Inter-comparing five forecast operational systems in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins: The MERSEA-strand1 methodology

The methodology to achieve a real time inter-comparison of five state-of-the-art operational forecast systems for the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins is presented. All systems provide analysis and near real-time prediction of the three-dimensional ocean through Opendap servers. A standard set of diagnostics called metrics, is described. Definition and examples of metrics are given. An inter-comparison of the five systems is conducted over a 1 year period using those metrics. It is shown that the methodology developed allows a successful inter-comparison. It has been adopted by the GODAE community. It is also shown that the systems are consistent with the current knowledge of the ocean circulation and climatologies. Systems are deficient in the representation of specific water masses characteristics as Mode waters. Data assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity solve such deficiencies. Metrics also allow a monitoring of the system's North Atlantic overturning stream function and will allow detecting any changes in the coming year system's thermohaline circulation.     

Suspended sediment and erosion dynamics in Kugmallit Bay and Beaufort Sea during ice-free conditions

The Mackenzie River is the largest river on the North American side of the Arctic and its huge freshwater and sediment load impacts the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. Huge quantities of sediment and associated organic carbon are transported in the Mackenzie plume into the interior of the Arctic Ocean mainly during the freshet (May to September). Changing climate scenarios portend increased coastal erosion and resuspension that lead to altered river-shelf-slope particle budgets. We measured sedimentation rates, suspended particulate matter (SPM), particle size and settling rates during ice-free conditions in Kugmallit Bay (3–5 m depth). Additionally, measurements of erosion rate, critical shear stress, particle size distribution and resuspension threshold of bottom sediments were examined at four regionally contrasting sites (33–523 m depth) on the Canadian Beaufort Shelf using a new method for assessing sediment erosion. Wind induced resuspension was evidenced by a strong relationship between SPM and wind speed in Kugmallit Bay. Deployment of sediment traps showed decreasing sedimentation rates at sites along an inshore–offshore transect ranging from 5400 to 3700 g m^− 2 day^− 1. Particle settling rates and size distributions measured using a Perspex settling chamber showed strong relationships between equivalent spherical diameter (ESD) and particle settling rates (r² = 0.91). Mean settling rates were 0.72 cm s^− 1 with corresponding ESD values of 0.9 mm. Undisturbed sediment cores were exposed to shear stress in an attempt to compare differences in sediment stability across the shelf during September to October 2003. Shear was generated by vertically oscillating a perforated disc at controlled frequencies corresponding to calibrated shear velocity using a piston grid erosion device. Critical (Type I) erosion thresholds (u) varied between 1.1 and 1.3 cm s^− 1 with no obvious differences in location. Sediments at the deepest site Amundsen Gulf displayed the highest erosion rates (22–54 g m^− 2 min^− 1) with resuspended particle sizes ranging from 100 to 930 µm for all sites. There was no indication of biotic influence on sediment stability, although our cores did not display a fluff layer of unconsolidated sediment. Concurrent studies in the delta and shelf region suggest the importance of a nepheloid layer which transports suspended particles to the slope. Continuous cycles of resuspension, deposition, and horizontal advection may intensify with reduction of sea ice in this region. Our measurements coupled with studies of circulation and cross-shelf exchange allow parameterization and modeling of particle dynamics and carbon fluxes under various climate change scenarios.     

Travel mode choice: affected by objective or subjective determinants?

This contribution presents theoretical considerations concerning the connections between life situation, lifestyle, choice of residential location and travel behaviour, as well as empirical results of structural equation models. The analyses are based on data resulting from a survey in seven study areas in the region of Cologne. The results indicate that lifestyles influence mode choice, although slightly, even when life situation is controlled for. The influence of life situation on mode choice exceeds the influence of lifestyle. The influence that lifestyle, and in part also life situation, has on mode choice is primarily mediated by specific location attitudes and location decisions that influence mode choice, respectively. Here objective spatial conditions as well as subjective location attitudes are important.

预应力CFRP板加固钢板受拉疲劳性能试验研究

为较好地预测预应力碳纤维材料(CFRP)板加固钢结构的疲劳性能,采用考虑有效应力强度因子幅的Pairs公式,分析了粘贴预应力CFRP板加固钢板的疲劳裂纹扩展行为.通过粘贴CFRP板的含中心孔的预制裂纹钢板的疲劳试验,分析了应力比、CFRP板刚度、预应力及粘结胶性能等因素对疲劳裂纹扩展的影响.试验结果表明:加固后结构的疲劳寿命提高16倍以上,疲劳寿命的理论分析结果偏于保守;预应力是疲劳寿命的主要影响因素,而CFRP板和粘结胶性能的影响有限;应力比埘疲劳寿命的影响很大,因此,对交通荷载的正确预估是加固能否取得成功的基础.     

KERFIX, a time-series station in the Southern Ocean: a presentation

Between January 1990 and March 1995, the research project KERFIX undertook the first regular noncoastal multiyear acquisition of parameters related to the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean at a time series station located at 50°40′ S–68°25′ E, 60 miles southwest of the Kerguelen Islands. The objectives of KERFIX are (1) to monitor the ocean/atmosphere CO₂ and O₂ exchanges and to understand which processes govern these exchanges (2) to observe and interpret the seasonal and interannual variability of the production, flux, decomposition and dissolution of carbon and associated elements at this location. In addition, micropaleontological studies describe the present and past flux dynamics in this oceanic area, to improve the knowledge of the transfer functions of some oceanographic proxies. This paper presents a survey of the KERFIX program: scientific objectives, organization of the field operations and some main results obtained since the beginning of KERFIX program, as well as the results of the temporal evolution of hydrological, chemical and biological parameters.     

