Deterring the dauntless—appraising the effects of naval deterrence against the Somali piracy

This article considers whether the Somali pirates were deterred by the naval task forces between the years 2009 and 2013. By disaggregating data and using previously unpublished records regarding the naval operations, two areas of operations are identified as potential periods of deterrence. The article uses a model of asymmetric deterrence to study the outcomes and equilibria of the navy-pirate interaction. It is found that the naval operations eventually did deter the Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden, but that this objective was not met in the Somali Basin. It is concluded that the operational focus on the Gulf of Aden coupled with the fact that the area is relatively smaller than the Somali Basin enabled the naval credibility, thus effectively denying the pirates access to the sea. Conversely, limited attention by the naval units and the long Somali southern coast with its open waters impeded naval control in the Somali Basin. In connection to these findings some conclusions regarding naval deterrence are discussed.     

Improving operational safety during icebreaker operations

The study presented in this paper aims at investigating what safety measures that can be taken to improve the operational safety during icebreaker operations in the Baltic Sea. During icebreaker operations, the icebreaker and the assisted vessel operate in close proximity to each other, a distance which can be even smaller if weather and ice conditions are severe. This poses a severe threat to the operation, since the extremely short distance between the vessels leaves no room for error. The results, which are based on data collected through individual interviews and questionnaires, indicate several possible improvements. Firstly, on a regulatory level, the introduction of an ice navigation certificate for deck officers would set a minimal level of formal competency. Secondly, on a knowledge level, more ice navigation training and better language skills work in favour for the safety. Thirdly, on a technical level, having an electronic chart with target tracking capability increases the efficiency and safety of the passage through ice. In addition to these results, this study shows a need to further research the communication and language situation during icebreaker operations.     

Appraising large-scale investments in a metropolitan transportation system

A package of large-scale investments in the transportation infrastructure in the Stockholm metropolitan region is currently being proposed. It contains new investments in the railway and subway systems as well as new links in the road system. This paper deals with the issue of appraising this kind of investment program. One major problem is the lack of a unique standard method, and it is argued that several tools should be used in a practical evaluation of large-scale investments in the transportation system.Four different approaches are presented and related to each other. First, one study uses a network-based mode-split/assignment model with a fixed trip matrix. The second study is complementary, as its aim is to also trace the impacts on the spatial distribution of population and jobs by applying an integrated transportation and land use model. Third, the long-run effects of the investments on regional economic growth are discussed within the framework of regional production functions. Fourth, an alternative approach is used, in which benefits from the investments are assessed through their estimated influence on aggregate land values.Abbreviations RA Reference Alternative - IP Investment Proposal - IMREL Integrated Model of Residential and Employment Location - RPFM Regional Production Function Model An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 31th European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Lisbon, August 1991.     

Travel experience matters: Expected personal mobility impacts after simulated L3/L4 automated driving

Transportation - Automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to change personal mobility in the near future. Most studies on the mobility impacts of AVs focus on fully automated (SAE L5) vehicles, but...     

A new instrument for sediment temperature measurements

A novel self-contained probe is presented which measures the sediment temperature of tidal flats between the surface and 40-cm depth, and indicates whether the flats are flooded or dry. Depending on the selected acquisition interval, the endurance of the probe is more than 6 months. It can be applied for the investigation of thermodynamic properties of the tidal flats impacting physical and biological processes. Intensive tests have shown that the probe is robust and reliable and can be easily operated by a single person. In case of rough weather conditions, the usage of scour protectors is recommended.     

Detection and Classification of Vehicles by Measurement of Road-Pavement Vibration and by Means of Supervised Machine Learning

Road vehicle detection and, to a lesser extent, classification have received considerable attention, in particular for the purpose of traffic monitoring by transportation authorities. A multitude of sensors and systems have been developed to assist people in traffic monitoring. Camera-based systems have enjoyed wide adoption over the last decade, partially substituting for more traditional techniques. Methods based on road-pavement vibration are not as common as camera-based systems. However, vibration sensors may be of interest when sensors must be out of sight and insensitive to environmental conditions, such as fog. We present and discuss our work on detection and classification of vehicles by measurement of road-pavement vibration and by means of supervised machine learning. We describe the entire processing chain from sensor data acquisition to vehicle classification and discuss our results for the task of vehicle detection and the task of vehicle classification separately. Using data for a single vibration sensor, our results show a performance ranging between 94% and near 100% for the detection task (1340 samples) and between 43% and 86% for the classification task (experiment specific, between 454 and 1243 samples).     

