Persuasive communication aimed at public transportation-oriented residential choice and the promotion of public transport

In this study, we developed a persuasive communication program to induce public-transport-oriented residential (PTOR) choice. We implemented an experiment that targeted students from the University of Tsukuba, Japan, who were in the process of changing their residential location. These students were randomly assigned to four groups: the first group was a control group; the second group received an information brochure about apartment flats typically used by students in Tsukuba city; the third group received a brochure identical to the one given to the second group, except that it also included information about the level of bus service for every flat; and the fourth group was provided with a leaflet that provided motivation for PTOR choice, in addition to the brochure used for the third group. The residential locations were investigated 5 months after the intervention. There was a significant difference between the control group and the third and fourth groups. The ratio of PTOR choice in the group with the information was twice as high as that for the control group. Furthermore, the persuasive message also increased PTOR choice. Additionally, the target groups’ frequency of bus use from home or the university was significantly high compared with the control group.     

Environmental factors which affect growth of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus, analyzed by a bioenergetics model coupled with a lower trophic ecosystem model

Bioenergetics model is applied to Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus. The temporal change of wet weight of common squid, which migrates in the Sea of Japan, is simulated. The time dependent horizontal distribution of prey is calculated a priori by 3-D coupled physical–biological model. The biological model NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) is used to simulate the lower-trophic ecosystem including three kinds of zooplankton biomass two of which is used as prey of common squid. A bioenergetics model reproduced appropriate growth curve of common squid, migrating in the North Pacific and the Sea of Japan. The results show that the wet weight of common squid in the northern Sea of Japan is heavier than that migrating in the central Sea of Japan, because prey density of the northern Sea of Japan is higher than that of the central Sea of Japan. We also investigate the wet weight anomaly for a global warming scenario. In this case, wet weight of common squid decreases because water temperature exceeds the optimum temperature for common squid. This result indicates that migration route and spawning area of common squid might change with global warming.     

Broaching prediction in the light of an enhanced mathematical model,with higher-order terms taken into account

 We have attempted to develop a more consistent mathematical model for capsizing associated with surf-riding in following and quartering waves by taking most of the second-order terms of the waves into account. The wave effects on the hull maneuvring coefficients were estimated, together with the hydrodynamic lift due to wave fluid velocity, and the change in added mass due to relative wave elevations. The wave effects on the hydrodynamic derivatives with respect to rudder angles were estimated by using the Mathematical Modelling Group (MMG) model. Then captive ship model experiments were conducted, and these showed reasonably good agreements between the experiments and the calculations for the wave effects on the hull and the rudder maneuvring forces. It was also found that the wave effects on restoring moments are much smaller than the Froude–Krylov prediction, and the minimum restoring arm appears on a wave downslope but not on a wave crest amidship. Thus, an experimental formula of the lift force due to the heel angle of the ship is provided for numerical modelling. Numerical simulations were then carried out with these second-order terms of waves, and the results were compared with the results of free-running model experiments. An improved prediction accuracy for ship motions in following and quartering seas was demonstrated. Although the boundaries of the ship motion modes were also obtained with both the original model and the present one, the second-order terms for waves are not so crucial for predicting the capsizing boundaries themselves. Received: June 20, 2002 / Accepted: October 10, 2002 Acknowledgments. This research was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (No. 13555270). The authors thank Prof. N. Rakhmanin of the Krylov Ship Research Institute for providing the Russian literature, as well as Mr. H. Murata of NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) for translating it into Japanese. Address correspondence to: N. Umeda (e-mail: umeda@naoe.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp)     

Dynamic stability in following seas: predictive and experimental approaches

This article presents work based on the development of a performance-based stability assessment method. It describes a numerical method used to determine the survival limit for a dynamic intact stability assessment procedure. The numerical method utilises a time-domain vessel motion program to assess the limit for a range of vertical centres of gravity (KG). The appropriateness of the numerical predictions was examined through comparison with model experiment results. Free-running model tests were conducted in regular following waves at discrete KGs. A comparison between the survival limits determined through the numerical and experimental methods is presented. The current International Maritime Organisation (IMO) stability criteria are also evaluated against the numerical and experimental dynamic performance-based stability assessment methods.     

Rules for aggregated satisfaction with work commutes

In general trips frequently entail several stages varying in mode, duration, and other factors. In some way travelers aggregate their satisfaction with the stages to satisfaction with the whole trip. In this paper we address the question of how this aggregation is made. We use data from a Swedish survey measuring satisfaction with commutes to and from work and with the stages of the commutes. We test several aggregation rules for their goodness of fit to the observations. Our results show that a normatively correct averaging rule that takes into account the relative durations of the stages out-perform heuristic aggregation rules such as the peak-end, summation, and equal-weight averaging rules. We note that this does not exclude that the heuristic aggregation rules apply to other trips than repetitive commute trips.     

Broaching probability for a ship in irregular stern-quartering waves: theoretical prediction and experimental validation

To avoid stability failure due to the broaching associated with surf riding, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has begun to develop multilayered intact stability criteria. A theoretical model using deterministic ship dynamics and stochastic wave theory is a candidate for the highest layer of this scheme. To complete the project, experimental validation of the theoretical method for estimating broaching probability in irregular waves is indispensable. We therefore conducted free-running model experiments using a typical twin-propeller and twin-rudder ship in irregular waves. A simulation model of coupled surge–sway–yaw–roll motion was simultaneously refined. The broaching probability calculated by the theoretical method was within the 95 % confidence interval of that obtained from the experimental data. This could be an example of experimental validation of the theoretical method for estimating the broaching probability when a ship meets a wave.     

The public's understanding of the functionality and limitations of automatic braking in Japan

Automated driving systems are increasingly widespread in the automotive industry. To operate automobiles that are assisted by such systems, drivers must correctly understand their functionality and limitations. Hence, focusing on the rapidly spreading technology of automated braking, this study seeks to clarify the general public's understanding of automatic braking systems. A total of 210 Japanese people responded to a questionnaire regarding how automatic brakes are operated, how they work, when they disengage, and so on. The proportion of those who misunderstood the operation of the system is not especially high, but there were a certain percentage of people who had misconceptions; e.g., some believed that automatic braking could detect pedestrians or bicycles. Moreover, respondents were under the impression that drivers cannot readily disengage automatic braking systems. If they mistakenly use the automatic brake, there is a possibility of posing a risk to the road transportation system.