Model uncertainty and the management of a system of infrastructure facilities

The network-level infrastructure management problem involves selecting and scheduling maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities on networks of infrastructure facilities so as to maintain the level of service provided by the network in a cost-effective manner. This problem is frequently formulated as a Markov decision problem (MDP) solved via linear programming (LP). The conditions of facilities are represented by elements of discrete condition rating sets, and transition probabilities are employed to describe deterioration processes. Epistemic and parametric uncertainties not considered within the standard MDP/LP framework are associated with the transition probabilities used in infrastructure management optimization routines. This paper contrasts the expected costs incurred when model uncertainty is ignored with those incurred when this uncertainty is explicitly considered using robust optimization. A case study involving a network-level pavement management MDP/LP problem demonstrates how explicitly considering uncertainty may limit worst-case MR&R expenditures. The methods and results can also be used to identify the costs of uncertainty in transition probability matrices used in infrastructure management systems.     

EFFECT OF CO－SUPPLEMENTATION OF VITAMIN E AND SELENIUM ON NORMAL AND MALIGNANT CELL PROLIFERATION

ＥＦＦＥＣＴＯＦＣＯ－ＳＵＰＰＬＥＭＥＮＴＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＶＩＴＡＭＩＮＥＡＮＤＳＥＬＥＮＩＵＭＯＮＮＯＲＭＡＬＡＮＤＭＡＬＩＧＮＡＮＴＣＥＬＬＰＲＯＬＩＦＥＲＡＴＩＯＮＨｕＷｅｎｌｉａｎｇ；ＬｉｕＬｉｈｕａ；ＡｎｔｈｏｎｙＴＤｉｐｌｏｃｋ．（Ｄｅｐａ...     

Recent directions in automobile demand modeling

We identify seven areas in which recent research on auto demand has made significant progress. We discuss the importance of these areas in understanding and predicting auto demand and describe the methods that researchers have used to address them. Finally, we identify the issues that this research indicates require further investigation.     

The federal rail transit policy: Rhetoric or reality?

Almost two years ago the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a formal statement of policy on rail transit. The aim of the policy was to articulate more clearly some of the basic principles and philosophy which would guide Federal participation in urban rail transit investment. The paper examines the principal tenets of the policy and assesses its influence on local rail transit development.     

A multi‐class mean‐excess traffic equilibrium model with elastic demand

Recent empirical studies have revealed that travel time variability plays an important role in travelers' route choice decisions. To simultaneously account for both reliability and unreliability aspects of travel time variability, the concept of mean‐excess travel time (METT) was recently proposed as a new risk‐averse route choice criterion. In this paper, we extend the mean‐excess traffic equilibrium model to include heterogeneous risk‐aversion attitudes and elastic demand. Specifically, this model explicitly considers (1) multiple user classes with different risk‐aversions toward travel time variability when making route choice decisions under uncertainty and (2) the elasticity of travel demand as a function of METT when making travel choice decisions under uncertainty. This model is thus capable of modeling travelers' heterogeneous risk‐averse behaviors with both travel choice and route choice considerations. The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a route‐based algorithm using the modified alternating direction method. Numerical analyses are also provided to illustrate the features of the proposed model and the applicability of the solution algorithm. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Port and terminal selection by deep-sea container operators

This paper deals with the importance of port choice and container terminal selection for deep-sea container carriers. The paper focuses on the research question: on what basis do deep-sea container operators select container ports (strategy) and container terminals (financial reasons) in the Hamburg–Le Havre range over others? In answering this research question, three dimensions are addressed in detail: the buying decision characteristics; port choice strategy; and terminal selection. The results show that strategic considerations at company level are important. For port choice the most important criteria from a carrier's perspective are: availability of hinterland connections; reasonable tariffs; and immediacy of consumers (large hinterland). In addition to these criteria, shipping lines attach great value to often neglected factors, such as feeder connectivity, environmental issues and the total portfolio of the port. The study reveals that port selection and terminal selection are not the same with terminal selection criteria mainly depending on: handling speed; handling costs; reliability; and hinterland connections. The analysis also brought forward that the decision making is different per container carrier, per trade and per port type, implying that a one size fits all approach is not relevant.     

The potential role of public–private partnerships in the upgrade of port infrastructure: normative and positive considerations

There is a broad consensus on the need for the major expansion of many ports. Traditionally, ports and related facilities have involved significant levels of direct or indirect government ownership or some degree of government financing. Most governments, however, are reluctant to either borrow money to fund the needed additional capital infrastructure or to fund it directly. Public–private partnerships (P3s) are thus an attractive potential option. But are they the answer? This article examines the normative rationales for P3s and presents a positive theory perspective that focuses on the conflicting goals of public and private partners. It argues that the major government impetus for P3s is likely to be for physical port infrastructure with moderate levels of market failure, such as small to medium sized ports, and not for intangible port activities. Furthermore, small to medium sized port P3s are likely to be successful in terms of having relatively low transaction costs and lower total social costs than alternative provision mechanisms. Nonetheless, even in this situation, the different goals of public and private partners may give rise to conflict. Drawing on the global empirical evidence on P3s, this article proposes some institutional design features that will help to ensure P3 success.     

Transport Network Design Problem under Uncertainty: A Review and New Developments

This paper aims to provide a state-of-the-art review of the transport network design problem (NDP) under uncertainty and to present some new developments on a bi-objective-reliable NDP (BORNDP) model that explicitly optimizes the capacity reliability and travel time reliability under demand uncertainty. Both are useful performance measures that can describe the supply-side reliability and demand-side reliability of a road network. A simulation-based multi-objective genetic algorithm solution procedure, which consists of a traffic assignment algorithm, a genetic algorithm, a Pareto filter, and a Monte-Carlo simulation, is developed to solve the proposed BORNDP model. A numerical example based on the capacity enhancement problem is presented to demonstrate the tradeoff between capacity reliability and travel time reliability in the NDP.