Effect of traffic information on commuters' propensity to change route and departure time

Considerable public and private resources are devoted to the collection and dissemination of real-time traffic information in the Chicago area. Such information is intended to help individuals make more informed travel decisions, yet its effect on behavior remains largely unexplored. This study evaluates the effect of traffic information on travelers' route and departure time changes and provides a stronger basis for developing advanced information systems. Downtown Chicago automobile commuters were surveyed during the AM peak period. The results indicate that a majority of the respondents access, use and respond to information. For example, individuals use travel information to reduce their anxiety—even if they do not change travel decisions; this indicates that information may have “intrinsic” value. That is, simply knowing traffic conditions is valued by travelers. More than 60% of the respondents had used traffic information to modify their travel decisions. Multivariate analysis using the ordered probit model showed that individuals were more likely to use traffic reports for their route changes if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and timely, and frequently listened to traffic reports. Respondents were more likely to change their departure times if they perceived traffic reports to be accurate and relevant, and frequently listened to traffic reports. The implication for Advanced Traveler Information Systems are that they may be designed to support both enroute and pre-trip decisions. ATIS performance, measured in terms of accuracy, relevance and timeliness would be critical in the success of such systems. Further, near-term prediction of traffic conditions on congested and unreliable routes (where conditions change rapidly) and incident durations is desirable.     

核废料的处理 分离嬗变可以缩短核废料的毒性期

核能在全欧洲能源供应方面居功甚伟。在欧盟25个成员国中，13个国家共有148座核反应堆，产生的总电力达到125GWh，每年可生产电力850TWh，占欧盟总电力需求的35%.     

State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead

In this paper we review freight forecasting models and current advances and needs with respect to data and model development. We then present a case study to suggest which models should be developed for the State of California in the US. We suggest several alternatives including an aggregate commodity flow model, a disaggregate regional logistics model and a hybrid regional logistics model with a truck touring model. We point out however, that the data requirements for the latter model would be extensive. In addition, the development of hybrid models, for example progress in the integration of regional logistics models with urban truck touring models, will introduce new problems such as reconciling the outputs of multiple models for consistency.     

The changing economic impacts of the port of New York

This paper investigates the economic effects of maritime trade through the Port of New York on the New York metropolitan region. It decomposes the impacts associated with the trans-shipment of waterborne exports and imports in 1977 and 1987 into those arising from the changing tonnage of trade and those attributable to the changing commodity mix. Input-output analysis is used to calculate the numbers of jobs, personal and business incomes, and output which arise from each effect. Finally, it examines the impacts on specfic industries and occupations in the region.     

Small city waterfront restoration

Abstract

Redesign and reuse of waterfronts are a common experience today. Small cities presented with a deteriorating waterfront are faced with formidable economic and institutional impediments to their efforts to reverse the decline. This paper presents some design principles that if followed provide a framework for developing restoration plans. It also describes the efforts of the California State Coastal Conservancy to apply these principles to assist three small cities along California's coast to revitalize their waterfronts. Their experience indicates that in an era of limited budgets waterfront redevelopment can occur with substantial economic benefit where limited funds are applied to often small but crucial elements that result in creating waterside amenities.     

Where do cyclists ride? A route choice model developed with revealed preference GPS data

To better understand bicyclists’ preferences for facility types, GPS units were used to observe the behavior of 164 cyclists in Portland, Oregon, USA for several days each. Trip purpose and several other trip-level variables recorded by the cyclists, and the resulting trips were coded to a highly detailed bicycle network. The authors used the 1449 non-exercise, utilitarian trips to estimate a bicycle route choice model. The model used a choice set generation algorithm based on multiple permutations of path attributes and was formulated to account for overlapping route alternatives. The findings suggest that cyclists are sensitive to the effects of distance, turn frequency, slope, intersection control (e.g. presence or absence of traffic signals), and traffic volumes. In addition, cyclists appear to place relatively high value on off-street bike paths, enhanced neighborhood bikeways with traffic calming features (aka “bicycle boulevards”), and bridge facilities. Bike lanes more or less exactly offset the negative effects of adjacent traffic, but were no more or less attractive than a basic low traffic volume street. Finally, route preferences differ between commute and other utilitarian trips; cyclists were more sensitive to distance and less sensitive to other infrastructure characteristics for commute trips.     

