基于海况参数分析的船体梁载荷预报方法研究

利用三维势流理论在频域内计算载荷频率响应函数,在此基础上对船舶波浪载荷长短期预报方法进行了研究,分析了现有的长期预报方法,并提出只针对特定的一部分短期海况进行分析,以确定船舶在营运寿命期内航行于实际海况中的波浪载荷特征最大值。同时提出了一种基于多项式拟合的波浪载荷预报方法,建立了短期响应的最可能极值关于海浪有义波高与海浪平均向上跨零周期的函数,可以方便地确定响应的特征值。结果表明,提出的方法能够有效进行波浪载荷的预报,可供有关专业人员参考。     

助推节能扭曲舵性能的理论预报

本文提出了一种新型助推节能扭曲舵性能的升力面理论预报方法。螺旋桨后尾流场诱导速度的计算采用准非线性升力线理论；采用定常非线性涡格法计算处于桨舵诱导速度场中扭曲舵的环量分布，进而计算扭曲舵的附加轴向助推力。扭曲舵的水动力性能计算结果与实验值相符，说明该方法是一种有效的预报方法。     

预报发生在双峰交叉海况下的畸形波（英文）

本文首次提出一个新颖的转换线性模拟法用于预报发生在双峰交叉海况下的波峰幅值分布和畸形波。为执行所提出的转换线性模拟法，建立了一个表达为单调指数函数的转化模型，以便原始真实过程的前三阶矩与转化后模型对应的各阶矩相一致。应用所提出的新颖模拟法预报了发生在两个双峰交叉海况下的畸形波，一个带基于由良港海岸测得的表面高程数据的方向谱，另一个带典型的双峰Ochi-Hubble方向波浪谱。结果显示：在这两种情况下所提出的新颖的转换线性模拟法比传统的线性模拟法或用其它理论（或经验）模型能提供更精确的预报结果；所提出的新颖的转换线性模拟法比非线性模拟法效率更高。     

海洋环境噪声预报建模与算法研究

对海洋环境噪声分布特征进行预报，是有利于探索抑制海洋环境噪声的有效方法。本文依据海洋环境噪声谱级的实测数据，利用三次样条插值法建立了海洋环境噪声预报模型，并对我国北海浅海区的环境噪声谱级进行了预报，预报结果与实测功率谱图基本一致。在建立海洋环境噪声预报模型的基础上，提出了海洋环境噪声生成算法，仿真表明，该算法能生成具有任何振幅分布的、谱级曲线满足要求的海洋环境噪声序列。因此，本研究在工程上有参考价值。     

迎浪状态下高速双体船的运动响应计算

给出一种基于切片理论的预报高速排水型船在波浪上运动性能的数值方法。在切片理论的定解条件中，自由面条件是三维的，而控制方程和物面条件则是二维的。采用时域自由面Green函数将定解问题转化为物面上的积分方程，进而求解水动力系数和船舶运动方程。对NPL系列单体船型的运动性能作了理论预报，并与实验结果和用切片法的理论预报结果作了比较。结果表明，切片理论在航速低的情况下预报结果与试验结果更为接近，由于受到纯二维假定的限制，在高航速情况下预报精度较差。     

浮式防波堤的研究

本文研究了在规则波作下锚泊浮堤的运动响应、消波性能、横漂力引起的提体横漂量以及链的受力情况，并预报浮堤在不规则波中的消波性能。理论计算应用了Frank源汇分布法和Grim切片理论，采用丸尾的远场积分法计算二阶漂移力，采用Kim法计算无穷远处的反射波波幅，用传统的悬链线理论对锚泊系统作静力计算。研究目的在于用理论方法预测浮式防波堤的特性并优化防波堤的形状。研究结果已成功地用于三峡水库导航防波堤的设计。     

小水线面双体船在波浪中的运动响应预报

用切片理论方法发展了SWATH船耐波性预报程序，提供了390t方案的油田小水线面交通船计算分析结果，包括规则波中纵向运动频率响应函数的计算及不规则波中各种海况下的运动有义值预报。     

具有低频特性的二阶非线性系统随机响应最大值预报

本文通过把级数展开法与Kac－Siegert方法相结合，克服两者的不足之处，得到了精确的（包括渐近情况）极值分布表达式，并在此基础上得到了在某一时间内对应于某一概率的最大值的估算式，此外还得到了在一次观测中最有可能出现的最大值的估算式。通过模拟计算，证明公式是可靠的，且线性理论已不再适用于这类非线性系统。     

神经网络在板材滚弯加工中的应用

在板材滚弯时，如能建立上辊下降值和成形半径之间的关系，就能预报对应于成形半径的上辊下降值．通常采用线性回归方法建立这种关系，但其预报结果精度难以保证。本文基于人工神经网络理论，提出了新的预报上辊下降值的方法，并以对称式三辊弯板机为创作了计算和验证．     

空泡螺旋桨升力面理论设计方法

本文提供了一个局部空泡和超空泡同时存在的空泡螺旋桨或超空泡螺旋桨的升力面理论设计方法。在设计的第一阶段，基于由二元超空泡翼型的线性涡分布面元法获得的一元超空泡翼型性能，应用娄勃氏诱导因子方法升力线理论初步确定空泡螺旋浆的几何形状，如：桨叶轮廓、剖面形状、径向负荷分布和螺距分布等。然后，用局部空泡和超空泡螺旋桨的升力面性能预报方法计算设计桨的几何形状和性能，并对设计桨进行 ，最后得到考虑了三因次影响后满足设计要求的空泡螺旋桨。     

