Easing or tightening control strategies: determination of COVID-19 parameters for an agent-based model

Some agent-based models have been developed to estimate the spread progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to evaluate strategies aimed to control the outbreak of the infectious disease. Nonetheless, COVID-19 parameter estimation methods are limited to observational epidemiologic studies which are essentially aggregated models. We propose a mathematical structure to determine parameters of agent-based models accounting for the mutual effects of parameters. We then use the agent-based model to assess the extent to which different control strategies can intervene the transmission of COVID-19. Easing social distancing restrictions, opening businesses, speed of enforcing control strategies, quarantining family members of isolated cases on the disease progression and encouraging the use of facemask are the strategies assessed in this study. We estimate the social distancing compliance level in Sydney greater metropolitan area and then elaborate the consequences of moderating the compliance level in the disease suppression. We also show that social distancing and facemask usage are complementary and discuss their interactive effects in detail.

     

Performance analysis of crowd-shipping in urban and suburban areas

Transportation - Crowd logistics is a novel shipping concept where delivery operations are carried out by using existing resources, namely vehicle capacity and drivers from the crowd, thereby...     

Improving the coexistence of offshore wind farms and shipping: an international comparison of navigational risk assessment processes

The continued growth and evolution of the offshore wind industry, and the emergence of other novel marine uses such as wave and tidal generators, have upped the ante for spatial planners, as well as consenting and approval authorities in various coastal states. These stakeholders rely on processes such as navigational risk assessments (NRAs) to balance safety and efficiency requirements and to make optimal decisions over use of space. Given the increasingly complex and crowded seascape, however, there are some apprehensions about potential shortcomings in these NRA processes. There is also some concern that these inadequacies may lead to unsafe or inefficient marine spatial use. To understand how NRA processes can be improved further, a literature review is conducted, followed by a survey of respondents who are involved in the planning, consenting and/or approval of offshore wind farms across seven different countries. A summary of the NRA processes in these seven countries is presented, and several shortcomings are identified. Based on the findings of the survey, a list of recommendations is presented to enhance existing NRA processes—and to improve the coexistence of shipping and offshore wind farms (OWFs).     

Economic conditions for minibus usage in a multimodal feeder network

The introduction of minibuses into the transit fleets of some cities makes it more important than ever to investigate the economic and operating conditions of these vehicles for various transit and paratransit services. A high performance transit system is of great interest, owing to its desirable characteristics. However, it is not feasible to establish and use such a system all over a city. It is therefore necessary to support a high performance transit system with other modes to extend its area of operation (owing to higher demand) and also to connect those areas that are not covered by the high performance system to it. This paper considers the use of minibuses in the design of metro line feeders and to characterize the economic domain in which it is efficient to use them in a feeder network. Based on results from ant colony optimization, the performance measures of minibuses are compared with those of conventional buses to help make decision makers aware of the use and role of these vehicles. The study contradicts the common belief that, since minibuses require similar driver costs to those of conventional buses, it is not economical to use them in a transit fleet; in fact, it is shown that minibuses can displace conventional buses in some situations in a feeder network.     

Geometric stress distribution along the weld toe of the outer brace in two-planar tubular DKT-joints: Parametric study and deriving the SCF design equations

Regarding the research efforts expended so far on the calculation of stress concentration factors (SCFs) in tubular joints, two major shortcomings can be noted: (a) significant effort has been devoted to the study of SCFs in various uni-planar connections. Nevertheless, for multi-planar joints which cover the majority of practical applications, very few investigations have been reported due to the complexity and high cost involved; (b) majority of these research works focused on the study of SCFs at certain positions such as the saddle, crown toe, and crown heel, and they have ignored the hot-spot stress (HSS) at other positions along the weld toe. In the present paper, effects of dimensionless geometrical parameters on the SCF distribution along the weld toe of main (outer) braces in the axially loaded right-angle two-planar tubular DKT-joints are investigated. In order to study the multi-planar effect, SCF distribution in two-planar joints is compared with the distribution in a uni-planar joint having the same geometrical properties. A complete set of SCF database is constructed based on the two-planar DKT-joint Finite element models which are verified against experimental results and the predictions of Lloyd’s Register (LR) equations. The FE models cover a wide range of geometrical parameters. Six new SCF parametric formulae are developed through nonlinear regression analyses for the accurate and reliable fatigue design of two-planar DKT-joints under axial loads. An assessment study of these equations is conducted against the experimental data, the original FEM database and the acceptance criteria recommended by the UK Department of Energy.     

Marine Protected Area Management Effectiveness: Progress and Lessons in the Philippines

Quantifying progress in management of marine protected areas (MPAs) is crucial to marine conservation and fisheries management in the Philippines. This study compiles data on the status, occurrence, and management gaps of MPAs through coordination with multiple organizations supporting and guiding MPAs in the Philippines. MPA management effectiveness was measured using a MPA Rating System. Since 2002 the modal MPA rating levels increased from level 1 (initiated) to level 4 (sustained) in 2008/9. This upward trend is attributed to factors that promoted both the establishment and improved management of MPAs. Analysis indicated that: (1) most MPAs struggle with budgetary constraints or lack of sustainable financing and (2) overall the MPAs are being maintained and progressing with notable improvement in management despite a range of difficulties encountered during the implementation process. For MPAs in the Visayan Region for which biophysical data were available, the MPA Rating System was used to assess the effectiveness of local government capacity building on MPA coral reef health. Our results suggest that MPAs with higher ratings are likely to have better reef health conditions.     

Resistance analysis of a semi-SWATH design concept in shallow water

Resistance analysis is an important analytical method used to evaluate the hydrodynamic performance of High Speed Craft (HSC). Analysis of multihull resistance in shallow water is essential to the performance evaluation of any type of HSC. Ships operating in shallow water experience increases in resistance because of changes in pressure distribution and wave pattern. In this paper, the shallow water performance of an HSC design concept, the semi-Small Waterplane Area Twin Hull (semi-SWATH) form, is studied. The hull is installed with fin stabilizers to reduce dynamic motion effects, and the resistance components of the hull, hull trim condition, and maximum wave amplitude around the hull are determined via calm water resistance tests in shallow water. These criteria are important in analyzing semi-SWATH resistance in shallow water and its relation to flow around hull. The fore fin angle is fixed to zero degrees, while the aft fin angle is varied to 0°, 5°, 10°, and 15°. For each configuration, investigations are conducted with depth Froude numbers (Fr _H ) ranging from 0.65 to 1.2, and the resistance tests are performed in shallow water at the towing tank of UTM. Analysis results indicate that the resistance, wave pattern, and trim of the semi-SWATH hull form are affected by the fin angle. The resistance is amplified whereas the trim and sinkage are reduced as the fin angle increases. Increases in fin angle contribute to seakeeping and stability but affect the hull resistance of HSCs.     

Polycentricity and transit service

This paper focuses on the two related issues of employment distribution and access to transit services. Using the 2001 census tract level economic activities and transit routes within the county, a number of analyses were performed to determine the location of major employment centers in Los Angeles County and how these localities may be understood within the context of a transit service operation in a polycentric metropolitan area. The identified economic subcenters contain one-third of the county employment and its firms, collectively. While these economic nodes are networked by the existing bus routes, the connection between employees and their place of work appears to be inadequate. This has created a less than optimal condition in many sections of the metropolitan area. This paper suggests methodologies for encountering this shortcoming.