A dynamic traffic assignment model for the assessment of moving bottlenecks

Moving bottlenecks in highway traffic are defined as a situation in which a slow-moving vehicle, be it a truck hauling heavy equipment or an oversized vehicle, or a long convey, disrupts the continuous flow of the general traffic. The effect of moving bottlenecks on traffic flow is an important factor in the evaluation of network performance. This effect, though, cannot be assessed properly by existing transportation tools, especially when the bottleneck travels relatively long distances in the network.This paper develops a dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model that can evaluate the effects of moving bottlenecks on network performance in terms of both travel times and traveling paths. The model assumes that the characteristics of the moving bottleneck, such as traveling path, physical dimensions, and desired speed, are predefined and, therefore, suitable for planned conveys.The DTA model is based on a mesoscopic simulation network-loading procedure with unique features that allow assessing the special dynamic characteristics of a moving bottleneck. By permitting traffic density and speed to vary along a link, the simulation can capture the queue caused by the moving bottleneck while preserving the causality principles of traffic dynamics.     

Driver recruitability for advanced traveler information system experiments

A number of Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) field experiments are being undertaken to study the effectiveness of the ATIS concept in ameliorating traffic congestion and reducing delays. Many of these experiments require the participation of private drivers willing to allow in-vehicle navigation units to be installed in their vehicles over an extended period of time. A critical part of any ATIS field experiment is the selection or recruitment of private drivers to fulfill the multi-purpose participation needs of the ATIS experiment. To provide an informed basis for designing such a driver recruitment effort, it is important to understand the factors affecting driver recruitability or “willingness to participate.” This research presents the results of a quantitative analysis of driver recruitability conducted to aid in the design of recruitment procedures for ADVANCE (Advanced Driver and Vehicle Advisory Navigation Concept), the largest ATIS field experiment of its kind. The approach used a telephone survey to assess driver willingness to participate in the ADVANCE field experiment and to explore variations in that willingness among different drivers and across characteristics of the ADVANCE system and experimental design. The results indicate that the willingness to participate in the ADVANCE field test is greater for men, persons who hold executive or managerial occupations, individuals who drive extensively, persons who use electronic devices such as personal computers and car phones regularly, and persons who have positive beliefs regarding the usefulness of the ADVANCE concept. The result also suggest that drivers' willingness to participate is not strongly affected by monitoring/reporting requirements such as responding to surveys, mailing electronically stored records of system operation, and periodic service requirements. However, the willingness decreases considerably if drivers have to bear the financial responsibility for damage of the navigation equipment and any equipment-caused electrical failures to the car. Finally, the incentive of a lottery prize raises the level of participation willingness. These results have important implications for the recruitment effort, both in terms of recruiting drivers for participation in the demonstration and specifying the operational details of the field test.     

Direct to your destination: the size,scope and competitive status of express coach carriers in the United States

The advent of express coach bus lines offering guaranteed seating and emphasizing curbside pickup and drop-off is contributing to a revival in intercity bus travel in the United States. Relatively little is known, however, about the scale and geographic scope of these carriers or the competitive landscape in which they operate. To fill this void, this study evaluates the service networks operated by the two largest express coach operators in the country, BoltBus and Megabus, and evaluates a data set of 4775 fares sold on megabus.com. The results show that these carriers cumulatively serve 127 intercity segments and operate about 52.9 million bus miles per year. Together, these carriers have grown to about one third of the size of Amtrak, with Megabus and BoltBus providing 3.3 billion and .69 billion seat miles of service, respectively, compared to Amtrak’s 12.8 billion. With respect to the types of routes it serves and the competition it faces, Megabus has evolved into a carrier quite different than Boltbus; more than one third of Megabus’ bus miles are operated on segments without Amtrak service, while virtually all of BoltBus’ miles face this competition. The analysis of Megabus’ pricing shows that fares rise modestly within 2 weeks of departure, while the per-mile costs are much less ($.08/mile) for 300–399 mile trips than for those 50–99 miles ($.22/mile). Nevertheless, the dispersion of fares tends to fall as the departure date nears, regardless of distance. Together, these prominent bus lines serve 66 of the 100 most heavily traveled U.S. city pairs that have characteristics suitable for intercity bus service—which is more than Amtrak. With further growth on the horizon, planners, federal regulators, and researchers should collaborate on establishing reporting requirements for this expanding sector.

     

Development of a neighborhood commute mode share model using nationally-available data

Transportation - Practitioners often use demand models to predict how neighborhood-level land use, infrastructure, demographic, and other changes may impact transportation systems. Few of the...