船体结构直接计算法中垂向波浪弯矩的确定

根据极值统计学原理，论证了长期特征最大值和长期极值特征值之间的关系，即当弯矩循环次数充分大时，最可能极值即为特征最大值，设计极值即为设计最大值。根据这一结论，提出了一种估算船舶垂向非线性波浪弯矩长期特征最大值的简便方法，使计算大为简化。     

船体主要载荷效应的随机组合

基于静水载荷的时间变异性，导出了一种静水载荷效应与波浪载荷效应组合的新方法，同基于FBC（Ferry Borges Castenbete）模型或随机过程的上跨率的组合形式相比较，此方法的概念更清晰，计算更容易实施，考虑到规范中给定的最大允许静水载荷效应对应的普遍接受的超越概率水平，以及静水载荷过程跨越某一固定水平的概率的上界特性，规定静水载荷过程超越二十年最大允许载荷效应的概率为确珲载荷效应特征值的概率水平，经过这样处理，避免了载荷效应特征值的过高估计，通过数值分析检验方法的有效性，结果表明本文的方法可以得到级合载荷效应特征极值的一致估计。     

Estimation of extreme significant wave heights and the associated uncertainties: A case study using NORA10 hindcast data for the Barents Sea

The reliability of an offshore structure is dependent on its response to the extreme wave climate; therefore, an adequate knowledge of the wave climate at a location is a prerequisite during design as well as in marine operations. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of the extreme wave climate in the Norwegian Sector of the Barents Sea, using wave hindcast datasets from the Norwegian Reanalysis 10 km (NORA10) database for four locations.We have considered three commonly used methods for the estimation of extreme wave heights, that is, the initial distribution method, the peak over threshold method, and the annual maxima method. The parametric bootstrap concept is considered in the estimation of the epistemic uncertainty related to sample size. The estimated 100-year significant wave heights obtained from the three methods differ, and the degree of variability in the estimates varies, depending on the dataset. The epistemic uncertainty due to sample size is wider when considering the annual maxima method.The estimates obtained from the three methods show the importance of considering different methods and their associated uncertainties when estimating extreme wave values for design. While it is difficult to single out the best method among the three, the estimated values give knowledge of the possible range of the extreme significant wave heights at the locations. Generally, the datasets considered in this study suggest that the wave climate is less harsh further north compared to the southern region of the Barents Sea. The datasets do not suggest any temporal trends in the historical significant wave heights at any of the locations.     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

Calculating the return value using a mathematical model of significant wave height

This study presents a new method for calculating return values. The essence of the method is that it utilizes nonstationary data to calculate the return value for a region in the Northeast Pacific. The nonstationary data was obtained from a model which was previously developed for the behavior of the significant wave height as a function of time in the region. The method is illustrated by convolving two generalized Pareto distribution functions fitted to two parts of the model, computing a suitable extreme value from the new distribution function, and calculating the return value using this extreme value.     

Prediction of most probable extreme values for jackup dynamic analysis

Many important technical issues in the design of deep water jackup rigs stem from the prediction of extreme values of global design parameters such as platform sway, base shear, and overturning moment. Several analytical methods primarily based on time-domain dynamic simulation have been recommended in SNAME T&R Bulletin 5–5A (hereafter referred to as “the Bulletin”) in the realm of the so-called most probable maximum extreme. This paper compares the four major dynamic, time-domain methods recommended in the Bulletin, investigates the random seed effect on each method, exams the convergence of the statistical properties within the recommended time simulation, and presents the impact on the dynamic response due to various parameters, e.g. leg-to-hull flexibility, P-delta effect and foundation fixity. Comparison among the four methods is presented in terms of the calculated extreme values and the corresponding dynamic amplification factors. The structural models employed in this investigation were constructed to reflect the behavior of two jackup rigs in service. These rigs were purposely selected to represent two of the most widely used jackup designs, which are of different leg types, different chord types, and designed for different water depth.     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

不同方法对南黄海重现波高计算值的影响

采用SWAN波浪模型对江苏南黄海地区1979~2018年共40 a的波况进行模拟及验证,将模拟结果与实测资料进行比对,吻合良好。百年重现波高分布通过基于年极值和月极值的广义极值分布函数(GEV)和超阈值取值方法(POT)的广义帕累托分布模型(GP)计算得出。计算结果表明,不同方法的计算结果在辐射沙洲北部地区差别最大,采用月极值所得重现波高偏小,采用年极值计算的重现波高在辐射沙洲南北外围地区最大,其余地区则以POT方法为大值。在分别采用不同数据长度计算重现波高的试验中得出,取月极值的GEV分布计算结果对时间跨度的改变不敏感,而取年极值受之影响最大,POT方法介于两者之间。     

Modified environmental contour method for predicting long-term extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines

Predicting extreme responses is very important in designing a bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines. The commonly used method that account for the variability of the response and the environmental conditions is the full long-term analysis (FLTA), which is accurate but time consuming. It is a direct integration of all the probability distribution of short-term extremes and the environmental conditions. Since the long-term extreme responses are usually governed by very few important environmental conditions, the long-term analysis can be greatly simplified if such conditions are identified. For offshore structures, one simplified method is the environmental contour method (ECM), which uses the short-term extreme probability distribution of important environmental conditions selected on the contour surface with the relevant return periods. However, because of the inherent difference of offshore wind turbines and ordinary offshore structures, especially their non-monotonic behavior of the responses under wind loads, ECM cannot be directly applied because the environmental condition it selects is not close to the actual most important one.The paper presents a modified environmental contour method (MECM) for bottom-fixed offshore wind turbine applications. It can identify the most important environmental condition that governs the long-term extreme. The method is tested on the NREL 5 MW wind turbine supported by a simplified jacket-type support structure. Compared to the results of FLTA, MECM yields accurate results and is shown to be an efficient and reliable method for the prediction of the extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines.