A decision analysis framework for intermodal transport: Comparing fuel price increases and the internalisation of external costs

This paper presents the impact of fuel price increases on the market area of intermodal transport terminals. Aim of this research is to determine whether an increase in fuel prices is sufficient enough to raise the market area of intermodal transport to the same degree that would be accomplished by stimulating intermodal transport through policy instruments. Therefore, several fuel price scenarios are analysed in order to verify the impact of different fuel price evolutions on the market area of unimodal road transport compared to intermodal transport in Belgium. The LAMBIT-model (Location Analysis for Belgian Intermodal Terminals), which is a GIS-based model (Macharis and Pekin, 2008), is used to analyse the different fuel price increases and enables a visualisation of the impact on the market area. The LAMBIT model incorporates the different network layers for each transport mode by setting up a GIS network that includes four different layers: the road network, the rail network, the inland waterways network and the final haulage network. The geographic locations of the intermodal terminals and the port of Antwerp are added as nodes in the network and the Belgian municipality centres are defined and connected to the different network layers. Based on the different fuel price scenarios representing respectively a fuel price increase with 10% (low price case), 50% (business as usual case) and 90% (high price case), the results of the LAMBIT model show that the market areas rise in favour of intermodal barge/road and intermodal rail/road. Depending on the scenario, the degree of modal shift however differs. Additionally, in order to compare policy measures with the effect of a fuel price increase, the internalisation of the external costs is analysed with the LAMBIT model. For some years, the European Commission is supporting the idea that transportation costs should reflect the true impacts on environment and society, and is relentlessly pushing towards the so called ‘internalisation of external costs’ as a policy instrument in order to establish fair and efficient pricing of different transport modes. This requires monetarizing the external effects of transport and adding them to the already internalized costs in order to give the correct price signals. Results of this comparative analysis performed with the LAMBIT model are also presented in this paper.     

Time series for sea water and seaweed of Tc and Sb originating from releases at La Hague

⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁵Sb have been released in low level liquid waste at the reprocessing plant at La Hague (Fr). Over a number of years data have been obtained on the concentration of ⁹⁹Tc in sea water and in seaweed from sampling locations close to and at increasing distances north and east of the point of release into the English Channel.In addition such data have been obtained on ¹²⁵Sb for a small number of sampling points. These time series, and the information derived from their intercomparison and from comparison with the release data, are presented in this paper.Time series on ⁹⁹Tc as well as ¹²⁵Sb in sea water and seaweed clearly confirm a considerable decrease in release rates at La Hague over the years 1986–1993. Transit times and transfer factors derived from the series are generally in good agreement with the results of modelling efforts. The data do not provide evidence for a time lag between levels of the radionuclides in sea water and those in seaweed longer than a few months.The very high concentration factors for ⁹⁹Tc in brown seaweeds make these seaweeds very useful for environmental monitoring the radionuclide at low release rates and to trace releases in areas remote from the point of release.     

The effect of resuspension on chemical exchanges at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea — A modelling and natural radiotracer approach

We review the processes responsible for the formation of vertical gradients in the chemical composition of suspended particles across the benthic nepheloid layer. Such gradients have usually explained by resuspension of surface sediments, but it is shown here that these gradients can only be understood as part of a dynamic exchange between the water column and the sediments. A coupled model, developed in a companion paper, is expanded to include chemical reactions above and below the sediment-water interface. Three cases are discussed: A tracer with first-order decay (Model 1), the dissolution of a major constituent (Model 2), and a particle-reactive tracer with first-order decay and production in the water column (Model 3). Using typical parameter values for a well-developed benthic nepheloid layer, the three models reproduce typical distributions of C_org (organic carbon), opal, and ²³⁴Th, respectively, on particles above and below the sediment-water interface. Sensitivity analyses illustrate how bioturbation can cause the large discrepancy observed between suspended and surface sediment C_org values (Model 1). The model also reconciles this observed discrepancy with observations that the major part of the decomposition takes place within the sediment. For opal (Model 2), the influence of resuspension on the burial rate of opal is shown to be negligible, as long as dissolution follows first-order kinetics and is not enhanced by turbulence in the suspended phase. The modelling of ²³⁴Th (Model 3) successfully links the depletion of ²³⁴Th in bottom waters with the distribution of excess ²³⁴Th in surface sediments and on resuspended particles.²³⁴Th is a powerful example of the tools supplied by the radioactive daughters of the natural U and Th decay series in studying fluxes and exchange rates of solutes and particles across the sediment-water interface. A short review is given of these tools, and it is shown how they can be used to obtain rate information required to apply and calibrate specific resuspension models.     

