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91.
92.
Benson H. Tongue Andrew K. Packard Professor Paul Sachi Graduate Research Assistant 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》1997,28(6):357-383
This paper presents a method with which one can evaluate alternative platooning control strategies with respect to worst case behavior. The motivation is to provide platoon control designers with an objective means of evaluating robustness in the face of system uncertainties. The approach can be viewed as an extension of optimal control procedures and is applicable to complex, nonlinear systems. An arbitrary number of uncertain parameters, unmodeled components and inputs are allowed. The end result is a lower bound for the worst case platoon performance. 相似文献
93.
Gerard de Jong Andrew Daly Marits Pieters Stephen Miller Ronald Plasmeijer Frank Hofman 《Transportation》2007,34(4):375-395
This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts
for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related
measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are
treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty
in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.
相似文献
Gerard de JongEmail: |
94.
Estimation of ridership on a new transit system in an area where no comparable service existed before is a difficult task of transit planning. Traditional modal split models cannot be used in these cases, because no data or basis for developing a new model or adjusting a “borrowed” model are available. One of the techniques which can be used in this type of situation, is to perform a “concept test” based on public opinion. This approach, however, is plagued with the phenomenon of non-commitment bias of interviewees, and tends to overestimate the ridership. A new fixed route and fixed schedule transit service in Johnson City in Tennessee provided a rare opportunity to perform an investigation on the non-commitment bias through “before” and “after” surveys. The analysis of the non-commitment and actual responses of a sample of residents revealed substantial bias. Overall, the non-commitment ridership estimate was about twice (100% greater than) the actual ridership.:It was also observed that the bias was higher for persons owning automobiles, and for work and shopping trips. 相似文献
95.
Activity scheduling simulation models represent an emerging and proposing approach to forecasting travel demand. The most
significant developmental challenge is the lack of empirical data on how people actually proceed through the scheduling and
conflict resolution process. This paper develops a new methodology to collect data about the rescheduling decision process.
The data collection involves six stages: preplanned schedule interview, coding of the preplanned schedule, second-by-second
Global Positioning System tracking, internet-based prompted recall diary, detection of rescheduling decisions (via comparison
of planned versus executed activities), and a final in-depth interview probing the how and why of rescheduling decisions.
Each stage of the methodology is described in detail with example results drawn from a pilot study. Key discoveries include:
elicitation of multiple preplanned schedule reporting methods (verbal, point-form, calendar); discovery that activity attributes
(time, location, involved persons) are planned on significantly different time horizons and include partial elaboration; and
provision of new insights into how and why rescheduling decisions are made. A method for automatically tracking rescheduling
decisions was also discovered. Overall, the new methodology has potential to contribute to the development of more realistic
models of the entire scheduling process, especially rescheduling and conflict resolution sub-models. 相似文献
96.
The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling. The general emphasis
is on variations across respondents in relative taste parameters while maintaining the assumption of homogeneous utility maximising
decision rules. While recent work has allowed for differences in the utility specification across respondents in the context
of looking at heterogeneous information processing strategies, the underlying assumption that all respondents employ the same
choice paradigm remains. This is despite evidence in the literature that different paradigms work differently well on given
datasets. In this article, we argue that such differences may in fact extend to respondents within a single dataset. We accommodate
these differences in a latent class model, where individual classes make use of different underlying paradigms. We present
four applications using three different datasets, showing mixtures between “standard” random utility maximisation models and
lexicography based models, models with multiple reference points, elimination by aspects models and random regret minimisation
models. In each of the case studies, the behavioural mixing model obtains significant gains in fit over the base structure
where all respondents are hypothesised to use the same rule. The findings offer important further insights into the behavioural
patterns of respondents. There is also evidence that what is retrieved as taste heterogeneity in standard models may in fact
be heterogeneity in decision rules. 相似文献