The influence of the material relation on the accuracy of collision simulations

The non-linear finite element method is widely used to simulate marine structures subjected to collisions. Furthermore, common to all non-linear finite element simulations is the need to implement the non-linear material behaviour including failure. However, the influence of the material relation on the accuracy of numerical results is not presented in detail in the present literature even though different material relations are used. Additionally, the material relation needs to include an appropriate criterion for treating the occurrence of fracture within the marine structure. Thereby, the crash resistance until inner hull failure should be predicted reliable and realistic. Therefore, this article seeks to describe the common choice of a material relation and compares this with a recent finite element-length dependent material relation based on optical measurements. As a result, this comparison gives an insight into the influence of the material relation on the accuracy of non-linear finite element simulations. Hence, this comparison can support the future use of an appropriate material relation for collision simulations.     

Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study

We present an approach to systematically analysing the vulnerability of road networks under disruptions covering extended areas. Since various kinds of events including floods, heavy snowfall, storms and wildfires can cause such spatially spread degradations, the analysis method is an important complement to the existing studies of single link failures. The methodology involves covering the study area with grids of uniformly shaped and sized cells, where each cell represents the extent of an event disrupting any intersecting links. We apply the approach to the Swedish road network using travel demand and network data from the Swedish national transport modelling system Sampers. The study shows that the impacts of area-covering disruptions are largely determined by the level of internal, outbound and inbound travel demand of the affected area itself. This is unlike single link failures, where the link flow and the redundancy in the surrounding network determine the impacts. As a result, the vulnerability to spatially spread events shows a markedly different geographical distribution. These findings, which should be universal for most road networks of similar scale, are important in the planning process of resource allocation for mitigation and recovery.     

The subjective measurement of seafarers’ fatigue levels and mental symptoms

Human error is the most important factor causing many ship accidents in maritime industry despite advanced technology and international regulations. Fatigue in seafarers is a well-known problem and a serious cause of ship accidents. There are many factors unique to the marine environment raising the potential for fatigue at sea. Due to the difficulties in measuring human fatigue and also in suggesting fatigue to be a root cause of accident, it is important to devise methods to detect and quantify the fatigue and mental symptoms. In this study, ‘Piper Fatigue Scale’ (PFS) has been used for measuring fatigue level and ‘Symptom Checklist 90- Revised’ (SCL-90-R) for detecting the severity of mental symptoms. Data analyses were performed using the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. According to the results of PFS analysis, a slight degree of fatigue is detected in all sub-dimensions of the scale. According to the results of SCL-90-R analysis, the distress of mental symptoms perceived by seafarers is not generally highly detected. In conclusion, the purpose of this study is to determine, by using subjective measurements, the fatigue level and mental symptoms among seafarers caused by working conditions on-board.     

Applying measures of modelling quality to a national time series: a benchmark for transport demand models

ABSTRACT

In current urban planning practice, macroscopic transport demand and assignment models are essential for the evaluation of mid- and long-term land use developments and infrastructure investments. The credibility of their projections strongly depends on their ability to reproduce present day traffic volumes. Obviously, a simplified model of reality will display some shortcomings, and the effect of these is asserted by quality measures that quantify the divergence from observed traffic volumes. There is, however, only rough guidance regarding acceptable ranges of these measures. Most of the literature on this subject approach these ranges from below, by discussing measures attained by operational models and using these as a benchmark, or by using the adverse effects of modelling errors to derive a minimum quality level. On the contrary, this study suggests upper limits for quality measures by analysing year-on-year variations in traffic volumes that result from changing land use and infrastructure.