Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

160 km/h高速货车转向架的研制

根据高速货车转向架的运用要求和运用条件,确定了160km/h高速货车转向架的主要技术参数;提出了整体焊接构架式有摇枕转向架的结构形式,介绍了其主体结构情况;结合转向架静强度和疲劳试验、线路动力学试验结果,得出了转向架设计是较为成功的结论。     

Hybrid neural network model for history-dependent automotive shock absorbers

The method of numerical multi-body simulation is an often used and well-understood development tool in the automotive industry. In order to reproduce the ride comfort or handling behaviour of vehicles, mathematical models have to be built up. To achieve accurate simulation results, highly detailed component models are required. However, the formulation of appropriate physically-based model equations of complex automotive components (e.g. air springs, shock absorbers, rubber bearings, tyres, etc.) can be very difficult. To handle this, empirical modelling methods have been developed. Simple algebraic equations are used to describe complex system behaviour. This simplification is very effective, although it largely ignores the natural laws of mechanics and thermodynamics but is still capable to predict the component response. This article illustrates how to take advantage of this approach in numerical simulations. We describe the development of a hybrid automotive shock absorber model based on both spline and neural network (NN) approaches. By combining these different approaches, an accurate model is achieved without loss of variability. Non-isothermal laboratory force-displacement measurements of an automotive shock absorber are being used to estimate the parameters of the NN. As shown, the model replicates the measured data with sufficient accuracy, especially the hysteresis. Finally, we present a set of quarter-car simulations with a built-in hybrid NN shock absorber.     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

美国的城市交通规划

介绍了今后几十年中将影响城市交通规划的一些重要趋势，讨论了今后交通规划者在十个领域可能面临的挑战。     

ECP制动在重载铁路上的运用

Wabtec缆接电空制动（ECP）系统正运用在Spoornet（南非）和CSX（美国）的运煤列车上，本文详细介绍了这2种列车上的ECP系统，并对它们的运用经验及最终效益进行了讨论。     

Static and Dynamic Instabilities of Bogie Railway Vehicles with Linkage Steered Wheelsets

The root loci of a type of bogie railway vehicle with linkage steered wheelsets are discussed and contrasted with those of conventional configurations. Approximate solutions of the equations of motion are used to derive stability criteria associated with the various modes of static and dynamic instability that are identified. The physical origin of each form of instability is discussed. It is shown that, in addition to the more common forms of dynamic instability arising from the joint action of creep, conicity and inertia, other forms of static and oscillatory instability are the result of structural asymmetry and wheelset articulation.     

Induced traffic and economic appraisal

Economic appraisal of major roads in the UK is based on a set of standard procedures and conventions. A central assumption has been that the volume and pattern of traffic in any given year is independent of the quality of service offered by the network — the fixed trip matrix assumption. Failing to consider induced traffic can have serious consequences for the accuracy and robustness of the measured traffic benefits from road improvements. Assessment of the wider economic benefits of roads, which is an important political imperative for road investment, is also made more difficult. Two conclusions are reached. Variable trip matrix methods need to be introduced for the appraisal of major road schemes, and scheme appraisal needs to be complemented by a more strategic area-wide approach to evaluation. In responding to its advisory committee (SACTRA), the UK Department of Transport has accepted the first of these conclusions and is cautiously favourable to the second.     

意大利铁路E.464型电力机车

E.464型电力机车专门用来牵引地区以及地区之间的旅客列车,它只有一端司机室.其总需求量为140台,首批订购了40台.该型机车采用三相交流异步牵引电动机,主电路元件为GTO,采用去离子水与乙二醇的混合液体冷却.文章介绍了该型机车的主要技术参数,给出了牵引特性曲线,分析了结构特点.     

The influence of the Agulhas Current on the adjacent coastal ocean: possible impacts of climate change

The dynamics of the coastal ocean along the southeastern coast of Africa is dominated by a strong and intense western boundary current, the Agulhas Current. With a near-uniform, narrow continental shelf and a steep shelf slope that stabilizes this current, the trajectory of the Agulhas exhibits great stability. The only substantial perturbation occurs with the irregular passage of a Natal Pulse, a soliton meander. The initiation of this meander at the Natal Bight is due to a barotropic instability when the intensity of the landward border of the current exceeds a certain threshold value. This may come about with natural fluctuations in the current or with the adsorption of deep-sea eddies onto the current. Under a climate change scenario of altered wind stress curl over the South Indian Ocean it is conceivable that the threshold for the triggering of a Natal Pulse will occur more frequently. This will lead to a situation where the current axis on average lies further offshore. The possible consequences of such a situation on the rainfall of the coast, on the ecology of estuaries and the coastal ocean, and on the socio-economics of the region is discussed.