广州港吞吐量预测

2005年广州港货物吞吐量达到2．5亿吨，增长16．34％，位居世界港口第五位；集装箱吞吐量为468万TEU，增长41．5％。南沙港区投产后第一个完整年度就突破100万TEU，达到108万TEU。随着周边港口的繁荣发展和崛起，未来五年广州港吞吐量和发展将如何变化？现根据广州港的实际情况和未来规划，我们简要地对广州港未来5年吞吐量进行预测，以求探索和把握其发展规律。然而，对港口吞吐量进行预测，是一项挑战性的工作。它是制定港口发展战略、规划的重要依据，要对它进行较为准确的预测并不容易。因为它受到国内外宏观经济环境，港口能力、市场份额等众多不确定因素影响。     

国内港口吞吐量略有增长

随着国民经济企稳回升，大宗货物需求持续回暖．煤炭、原油、金属矿石、矿建材料等运输需求逐步回暖，港口货物吞吐量继续稳步增长。在经过快速下滑、止跌企稳、稳步回升三个阶段后．上半年港口货物吞吐量呈现正增长。6月份，在进口煤炭、铁矿石大幅增长的拉动下，外贸增速超过内贸近3个百分点。上半年．港口货物吞吐量完成26．4亿吨，同比增长0．5％。其中：外贸95亿吨，同比下降1．3％。二季度，港口货物吞吐量完成14．3亿吨，同比增长5％；6月份完成4．7亿吨，同比增长6．4％。     

港口吞吐量预测的时序残差修正Verhulst模型

灰色系统预测模型是一种进行港口吞吐量预测的有效方法。但是,当港口吞吐量按照“S”型曲线增长或增长处于饱和阶段时,采用灰色模型进行吞吐量预测的误差较大,预测精度不能满足实际要求。根据港口吞吐量的增长规律,通过典型实例提出了基于时序残差的港口吞吐量预测Verhulst模型,用于中长期港口吞吐量预测。应用结果表明,本模型对于那些暂时处于快速增长而从长远看按“S”型曲线增长的港口吞吐量预测具有较高的预测精度,同时保留了灰色预测方法的原有优势和特点。     

港口

中国港口共抗危机 中国港口协会理事长、上港集团董事长陆海祜近日强调，中国港口为应对当前危机须联手合作，以互补不足方式在经济危机下发展港口。他预测，全年全国规模以上港口完成的货物吞吐量可达64.8亿吨，同比增长4%；其中集装箱吞吐量预计达到1．2亿标箱，同比下降7％。     

港口

中国港口共抗危机 中国港口协会理事长、上港集团董事长陆海祜近日强调，中国港口为应对当前危机须联手合作，以互补不足方式在经济危机下发展港口。他预测，全年全国规模以上港口完成的货物吞吐量可达64.8亿吨，同比增长4%；其中集装箱吞吐量预计达到1．2亿标箱，同比下降7％。     

世界集装箱港口运输业前景分析

据英国海运咨询公司一份报告称,世界港口集装箱吞吐量到2005年将达到3.06亿—3.35亿TEU之间。亚洲港口集装箱吞吐量继续呈现最强劲的增长。1995年世界集装箱吞吐量已达到1.42亿TEU。 一、世界港口集装箱吞吐量预测 据上述报告称,世界港口集装箱吞吐量到2000年将增长57％达到2.22亿TEU,到2005年则至少增长116％。到2010年,世界港口集装箱吞吐量可望至少增长176％,达到3.91亿—4.65亿TEU。在1995—2000年之间,世界港口集装箱吞吐量预计每年增长9％。在2000—2005年之间,平均每年增长7—9％,在2005—2010年之间,平均每年增长5—7％。比较乐观的预测是在贸易自由化发展、经合组织国家内部贸易保护主义的进     

基于聚类的港口吞吐量预测方法及其适用性分析

在统计分析历史数据的基础上,选取港口吞吐量、GDP值等指标,采用SPSS统计分析软件中的层次聚类分析法,将我国具有代表性的港口按照吞吐量增长规律分成平稳增长型、加速增长型和波动增长型3类。然后选择时间序列法、回归分析法、灰色模型理论和神经网络模型法,对不同类型的港口吞吐量预测的适用性进行了理论分析。最后以上海港和镇江港为实例进行计算,并对不同预测方法的适用性进行了验证。     

