Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

Do Public Transport Improvements Increase Agglomeration Economies? A Review of Literature and an Agenda for Research

Public transport improvements may increase economic productivity if they enable the growth and densification of cities, downtowns, or industrial clusters and thereby increase external agglomeration economies. It has been argued that the potential agglomeration benefits are large; if so, understanding them better would be useful in making funding decisions about public transport improvements. We reviewed theoretical and empirical literature on agglomeration as well as a small number of articles on transportation's role in agglomeration. The theoretical literature is useful in understanding possible avenues by which transportation improvements might affect agglomeration, although there is little discussion of public transport specifically. Relevant empirical studies tend to focus on metropolitan regions and use a generalized measure of transportation cost. But public transport impacts on agglomeration are likely to be different from road investment impacts. We identified several ways of conducting research building on this literature that would help evaluate the agglomeration impacts of public transport proposals: tracing the links between transport, agglomeration, and productivity; better motivating research using theories of agglomeration mechanisms; taking scale and redistribution into account; exploring the functional form of agglomeration economies; accounting for endogeneity in model structure; and considering development context.     

Risk aversion,regret aversion and travel choice inertia: an experimental study

This paper presents the results of an experimental study into the role of risk aversion and regret aversion as codeterminants of travel choice inertia. Theoretical results published by Chorus and Dellaert are tested empirically. More specifically, the expectation is tested that when (1) travelers are risk averse, (2) the quality of travel choices is uncertain, and (3) the quality is partially revealed upon usage, travel choice inertia emerges as a learning-based lock-in effect. In addition, this paper studies the role of regret aversion as a possible trigger of travel choice inertia. Analyses are based on data collected in an experiment, where the reward that participants obtain is a function of the outcome of choices they make. Empirical results suggest that the learning-based lock-in effect indeed plays a role in the context of our data. The evidence for the hypothesis that regret aversion triggers inertia is mixed at best.     

Updating predictive accident models of modern rural single carriageway A-roads

Abstract

Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks, and yet the models most commonly used in the UK were derived using data collected 20 to 30 years ago. Given that the national personal injury accident total fell by some 30% in the last 25 years, while road traffic increased by over 60%, significant errors in scheme appraisal and evaluation based on the models currently in use seem inevitable. In this paper, the temporal transferability of PAMs for modern rural single carriageway A-roads is investigated, and their predictive performance is evaluated against a recent data set. Despite the age of these models, the PAMs for predicting the total accidents provide a remarkably good fit to recent data and these are more accurate than models where accidents are disaggregated by type. The performance of the models can be improved by calibrating them against recent data.     

Restructuring the Greek Railways: Current Progress and Evaluation of Alternative Schemes

Abstract

This paper presents the rationale, the method, and the alternative choices in the process of restructuring the Hellenic Railways Organisation (OSE). The most likely alternative structures regarding ownership and management issues of the new entities that will inherit the old OSE organization, and discusses the strategic implications of these alternatives are discussed. A critical view of the process of Greek railway reform and the evaluation results of the alternative organizational structures for the new situation are presented. It first presents the current experience in European Union and other countries of Europe, and the relative position of the Greek railways vis‐à‐vis the most common practices. The most likely options for the new organizational structure are presented which will result from the application of the European Union Directives and the Greek Law 2671/98 for the reorganization of the Greek railways. Based on a more detailed presentation of expected income and expenditures (i.e. economic viability) of the alternatives, a structure and a roadmap to these reforms is recommended for a successful and, above all ‘implementable’, reform of the Greek railways under the current conditions. Finally, the process for change and restructuring is described in terms of the basic principles and procedures that should be followed, and in terms of the necessary steps and procedures for the transition from the current to the new situation.     

