Accommodating perceptual conditioning in the valuation of expected travel time savings for cars and public transport

Travel time variability (i.e., random variations in travel time) leads to a travel time distribution for a repeated trip from a fixed origin to destination (e.g., from home to work). To represent travel time variability, a series of possible travel times per alternative (departure time, route or mode) are often used in stated choice experiments. In the traditional models, the probabilities associated with different travel scenarios (e.g., arriving early, on time and late) shown in the experiments are directly used as weights. However, evidence from psychology suggests that the shown probabilities may be transformed (underweighted or overweighted) by respondents. To account for this transformation of probabilities, this study incorporates perceptual conditioning through a non-linear probability weighting function into a utility maximisation framework, within which the empirical estimate of the value of expected travel time savings is estimated. The key advantage of this framework is that the estimated willingness to pay value can be directly linked to the source of utility (i.e., the probability distribution of travel time), while taking into account the perceptual transformation of probabilities.     

仓促应战——Strategy For Fight Time

虽然全国汽车场地锦标赛已经进入了第3站,但却是我第一次参加1600cc组别的比赛。我参加的海淀驾校车队,由于决定参加比赛时已经比较接近第1站的开赛时间了,来不及改装赛车,于是最终只能甩过前2站比赛,直接从第3站开始。     

赛车是一项脑力运动——Racing Is a Mental Thing

记得去年在马来西亚雪邦赛道参加一次超级跑车的比赛时,我又吐又泻,病了一周都没好,却还要参加比赛。我用孤苦伶仃的眼神看着我的英国教练,问他怎么办,希望他可以安慰我说：身体虚弱就不要参加比赛了吧。但他指了指脑袋说：“你没问题的,赛车是一项脑力运动,身体虚弱些没关系”。如果那时我对这句话是似懂非懂的话,在珠海试车一天让我彻底解悟了这个观念。     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.     

Forecasting petrol demand and assessing the impact of selective strategies to reduce fuel consumption

Abstract

The use of fossil fuels in transportation is an important topic as a result of growing concerns over global warming. Automobile petrol demand has been of particular interest to researchers and policy-makers, given that the automobile is a major contributor to the enhanced greenhouse effect. This paper forecasts Australia's automobile petrol demand up to the year 2020 based on the best performing forecasting model selected out of eight models. In order to establish ways to reduce the demand for petrol, and the consequent by-product of reducing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, we have estimated the impact on CO₂ for several potential policy instruments, using Transportation and Environment Strategy Impact Simulator (an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation programme). We find that a carbon tax of AU$0.50/kg can reduce automobile kilometres by 5.9%, resulting in reduced demand for petrol and a reduction in CO₂ of 1.5%.     

Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models

Transport fuel consumption and its determinants have received a great deal of attention since the early 1970s. In the literature, different types of modelling methods have been used to estimate petrol demand, each having methodological strengths and weaknesses. This paper is motivated by an ongoing need to review the effectiveness of empirical fuel demand forecasting models, with a focus on theoretical as well as practical considerations in the model-building processes of different model forms. We consider a linear trend model, a quadratic trend model, an exponential trend model, a single exponential smoothing model, Holt’s linear model, Holt–Winters’ model, a partial adjustment model (PAM), and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. More importantly, the study identifies the difference between forecasts and actual observations of petrol demand in order to identify forecasting accuracy. Given the identified best-forecasting model, Australia’s automobile petrol demand from 2007 through to 2020 is presented under the “business-as-usual” scenario.     

Development of a Model for Enhancing Justice in MPA Designation and Zoning and its Application to Taiwan’s South Penghu Marine National Park

Abstract

Multi-purpose marine protected areas (MPAs) are prevalent world-wide as institutional mechanisms deployed in the marine environment to manage multiple uses, conserve resources and protect ecosystems. Yet some people may experience disadvantage following the implementation of new MPAs. One understudied aspect of MPAs is the distribution of advantages and disadvantages and how best to address the “justice” concerns that they raise. This article identifies a framework of principles, methods and tools to address these concerns. It devises a “MPA justice model” and demonstrates its applicability to a Taiwanese case study. In 2014, Taiwan proclaimed its first multiple-purpose MPA, the South Penghu Marine National Park and the case study shows ways that the MPA’s socio-economic sustainability could have been better accomplished. The article focuses on future MPA establishment that incorporates distributional fairness and procedural legitimacy into MPA site designation and zoning design - but might also be adapted to use retrospectively in MPA review processes.     

Assessing financial impact of maritime ergonomics on company level: a case study

The present paper reports a case study examining a conceptual framework for assessing financial impact of occupational maritime ergonomics in a Swedish shipping company. Specifically, the aim was to study the availability and applicability of suggested determinants for operational performance, routines for estimating the effects of ergonomics and the customer’s (sea transport buyer’s) demands for ergonomics management on the case company. The results show that the determinants and subcategories for operational performance in terms of productivity, efficiency and quality are present and applicable, albeit not measured to any large extent. No routines or specific methods for measuring or estimating cost and effects of ergonomics investments, accidents and operational disturbances were found. Further, the results show that the sea transport buyers increasingly express interest for and place demands related to maritime ergonomics, for instance, through compliance of specific standards and guiding principles linked to maritime ergonomics. It is concluded that in order to support and enable managers’ ability to make well-informed decisions and prioritizations, between investments, ergonomic or other, increased knowledge is needed of the financial effects of ergonomics on company core value processes. There is also a need to develop and implement usable tools to simplify these measuring procedures.     

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.