“十四五”珠三角沿海港口分重点货类吞吐量发展趋势预测*

在分析珠三角沿海港口主要腹地经济、贸易增长变化和重点产业产品产量变化等基础上，系统回顾港口货物吞吐量、分重点货类吞吐量及其结构性变化特征。基于未来珠三角区域经济、贸易、产业结构变化趋势的判断，针对不同货类特点及适应性，综合选择采用线性回归、非线性回归、曲线拟合、货运强度、弹性系数等多种预测方法，对珠三角沿海港口货物和分货类吞吐量进行分析预测。预计未来，珠三角港口货物吞吐量仍将继续保持增长，2025年货物吞吐量规模在17.0亿t左右，2022—2025年期间年均增速在4%左右，其中集装箱吞吐量将达0.7亿TEU，2022—2025年期间年均增速在3.2%左右。     

国内港口吞吐量略有回升

随着国家一揽子计划政策效应的显现．国内大宗商品运输需求升温．港口货物吞吐量连续三个月正增长。由于铁矿石、煤炭、原油等货物进口加快．港口外贸货物吞吐量再次现出正增长（3月份41％．4月份-0．9％）。港口货物吞吐量和外贸货物吞吐量环比增长分别达到3．3和4．6个百分点。5月份，港口货物吞吐量完成546亿吨．同比增长5％。其中：外贸1.82亿吨．同比增长4．7％；内贸3．64亿吨，同比增长5．1％。     

对中国港口业发展的展望与思考

一、中国港口业的新发展 2004年中国的1430多个港口，34000余个生产泊位，共完成货物吞吐量417亿吨，同比增长213％；完成集装箱吞吐量6180万标准箱，同比增长261％，净增1280万标准箱；有8个港口跻身世界亿吨大港行列。2005年前3个季度，港口生产继续保持高位增长，全国主要港口累计完成货物吞吐量28．8亿吨，同比增长18．3％；完成国际集装箱吞吐量5423．48万标准箱，同比增长23．9％。     

Dynamics of change in the port system of the western Mediterranean

The ports of Mediterranean basin have experienced significant growth in container traffic over the last decade. In the western Mediterranean two distinct types of port have emerged: the established ports of the northern part of the basin which serve a gateway function and a set of new ports in the south which act as transhipment hubs. In this paper we explore the dynamics of change and reveal how growth is driven by shifts in individual trades. While the hub ports are integrated into Asian pendulum services, the gateway ports are experiencing growth because of new direct services to Asia and North America. We suggest that the distinctions between the transhipment hubs and the gateway ports are becoming blurred, especially because the gateway ports are also assuming greater transhipment roles. We also explore whether this new dynamism in the Mediterranean ports is reversing the long-standing hinterland domination of the ports of the northern range. We demonstrate that the gateway ports of the western Mediterranean continue to serve local and regional markets, with very limited penetration north of the Alps and Pyrenees. This is due in part to difficulties with rail services but also because of the continued efficiency of the northern range ports and their hinterland connections. We suggest that in the short run, at least, little change is likely.     

Canadian container ports: how have they fared? How will they do?

Between 1980 and 1989 container TEUs handled at all world ports increased by a factor of 2.11. On the East Coast of North America, the growth factor was only 1.69; on the West Coast, 2.23. These growth factors, when multiplied by the 1980 TEU volume at individual North American ports, give 1989 expected performance levels for the ports. Comparing the expected performance to the actual, it is found in the Canadian context that the big winner is Vancouver; the big loser is Saint John. Halifax and Montreal have outperformed their nearest US East Coast rivals but have not performed as well as southern ports on the Altantic Seaboard. These and other comparisons are made in order to describe how Canadian container ports have performed in the decade of the 1980s. The paper then speculates on how the ports will do in the future, based on a discussion of five factors: port facilities; inland transportation connections; shipping lines serving the ports; demand for container shipping; and legal arrangements between the United States and Canada.     

Disaster prevention and strategic investment for multiple ports in a region: cooperation or not

With the growth of maritime transportation, seaports have become critical to the world economy as linking nodes between shipping and inland transport. However, the port system is fragile under certain unconventional emergency events. This study addresses the issue of investment on disaster prevention within the port competition context. The present model discusses and compares four situations of different relationships and strategies of pre-disaster prevention between two adjacent ports. Results indicate that both ports increase the disaster prevention investment under the cooperation scenario compared with that in the case of non-cooperation wherein they are complementary ports. Meanwhile, a numerical simulation is conducted to examine the collective and individual rationality of both ports. Although cooperation strategy decreases the total risk cost of two ports, one of the two ports may profit, whereas the other may suffer losses.     

