放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆 集结排队系统分析

集结模式决定了货车集结过程的结束条件，定点集结是一种高效率的集结方式，有利于提高运输质量.针对放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆集结过程，建立离散时间批到达批服务排队模型，利用嵌入式马尔可夫链方法求得离去时刻瞬时系统集结车辆队长分布，并求得任意时刻车辆集结队长分布，在此基础上分别分析了最小编成辆数，车组大小分布，车流到达强度，服务时间间隔分布对车辆平均集结队长，集结延误时间，效率，一昼夜发送车流量等系统指标的影响.分析结果表明，各因素对车辆集结排队系统影响明显.因此，利用本文提出的模型能为编组站的精细化管理和车流组织优化提供决策参考.     

基于混合选择模型的汽车共享选择行为研究

为了深入分析出行者的汽车共享选择行为,首先以技术接受模型和计划行为理论为框架,将对汽车共享选择行为具有影响的心理因素整合到传统的离散选择模型之中,形成混合选择模型.然后,基于南京市的实证调查数据,运用混合选择模型对出行者的汽车共享选择行为进行研究.结果表明,出行者对于汽车共享的感知有用性、感知易用性、行为态度、知觉行为控制等心理态度潜变量对其选择行为产生显著的正向影响,混合选择模型比传统不带潜变量MNL模型对实证数据具有更高的拟合度.     

Recursive least squares algorithm for a nonlinear additive system with time delay

This paper proposes a recursive least squares algorithm for a nonlinear additive system with time delay. By the Weierstrass approximation theorem and the key term separation principle, the model can be simplified as an identification model. Based on the identification model, a recursive least squares identification algorithm is used to estimate all the unknown parameters of the time-delayed additive system. An example is provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

桩基建模方法对自升式钻井平台动力响应的影响

随着海洋油气开采作业水深的不断增加,海洋平台固有频率随之降低,易与相同频率成分的波浪产生共振,因此对平台动力响应特性研究是非常有必要的,而桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中发挥着关键作用。以某400英尺自升式钻井平台研究对象,基于等效建模的思想,分别建立了固支桩基、铰接桩基、线性弹簧桩基及非线性弹簧桩基四种有限元模型,并对其进行静力分析、模态分析及瞬态动力学分析,通过对比得到的振动频率、动力放大因子及波流惯性力,得出弹簧桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中的有效性及合理性结论。     

Incorporating the extended theory of planned behavior in a school travel mode choice model: a case study of Shaoxing,China

Travel to and from school can have social, economic, and environmental implications for students and their parents. Therefore, understanding school travel mode choice behavior is essential to find policy-oriented approaches to optimizing school travel mode share. Recent research suggests that psychological factors of parents play a significant role in school travel mode choice behavior and the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model has been used to test the effect of psychological constructs on mode choice behavior. However, little research has used a systematic framework of behavioral theory to organize these psychological factors and investigate their internal relationships. This paper proposes an extended theory of planned behavior (ETPB) to delve into the psychological factors caused by the effects of adults’ cognition and behavioral habits and explores the factors’ relationship paradigm. A theoretical framework of travel mode choice behavior for students in China is constructed. We established the MIMIC model that accommodates latent variables from ETPB. We found that not all the psychological latent variables have significant effects on school travel mode choice behavior, but habit can play an essential role. The results provide theoretical support for demand policies for school travel.     

临时车辆管制:企业物流路径重构风险和库存策略比较

大型活动举行期间,政府采取临时车辆管制来疏导交通流量。企业采取物流路径重构的应急措施,使原有供应链能够持续。设立了一个制造商,一个供应商,一个应急车辆转换点,建立(r,Q)库存模型。比较了物流路径中断前的原策略和物流路径重构后供应链协调策略的库存成本差异;比较了物流路径中断后供应链协调策略和非供应链协调策略库存成本差异,推导了最大成本损失比例。本文认为政府应对需要进行物流路径重构的企业提供补贴,或提供免费的应急点建设;企业应尽量采取供应链协调策略减少库存成本增加。     

基于两级温差发电的船舶废热回收试验研究

对于船舶柴油机而言,其所做功的30%都以废热的形式随尾气排放到了大气中。利用温差发电(TEG)技术回收船舶余热进行发电具有极其广阔的发展前景。因此提出了一种利用船舶柴油机尾气废热进行两级温差发电的新型装置。在对两级温差发电系统进行建模后,搭建了两级温差发电装置并进行了测试。理论分析和实验结果表明该装置利用温差发电技术对船舶余热回收是可行的。当热端温度达到473 K时,该温差发电实验装置可输出功率250 W,系统热效率为5.35％,相比单级TEG在相同条件下4.04％的热效率,该系统提高了32％。最后,对系统优化和装置的进一步改进进行了探讨。     

Effects of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative on the wine import logistics of China

China’s Belt and Road (BR) initiative is expected to facilitate international trade between the countries involved. In this study, we review the special requirements of wine logistics and the market growth potential of wine consumption in China. A model minimizing generalized logistical costs is developed and applied to wine imports in China, so that the best candidate cities in which to locate transport gateways and distribution centers can be identified. Our analysis suggests that the most preferred gateways are Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, which all have similar delivery costs. In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. For long-distance intercontinental transport of large volumes of wine, marine shipping remains the only viable delivery mode. However, wine distribution within China extensively uses air, road, and water transport. Therefore, cities with excellent multi-modal transport services are better positioned to become wine logistics gateways. Our study also highlights the importance of value-added services and good government support, which are important factors that influence distribution costs and quality.     

潜艇垂直发射导弹过程中的不确定因素对操纵控制的影响

潜艇在导弹垂直发射过程中所受的激变力十分复杂,包括导弹弹射出筒的发射反力、高压燃气溢出造成的负压区、导弹出筒与海水灌冲发射筒造成的失重与超重等.在实际发射过程中,这些激变力的大小及其时间特性都具有一定的随机性,因而成为在一定范围内变化的不确定因素.结合潜艇空间运动方程,建立潜艇垂直发射导弹过程的仿真模型,根据数值仿真计算结果,分析不确定因素对导弹发射及潜艇状态挽回控制过程的影响.     

Fe掺杂TiO2纳米粉体制备及光催化性能研究

为了探究煅烧温度和Fe离子掺杂浓度对TiO2纳米粉体晶体结构和光催化性能的影响,以TiCl4、NH4 OH、Fe(NO3)3·9H2 O为原料,采用共沉淀法成功制备了Fe掺杂TiO2纳米粒子,并通过XRD、UV-Vis等测试手段对样品进行了表征.结果表明:(1)TiO2纳米粉体的晶粒尺寸随煅烧温度升高而增大;(2)粉体的光催化效率随煅烧温度升高先增加后降低,450℃时达到最佳值,此时粉体为单一锐钛矿晶体结构;(3)Fe掺杂可抑制金红石型TiO2的形成,掺杂浓度应控制在合适范围内,当Fe掺杂浓度为0.1％时,TiO2光催化效率最高.