A statistical investigation of time-variant hull girder strength of aging ships and coating life

Risk- and reliability-based approaches are increasingly being applied in assisting inspection and maintenance planning. One of the keys to such approaches is properly predicting the hull girder strength (HG) of gradually degradated hull structures. The development has been limited by the lack of data on aging ships—validation of the developed methods has not been possible. To fill the gap of knowledge on hull strength of ships in service, this paper presents a database of as-gauged hull structures and a statistical study of the time-variant HG of tankers. The expanded data set was collected from 2195 as-gauged girth belts (transverse sections) of 211 single-hull tankers that were 12–32 years old. It was intended to (1) provide actual data on hull girder section modulus (HGSM) of tankers, (2) investigate the general trends of the change in the HG over ships’ service life, and (3) propose formulations for presenting time-variant HGSM and coating life.

The data set demonstrated a high variation of HGSM that changed over time. The mean value and standard deviation of HGSM loss were derived as functions of time. The probability density function (pdf) of coating life was also derived. Comparisons were made between previous studies on HG and the current data set. It was found that almost all previous studies showed much greater HG loss than what this database revealed. The refinement of existing calculations appears to be needed. The data set and statistical study were expected to form the basis for validating formulations of HG that are key components in risk- and reliability-based approaches.     

Prediction of steel plate deformation due to triangle heating using the inherent strain method

In a shipyard, line heating and triangle heating are two major processes carried out by skilled workers to form curved plates in various shapes under various heating conditions. There have been many studies on line heating, but triangle heating has rarely been studied owing to its complicated heating process with irregular multiheating paths and highly concentrated heat input. Triangle heating is the most labor-intensive job. Hence, it is essential for most shipyards to study the automation, as well as the improvement, of the triangle heating process in order to increase hull-forming productivity. In this study, a pioneering attempt to simulate triangle heating was made. A circular disk-spring model is proposed as an analysis model for the elastoplastic procedure of triangle heating, and the inherent strain method is also used to analyze the deformation of plates. The results of the simulation were compared with those of experiments and showed good agreement. It is shown that the present approach and the model used in this study are effective and efficient for simulating triangle heating for the steel plate forming process in shipbuilding.     

Dynamic stability in following seas: predictive and experimental approaches

This article presents work based on the development of a performance-based stability assessment method. It describes a numerical method used to determine the survival limit for a dynamic intact stability assessment procedure. The numerical method utilises a time-domain vessel motion program to assess the limit for a range of vertical centres of gravity (KG). The appropriateness of the numerical predictions was examined through comparison with model experiment results. Free-running model tests were conducted in regular following waves at discrete KGs. A comparison between the survival limits determined through the numerical and experimental methods is presented. The current International Maritime Organisation (IMO) stability criteria are also evaluated against the numerical and experimental dynamic performance-based stability assessment methods.     

Perception bias in route choice

Travel time is probably one of the most studied attributes in route choice. Recently, perception of travel time received more attention as several studies have shown its importance in explaining route choice behavior. In particular, travel time estimates by travelers appear to be biased against non-chosen options even if these are faster. In this paper, we study travel time perception and route choice of routes with different degrees of road hierarchy and directness. In the Dutch city of Enschede, respondents were asked to choose a route and provide their estimated travel times for both the preferred and alternative routes. These travel times were then compared with actual travel times. Results from previous studies were confirmed and expanded. The shortest time route was chosen in 41 % of the cases while the perceived shortest time route was chosen by almost 80 % of the respondents. Respondents overestimated travel time in general but overestimated the travel time of non-chosen routes more than the travel time of chosen routes. Perception of travel time depends on road hierarchy and route directness, as more direct routes and routes higher up in the hierarchy were perceived as being relatively fast. In addition, there is evidence that these attributes also influence route choice independently of perceived travel time. Finally, travel time perceptions appear to be most strongly biased against non-chosen options when respondents were familiar with the route or indicated a clear preference for the chosen routes. This result indicates that behavior will be more difficult to change for the regular travelers.     

Valuing Estuarine Resource Services Using Economic and Ecological Models: The Peconic Estuary System Study

This article summarizes four integrated economic studies undertaken to contribute to resource preservation and restoration decisions for the Peconic Estuary System of Suffolk County, NY. Completed as part of the National Estuary Program, the studies apply distinct resource valuation methods to a wide range of resource issues. The principal goals of this article are to highlight different methodologies that may be used to assess nonmarket economic values in a coastal management context, and characterize differences in the results that one may expect from each approach. We also emphasize potential relationships among values estimated by different nonmarket methodologies, and comment on the implications of these relationships for the interpretation and use of economic value estimates.     

Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.     

Addressing endogeneity in strategic urban mode choice models

Transportation - Endogeneity is a potential anomaly in econometric models, which may cause inconsistent parameter estimates. Transport models are prone to this problem and applications that...     

Logistics and supply chain management

In this paper an introduction to the principles and methods used in logistics and supply chain management is presented. It begins by a discussion on fundamentals and explains the relevant terms. Next policy and practice associated with logistics and freight services are regarded with a focus on the EU policy for the sector which greatly influences the development of logistics chains and services. Mathematical formulation of typical transport and logistics-related problems is also presented followed by a discussion on the concept of sustainability.