日本东京湾港口群的主要港口职能分工及启示

由于日本东京湾内港口群职能分工合理,使得狭小的港湾内云集了6个世界级的大型港口,而港口间不但没有形成恶性竞争,反而取得了良好的增长业绩。通过对其职能分工经验进行分析,结合我国环渤海各主要港口的基础与优势,从而提出环渤海各主要港口的职能分工的构想。     

Caribbean crushing: Competition among US homeports

The article explores the competitive aspects of US ports which provide cruise service to the Caribbean region. Via a shift-share analysis, growth at individual ports is apportioned into three components allowing for the suggestion of both long-and short-term planning strategis.     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.     

Marketing management at the world's major ports

Recent technological developments in maritime transport, particularly in container shipping and larger vessels, are having major repercussions at ports the world over. The latest wave of innovations has increased the level of competition in maritime transport, in particular in port activities. Shippers have many more alternatives available, something that tends to increase the hinterland of each port, precisely by reducing captive hinterlands. Ports are now generally moving towards formulas in which private initiative has a bigger role to play. Increases in competition combined with growth in private initiatives highlight the usefulness of marketing tools in two ways. Externally, because they help to achieve throughputs from remote points of origin and destination, and internally, by aiding the proper coordination of business and organizational activity at a commercial port. The present paper is a transversal study of the current situation of marketing and quality tools at major ports, including the opinions of a range of port commercial and marketing managers. We have also tried to describe the differentiated groups to be found at ports, as a useful methodology for identifying the nearest competition or ports with similar characteristics.     

The Caribbean basin: adjusting to global trends in containerization

Positioned strategically between major east–west and north–south trading routes, the Caribbean basin has become a locus of new service configurations in container shipping. Over the last decade global shipping lines have been restructuring their service networks in the region in order to integrate local services with the newly rationalized intercontinental connections. By comparing service network structures in 1994 and 2002 at three levels of organization—local, regional and global—we are able to show that although Caribbean ports are well connected to the global system, and while the total number of services has declined between the two years, those mounted by members of global alliances have increased. Moreover, services of the global carriers at the local and regional levels are on the increase. As much as the alliances are reshaping Caribbean networks, the smaller carriers are still playing a role, but at a reduced spatial scale. Parallel with the modifications to network configurations are the changes in the port system. Essentially, traffic of the most important ports in the north and western part of the basin has grown at slower rates than the ports in the south and east. These traffic changes are only partly related to network changes. It is the growth of transshipments that is driving the most important developments in port traffic and bringing to the forefront the development of hub ports. The most important are: Colon, Panama (southwest), Freeport, Bahamas (north), Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago (southeast), Kingston, Jamaica and Rio Haina, Dominican Republic (middle), and Cartagena, Colombia and Puerto Cabello, Venezuela (south).     

The Caribbean basin: adjusting to global trends in containerization

Positioned strategically between major east-west and north-south trading routes, the Caribbean basin has become a locus of new service configurations in container shipping. Over the last decade global shipping lines have been restructuring their service networks in the region in order to integrate local services with the newly rationalized intercontinental connections. By comparing service network structures in 1994 and 2002 at three levels of organization—local, regional and global—we are able to show that although Caribbean ports are well connected to the global system, and while the total number of services has declined between the two years, those mounted by members of global alliances have increased. Moreover, services of the global carriers at the local and regional levels are on the increase. As much as the alliances are reshaping Caribbean networks, the smaller carriers are still playing a role, but at a reduced spatial scale. Parallel with the modifications to network configurations are the changes in the port system. Essentially, traffic of the most important ports in the north and western part of the basin has grown at slower rates than the ports in the south and east. These traffic changes are only partly related to network changes. It is the growth of transshipments that is driving the most important developments in port traffic and bringing to the forefront the development of hub ports. The most important are: Colon, Panama (southwest), Freeport, Bahamas (north), Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago (southeast), Kingston, Jamaica and Rio Haina, Dominican Republic (middle), and Cartagena, Colombia and Puerto Cabello, Venezuela (south).     

非洲港口发展格局及趋势分析

梳理和分析非洲港口发展格局和趋势能够为我国企业参与非洲港口投资、建设、运营提供参考。对非洲港口发展现状、特点和存在问题进行梳理和总结,展望未来发展趋势。与全球其他地区相比,非洲港口在全球海运贸易总规模中的份额较低,港口发展以装卸仓储等基础、传统服务为主,港城矛盾、堆场不足、集疏运通道不畅、现代化和信息化水平低等问题普遍存在。随着全球经济和经贸形势总体长驱稳定,非洲经济产业长期将维持稳定增长,未来非洲港口投资建设需求依旧旺盛,区域港口发展格局将不断演变,港产城一体化、陆上物流通道等建设将加快。