Occupational mortality among British merchant seafarers (1986-1995)

The decline of the British merchant fleet in recent years has led to an increasing proportion of British seafarers taking employment in flags of convenience and other foreign-registered vessels. It is then a matter of some importance as to whether the British seafarers who serve in foreign ships are at greater risk of mortality and, when fatalities do occur, whether the deaths are appropriately investigated. Using information obtained from files at the Registrar General for Shipping, the Marine Accident Investigation Branch and many Coroners, it is evident that British seafarers serving in foreign vessels were, during the study period 1986-1995, at greater risk of mortality through work-related accidents, suicides and unexplained disappearances at sea. Those serving in the British fleet, however, died more frequently through illnesses, and through off-duty accidents and drowning. When fatalities occurred in the British fleet, the relevant log book extracts were routinely deposited with the appropriate British authorities; for deaths in FOC vessels these documents were rarely forthcoming. While the deaths of British seafarers were investigated in the large majority of cases, foreign flag state authorities seldom conducted inquiries; it was the British authorities who usually conducted the investigations.     

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.