of sea ice are constantly changing. The results show that the NSR/SCR-combined Arctic container service can be more economical than the SCR, given lower NSR tariffs.     

某核电工程海区水沙条件分析

为了从宏观上论证某拟建核电取水工程平面布局的合理性,依据大量实测资料,研究了该工程海区的水动力条件、泥沙环境以及岸滩冲淤演变特征。通过研究表明,该工程水域水动力不强、含沙量低、岸滩基本处于稳定状态,外界泥沙来源较少,在合理布置取水工程后不会产生较强的泥沙淤积问题。此外还结合该区的波浪及底质特点讨论了取水口位置,并进一步给出了局部防淤的相关措施。