Use and Effects of Advanced Traveller Information Services (ATIS): A Review of the Literature

Abstract

Rapid technological developments in the field of personal communication services probe visions of a next generation in Advanced Traveller Information Services (ATIS). These technological developments provoke a renewed interest in the use and effect of such next‐generation ATIS among academia as well as practitioners. To understand better the potential use and effects of such next‐generation ATIS, a thorough review is warranted of contemporary conceptual ideas and empirical findings on the use of travel information (services) and their effects on travellers’ choices. This paper presents such a review and integrates behavioural determinants such as the role of decision strategies with manifest determinants such as trip contexts and socio‐economic variables into a coherent framework of information acquisition and its effect on travellers’ perceptions.     

Bus Transit Service Reliability and Improvement Strategies: Integrating the Perspectives of Passengers and Transit Agencies in North America

Abstract

Transit agencies are consistently trying to improve service reliability and attract new passengers by employing various strategies. Previous literature reviews have focused on either passengers' or transit agencies' perspectives on service reliability. However, none of the earlier reviews have simultaneously addressed these differing perspectives on service reliability in an integrated manner. In response to this gap in the literature, this paper first reviews previous work on passengers' perspectives of transit service reliability and their response to service adjustments made by different agencies. Second, it analyzes transit agencies' plans and reports regarding their reliability goals and used strategies in order to improve service reliability, while looking at the impacts of these strategies on service. Reviewing these two parts together provides a needed contribution to the literature from a practical viewpoint since it allows for the identification of gaps in the public transit planning and operations field in the area of reliability and provides transit planners and decision makers with effective and valuable policy-relevant information.     

Energy efficiency optimization of electric vehicle driven by in-wheel motors

Electric vehicle is considered to be the solution for energy and environment crisis, but it’s still not competitive enough with conventional vehicles because of the limited energy density and high cost of the power battery. So the energy efficiency is of the most importance for the control of electric vehicles. This paper looks into the energy efficiency optimization problem of electric vehicle driven by four in-wheel motors by developing a comprehensive energy efficiency model of the permanent magnet synchronous motor including the inverter. The calculated efficiency agrees with the measured data quite well. Based on the power loss analysis, the conclusion is drawn that in all driving or braking conditions the total torque requirement should be distributed evenly to all the motors in order to maximize the energy efficiency for electric vehicles driven by permanent magnet synchronous in-wheel motors. Vehicle test results show that the energy efficiency of the evenly distributed torque control is higher than the control strategy proposed by control allocation in literature.     

Robust design optimization of suspension system considering steering pull reduction

This paper presents robust design optimization method to reduce steering pull phenomenon. One of the biggest causes of steering pull phenomenon is tolerance of suspension system such as hard point, spring, damper and bush. Therefore, the relationship between suspension systems and steering pull phenomenon has as nonlinear characteristics. But, it can be very difficult to evaluate the analytical design sensitivity. Thus, it is impossible to directly apply a well-developed optimization algorithm based on gradient information. To avoid these difficulty, this study uses sequential approximation optimization process based on a meta-model. The robust design process has 28 random design variables with tolerance. For efficient design process, the sample variances for the design goals are approximated from meta-models. The proposed approach required only 62 evaluations until it converged. Optimal design reduced the drift by 80% and its deviation by 38.7%, respectively. This result proves that the suggested design method of suspension system is effective and useful.     

Objective evaluation of door-closing sound quality based on physiological acoustics

This paper presents a new method to objectively quantify the sound quality of doors closing in premium passenger cars. In previous works, psychoacoustic parameters have been used for objective quantification. However, these parameters do not agree well with subsequent subjective assessments. Therefore, the correlation between the psychoacoustic parameters and the subjective rating of door closing sounds in sampled cars is low, and it is not sufficient to use psychoacoustic parameters as an objective metric to quantify the quality of door-closing sounds. In this paper, a new method is proposed to objectively quantify the sound quality based on physiological acoustics and statistical signal processing. A gammatone filter is used as a pre-processing method in models of the auditory system and kurtosis, which is the fourth-order moment of the temporal signal and is used to extract quantitative information about the quality of door-closing sounds. The new metric obtained from the proposed method is highly correlated to subjective ratings and has been successfully applied to the quantification of door-closing sound quality.