An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply

The purpose of this study is first to find out whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, second, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973-2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000-2002 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. The accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and in some cases, such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.     

润滑油监测化验在公路养护行业的应用

介绍了黑龙江省宁安市交通局公路养路段对机械设备实施润滑油监测化验工作３年来的实际应用情况，说明开展此项工作投资少、收益大，是落实设备管理中预防为主方针的具体措施之一．     

Development of an Anti-Lock Brake System for Motorcycle

An Anti-Lock Brake System (ABS) system is developed for motorcycles using different control laws to improve the safety during emergent braking conditions. The mechanical design problem is first investigated so as to modify a scooter to be equipped with the proposed ABS brake system and to set up experimental test stand. For ABS control, the slip control, P1R3, and P2R4 methods are used to implement the controller using an Intel 80196KC single chip microcomputer. The hard-ware-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation is also performed in PC to check the performance in various road conditions including dry and wet roads. It is found experimentally that both P1R3 and P2R4 can both achieve ABS function, but P2R4 performs more desirably than P1R3 method.     

Stochastic modeling of long term wave induced responses of ship structures

This paper presents a procedure for evaluating the long term response distribution in ship structures. A specified travel route through given geographical areas during the lifetime of the ship is defined. The individual scatter diagrams, describing the relative occurrence of different sea states for the geographical areas, are weighted with respect to the relative time occupancy of the ship. A two-dimensional analytical distribution is fitted to the weighted scatter diagram over the lifetime.

Frequency response functions for all the sectorial forces are calculated for different ship speeds, heading angles and loading conditions, and fitted to a bi-cubic spline. The wave spectrum is defined by applying a gamma spectrum. The response spectrum is found using a linear frequency domain analysis. From the response spectrum, the peak distribution of the response in each short term period, conditioned on the loading condition, the ship speed and the wave heading direction is computed. The peak distribution over the lifetime is estimated by unconditioning with respect to sea states, maneuvering and loading condition.     

Shipper's councils: role and responsibility—a western view

Traditionally, liner markets have been seen as dominated by conferences on the seller side, facing small, unorganized shippers onn the buyers' side. This perceived asymmetry has greatly influenced conference legislation in North America (and more recently in the E.U.) and it has been deemed essential that government should regulate conference activities in order to curb any abuse of 'conference power'. In this view, shipowners and shippers are adversaries engaged in a zero-sum battle over transport costs rather than potential or actual partners in global distribution systems. This paper suggests that in today's global markets much can be achieved by cooperationn in the development of logistics systems and that shipowners and shippers may have much to gain from such cooperative alliances. A survey of shippers' councils in 1991-1992 demonstrates the diversity and increasing sophistication of many national shippers' councils, which devote themselves to the task of improving markets through education and the legislative process. The situation in the U.S.A. is different: for legal reasons, conventional shippers' councils do not exist. Instead, 'shippers' associations' play a commercial role in liner markets. It is suggested that European style shippers' councils can and should play an important role in the development and formulation of policies for internatinal liner markets. Such participation requires a cooperative industry environment quite different from the traditional adversarial approach, which is ill suited to global trade and logistics alliances.     

Discrete Adaptive Active Suspension for Hardware Implementation

This paper presents a discrete adaptive control approach for an active suspension. The study involves formulation of an active suspension as a digital controller problem involving the time delays. A nonlinear time varying (NTV), single input single output (SISO) suspension model is considered for the analysis. A discrete model reference adaptive control (DMRAC) approach with recursive least square (RLS) estimation is used to form the controller. The controller is designed to maintain the static equilibrium irrespective of dynamic load variations as a disturbance force on the model. Simulation results for deterministic and stochastic inputs are presented to substantiate the approach. Results indicate good performance of adaptive controller even for large dynamic variations of the model and has the potential for a successful hardware implementation.     

Preloading of independent leg units at locations with difficult seabed conditions

This paper, based on analyses of case histories, reviews soil conditions causing sudden uncontrolled leg penetrations, together with site data needed to plan safe installations of jack-up drilling units. Punch-through-like failure in uniform clay profile is analysed. Preloading procedures aimed at minimizing potential damage to the unit are suggested and discussed.     

The legal framework

The major and minor ports in India operate within different legal frameworks. Both allow privatization, but impose different conditions. Administrative culture has acted as a constraint on privatization in the major ports; private development at the minor ports has been very responsive to the amount of assistance offered by individual States.