Managing Traffic by Privatization of Road Capacity: A Property Rights Approach

Abstract

Road congestion remains a serious problem, despite all the efforts to limit road use and to manage growing road traffic volumes. Economic approaches (such as pricing) are introduced based on traditional welfare economic theory. Although they are sometimes very successful, the magnitude of traffic issues also requires alternative and unconventional approaches. Perhaps a more innovative perspective is needed. The paper discusses an alternative economic approach starting from property rights theory. It is translated in transport systems in concepts of infrastructure capacity slot management, where slots are dynamically priced and exclusively allocated to individual users. Debates and practices regarding this approach in air traffic and rail traffic are further developed than in the field of road traffic. The paper aims to explore the potential benefits and disadvantages of the property rights approach for road traffic. Attention is paid to major institutional and technical conditions. The conclusion is that the approach theoretically has clear advantages and seems technologically feasible. Nevertheless, serious political and institutional issues have to be solved first.     

驾驶模拟在公路安全设计与运行中运用的研究

随着日益增长的交通需求,为了能够获得最高性能的公路交通系统,驾驶任务变得越来越复杂,公路设计和建设中考虑人的因素也变得更为重要.能否成功引进新的驾驶支持体系、动态的交通管理系统或者复杂的道路设计,主要依赖于人们是否能够以及有多大意愿去适应这种发展.为此需要了解人们在复杂的动态驾驶任务环境中将会做出怎样的反应.该文在简单地介绍完TNO驾驶模拟器设备后,又介绍了有关利用先进的人机互动驾驶模拟器研究人的驾驶行为来进行公路设计和建设.文中通过几个公路设计和交通运输行为研究的例子,说明了驾驶模拟器研究对安全有效地进行公路设计与运行运用具有特殊的价值.     

Valuing cargo flexibility in oil transportation

The seaborne oil transportation market is served by two main types of vessels—crude oil tankers and product tankers. Product tankers are designed to move refined oil products, yet they can also opportunistically carry ‘dirty’ products such as crude and heavy fuel oil, subject to the cost of tank cleaning when re-entering the clean products trade. We apply an entry-exit real option model with a stochastic freight rate differential to derive optimal triggers for switching between the two cargo types and estimate the value of the switching option. We show that the value of active switching has grown over time, and generally exceeds the additional construction cost of a product tanker. Our findings are important both from a practical point of view and for our understanding of market integration in the tanker freight market. Specifically, shipowners can use our model as a basis for optimizing chartering policy for clean product tankers. We also show that there are periods where the dirty market is persistently stronger, and discuss the possible reasons for such apparent inefficiencies.     

Elderly travel frequencies and transport mode choices in Greater Rotterdam,the Netherlands

Demographic ageing is a key societal challenge in Europe as well as in many other western and non-western societies. A crucial dimension concerns elderly daily mobility patterns. While still partaking fewer and shorter trips than younger generations, today’s elderly have been found increasingly (auto)mobile. Although the elderly benefit from the independence, freedom of movement, and social inclusion, concerns may rise regarding the environmental and accessibility impacts of this induced mobility. The present study adds to the expanding literature on elderly mobility, an integrated analysis of the effects of socio-demographic, health, trip, spatial and weather attributes on elderly mobility. Utilizing travel diary data for Greater Rotterdam, The Netherlands, trip frequencies and transport mode choices of the elderly are analysed by means of zero-inflated negative binomial models as well as multinomial logit regression models, and contrasted to the non-elderly subpopulation to explore (dis)similarities. While the results show common determinants, the models also highlight important differences in the magnitude of the estimated coefficients and factors only influencing transport patterns for the elderly. Embedded in the context of an aging population, the empirical findings assist policy-makers and planners in several respects: For transportation plans and programs it is critical to recognize mobility needs of the elderly. As the seniors are becoming increasingly automobile, the results call for strategies to encourage older people to use more physically active and environmentally friendly transport modes such as public transport, walking and cycling.     

Involvement in clubs or voluntary associations, social networks and activity generation: a path analysis

Leisure activities have received increasing attention from travel behavior researchers over the past decade. However, these activities are often treated as a single category, neglecting their differences. Whereas most leisure activities are flexible, club activities are usually scheduled longer in advance and are more fixed in time, location and company. Hence, trip-generating properties of club activities are likely to differ from those of other leisure activities. As very little is known about involvement in clubs or voluntary associations in relation to trip generation, voluntary association activities deserve further research in relation to travel. Therefore, in this paper a path analysis is conducted, analyzing the relationships between participation in clubs or voluntary associations, trip frequencies, and social network characteristics. The analyses are based on data collected in 2011 in Eindhoven in the Netherlands in a survey among 516 respondents. The results show interesting relationships between the social context and involvement in clubs. They indicate that people become club members through their social networks, and frequent club activities increase social network size. Family oriented people were found to go less often to clubs. Club membership and the frequency of going to club activities were also found to be affected by socio-demographics, such as gender, age, education, work, presence of young children in the household and owning a season ticket for public transport.