Hydro-elastic analysis and optimization of a composite marine propeller

The present paper addresses the design and optimization of a flexible composite marine propeller. The aim is to tailor the laminate to control the deformed shape of the blade and consequently the developed thrust. The development of a hydro-elastic model is presented, and the laminate lay-up which minimizes the fuel consumption for the cruising and maximum speed conditions is simultaneously determined. Results show a reduction of 1.25% in fuel consumption for the combined case corresponding to a decrease of 4.7% in the cruising speed condition. Finally, the strength of the optimal blade is analyzed using the Tsai-Wu strength index. After local tailoring of the laminate configuration throughout the propeller a maximum value of 0.7 is determined indicating no failure will occur under normal operation conditions. The results suggest that it is possible to design a medium-sized flexible composite marine propeller that will enable a reduction of the fuel consumption while withstanding the imposed loads     

Modelling the effects of physical–biological interactions and spatial variability in spawning and nursery areas on transport and retention of sardine Sardinops sagax eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem

A particle-tracking individual-based model (IBM) coupled with a 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to investigate how spatial variability in spawning and nursery grounds may influence transport and retention of sardine (Sardinops sagax) eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem. A temperature-dependent Bělehrádek development model based on laboratory growth data was used to determine the duration of one egg and two larval stages. Successful transport/retention depended on each particle's stage of development rather than its age. Results show that recruitment could occur in two distinct nursery areas on the west and south coasts of South Africa. Three viable recruitment ‘systems’ were identified: two are retention-based (spawned and retained on the west coast (WC–WC) or the south coast (SC–SC)) and one is transport-based (spawned on the south coast and transported to the west coast (SC–WC)). In the WC–WC system, the vertical distribution of eggs influenced retention; at intermediate depths of spawning (25–50 m) eggs avoided both offshore Ekman drift and deep cold water. In the SC–SC system, the area of spawning was important; > 50% of eggs from the eastern Agulhas Bank (EAB) were retained in the south coast nursery grounds, whereas very few eggs were transported there from west of Cape Agulhas. In the SC–WC system, area of spawning was also important; 40% of the eggs spawned on the western Agulhas Bank (WAB) were transported to the west coast nursery ground. Sardine life history strategy could be divided between two main systems: the west coast system (spawning on the WAB and WC, and recruiting to the WC) and the Agulhas Bank system (spawning on the central and eastern Agulhas Bank, and recruiting to the SC).     

Drops in the bucket? A review of onshore responses to Somali piracy

That piracy needs to be addressed onshore is a widely shared assumption. While the majority of counter-piracy measures focus on the sea, a number of onshore counter-piracy initiatives have been launched. We can observe the seeds of an alternative land-based policy approach. One set of land-based programs aims at strengthening the legal and security state apparatus to better deter and punish pirates. The other set of programs aims at addressing local populations on regional, clan or village levels. Such projects aim at increasing surveillance, sensitizing populations for the consequences of piracy, and providing rehabilitation or alternative livelihood opportunities. In this article, I review the latter type of projects and discuss the promises and difficulties of addressing piracy by such measures. I discuss five major problems: knowledge problems, implementation problems, counterintuitive consequences, tensions towards other parts of counter-piracy strategy, and the securitization of aid.     

Quality system for the implementation of STCW-95 in higher maritime education in Norway

This paper contains and presents the topics relevant for the construction of a quality system for higher maritime education in the Faculty of Maritime Studies at Vestfold College in Norway. The quality system determines how the Faculty shall present and supply its courses with regard to accepted international quality standards with reference to STCW-95.     

Spatial multi-criteria assessment of potential lead markets for electrified vehicles in Europe

This study presents a modeling approach that focuses on the identification of potential lead markets for electric-drive vehicles (EDVs) in Europe. It is based on a combination of several selected economic, social, environmental, and transport-related factors. The modeling approach is implemented in a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support process with fuzzy measures, enabling an assessment at different spatial and temporal scales under different EDV market penetration scenarios for Europe. The decision support system embeds a multi-criteria analysis based on selected expert-weighted market penetration drivers. The spatial scale chosen for the application of the decision support process are NUTS2 regions and cities within EU27 member states. Three scenarios are investigated, a business as usual, a moderate change, and an accelerated innovation scenario. Across the scenario horizon, it is shown how lead regions for EDVs will be changing in time between first early-adopter areas towards other long-term potential lead regions, depending on the evolution of the market drivers. The European regions and cities which will have a higher lead market potential score in 2020 and 2030 are identified. Our model solution suggests that with the business-as-usual scenario there will be a few insular lead market areas in 2020 and a relatively limited number of more connected lead regions in 2030. The other two scenarios explored suggest a more positive picture leading for the case of the 2030 accelerated scenario to a wide distribution of EDVs across most of Germany, the Netherlands, France, the UK, Ireland, and Italy. The cities of London, Madrid, Berlin and Rome would show high EDV sales under this scenario.