The Bathside Bay story

In this article the author considers whether an opportunity to develop harbour facilities at a strategically located site in Harwich Harbour on the east coast of England may have been missed in the 1960s and 1970s. The complications of divided ownership and powers to develop the site are explained; and successive attempts to obtain Government approval for harbour development under section 9 of the Harbours Act 1964 (since repealed) are described. The effective operation of that control in this case, influenced at one stage by political considerations, is questioned.     

Mechanisms for the control of transnational shipping corporations

The author presents a model of the conflicts that arise in the transnational shipping industry with special emphasis on control alternatives during entry into shipping operations. He concludes that, since transnational shipping is a non-zero sum game, gains can be created for world shipping as a whole.     

Research on short-term dynamic ice cases for dynamic analysis of ice-resistant jacket platform in the Bohai Gulf

Jacket platforms in the Bohai Gulf are often victims of random ice-induced vibrations. Their design originally did not account for dynamic ice loading on the jacket structures and significant ice-induced vibrations have been observed during winters. So it is urgent to find out as to how to consider the dynamic ice loading in the design stage of an ice-resistant jacket platform in the Bohai Gulf. In this paper, based on the state-of-art developments of dynamic ice load and ice–structure interaction, the authors proposed two different approaches to determine the short-term dynamic ice cases for dynamic analysis of ice-resistant jacket platform in the Bohai Gulf, named as the failure probability-based approach and the expected loss-based approach. Considering the variation of the ice environments and the variability of ice-resistant structure's properties, the random ice spectrum and the pseudo-excitation method (PEM) are employed to improve the efficiency of the procedure. Through finite element method (FEM) modeling of the real ice-resistant jacket platforms in the Bohai Gulf, such as MSW, MUQ and NW, the characteristics of the two proposed approaches have been investigated and compared. This paper provides an open and universal framework to assist designers and owners for determining the short-term dynamic ice cases in the Bohai Gulf, in which more information can be considered in the procedure to update and modify the results if available.     

The punctuality performance of aircraft rotations in a network of airports

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of aircraft turnaround performance at airports on the schedule punctuality of aircraft rotations in a network of airports. A mathematical model is applied, composed of two sub-models, namely the aircraft turnaround model (turnaround simulations) and the enroute model (enroute flight time simulations). A Markovian type model is featured in the aircraft turnaround model to simulate the operation of aircraft turnarounds at an airport by considering operational uncertainties and schedule punctuality variance. In addition, stochastic Monte Carlo simulations are employed to carry out stochastic sampling and simulations in both the aircraft turnaround model and the enroute model. Results of simulations show the robustness of the aircraft rotation model in capturing uncertainties from aircraft rotations. The propagation of knock-on delays in aircraft rotations is found to be significant when the short-connection-time policy is used by an airline at its hub airport. It is also found that the proper inclusion of schedule buffer time in the aircraft rotation schedule helps control the propagation of knock-on delays and, therefore, stabilize the punctuality performance of aircraft rotations.     

European advanced driver training programs: Reasons for optimism

Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers.Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curriculums. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention.This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.     

Public sector comparators for UK PFI roads: inside the black box

A public sector comparator (PSC) represents the hypothetical, risk-adjusted cost of a project—such as a road scheme—when that project is financed, owned and implemented by government. A PSC is commonly used in public procurement decision-making as a yardstick against which private investment proposals are evaluated. Using original material released by the UK Highways Agency for the first time, the author recreated the PSCs used for the evaluation of the first eight road projects to be promoted under the UK’s private finance initiative (PFI). Alternative assumptions regarding project risks were modelled using different levels of optimism-bias uplift, and the impact on value-for-money of using different discount rates was evaluated. Public sector comparators have attracted considerable attention in the literature as they retain a pivotal role in the policy decision to use—or not use—private finance. However the fact that their detail is usually kept confidential by public sector procuring agencies—because of commercial sensitivities—has restricted informed discussion and open debate. Now the architecture of these comparators is laid bare for critical examination. It has generally been assumed that any reduction in the discount rate used in PSC calculations will favour conventional procurement over PFI-type contracting arrangements. The research reported in this paper demonstrates that the relationship between the discount rate and the attractiveness of using private finance is not as simple as has been assumed, and the outcome in terms of value-for-money is not as predictable as has previously been reported.     

Strategic alliances in the container shipping industry: a global perspective

This paper examines developments in container shipping in light of the formation of strategic alliances by many of the leading companies. It focuses on three features: the transformation of services, the evolution of the fleet, and the adjustments made to the ports of call. These elements are analysed on a global basis for 3 years: 1989, 1994 and 1999. Some of the changes wrought by the alliances are identified, including the spread and intensification of services, and the deployment of the largest vessels on alliance routes. While the individual companies that have come together in alliances are serving many more ports than before, it is also demonstrated that the total number of ports served by the industry has remained constant. The results are interpreted in the context of globalization that is tending to impose greater standardization on the container shipping industry.     

A qualitative analysis of reintroducing cabotage onto New Zealand's coasts

This paper provides a qualitative analysis of the proposal to ‘reintroduce cabotage’ onto New Zealand's coasts. New Zealand's coastal shipping trade was opened up to international competition in 1995. The analysis is principally based on a stakeholder analysis of the 83 submissions received by the Shipping Industry Review team, as part of the Government's study to identify ways to increase participation in New Zealand's shipping industry. The stakeholders included New Zealand and international shipping companies, unions, industry associations, freight service providers, manufacturers and producers. The main conclusion drawn from the stakeholder analysis was that to reintroduce cabotage onto New Zealand's coasts would appear to have an overall net negative impact on the New Zealand economy at this stage. However, the Shipping Industry Review team ‘was divided on the implementation of cabotage’, and a force-field analysis was undertaken subsequently based on the author's stakeholder impact analysis and the Review team's list of pros and cons of reintroducing cabotage. This force-field analysis also supported the author's earlier conclusion. However, the almost ‘complete absence of statistics’ relating to the commercial activities of the shipping industry in New Zealand places severe limits on the analysis.     

Arterial travel time estimation based on vehicle re-identification using wireless magnetic sensors

A practical system is described for the real-time estimation of travel time across an arterial segment with multiple intersections. The system relies on matching vehicle signatures from wireless sensors. The sensors provide a noisy magnetic signature of a vehicle and the precise time when it crosses the sensors. A match (re-identification) of signatures at two locations gives the corresponding travel time of the vehicle. The travel times for all matched vehicles yield the travel time distribution. Matching results can be processed to provide other important arterial performance measures including capacity, volume/capacity ratio, queue lengths, and number of vehicles in the link. The matching algorithm is based on a statistical model of the signatures. The statistical model itself is estimated from the data, and does not require measurement of ‘ground truth’. The procedure does not require measurements of signal settings; in fact, signal settings can be inferred from the matched vehicle results. The procedure is tested on a 1.5 km (0.9 mile)-long segment of San Pablo Avenue in Albany, CA, under different traffic conditions. The segment is divided into three links: one link spans four intersections, and two links each span one intersection.