A threshold model of social contagion process for evacuation decision making

Individual evacuation decisions are often characterized by the influence of one’s social network. In this paper a threshold model of social contagion, originally proposed in the network science literature, is presented to characterize this social influence in the evacuation decision making process. Initiated by a single agent, the condition of a cascade when a portion of the population decides to evacuate has been derived from the model. Simulation models are also developed to investigate the effects of community mixing patterns and the initial seed on cascade propagation and the effect of previous time-steps considered by the agents and the strength of ties on average cascade size. Insights related to social influence include the significant role of mixing patterns among communities in the network and the role of the initial seed on cascade propagation. Specifically, faster propagation of warning is observed in community networks with greater inter-community connections.     

A General Method for the Evaluation of Vehicle Manoeuvrability with Special Emphasis on Motorcycles

This paper presents a novel approach to the assessment of the manoeuvrability of vehicles which is not based on the simulation of open-loop manoeuvres, nor does it rely on the modelling of the driver as a control system. Instead, the essence of the method is the solution of a two-point optimal control boundary value problem, in which a vehicle, subject to physical constraints like tyre adherence and road borders, among others, is required to go between given initial and final positions as fast as possible. The control inputs - i.e., the driver's actions - that make the vehicle move between the two states in the most efficient way are found as a part of the solution procedure and represent the actions of a sort of ideal, perfect driver . The resulting motion is called the optimal manoeuvre and, besides being the most efficient way that the given vehicle has for travelling between the two points according to the chosen optimal criterion, may be taken as a reference for meaningful comparisons with other vehicles. The value of the penalty function, used to define the optimal condition occurring at the optimal manoeuvre, may be taken as a measure of manoeuvrability or handling. With this approach the manoeuvrability properties are established as intrinsic to the vehicle, being defined with respect to an ideal perfect driver. Some possible forms of the penalty function, which means slightly different concepts of manoeuvrability and handling, are discussed. In the end, the case of motorcycles and some examples of optimal manoeuvres are given.     

L’intégration territoriale des gares sur lignes à grande vitesse en France : une approche typologique

Construction of high-speed railway lines (Lignes à Grande Vitesse — LGV in French) in France and in other European countries has brought considerable changes in railway accessibility for the areas linked to this fast transport network. The new stations on the high-speed lines take maximum advantage of such relational gains. However, mass transit access to these stations often constitutes a problem. Their locations, which are frequently exurban, are not determined by considerations involving efficient mass transit service links, and especially railway links. This situation creates difficulties for prior and subsequent passenger travel, and it means that the local players have to develop new access routes of variable quality. The present article puts forward a quality analysis covering territorial integration of high-speed railway stations via typology of the interactions between these new service points and the established stations in central locations. In a context marked by the increasing burdens placed on local authorities regarding financing for new high-speed railway infrastructures, we examine whether these changes in the players’ roles encourage enhanced consideration as to positioning of high-speed railway stations in relation to accessibility criteria for mass transit.     

Public perceptions of toll roads: A survey of the Texas perspective

Like many U.S. states, Texas is experiencing shortfalls in transportation funding, along with growing needs for system improvements. Accordingly, the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) is turning to tolling to bridge the funding gap. To assist planning efforts and effectively direct public information, a telephone survey of 2111 Texans was undertaken statewide to gauge public opinion on tolling issues.Some issues yielded a definite consensus among survey respondents. Over 70% agreed on attending to existing roads first, keeping existing roads toll-free, reducing tolls after construction, using revenues within the same region, charging higher tolls for trucks, not imposing SOV tolls, and maintaining the same toll rates during rush-hours. Some opinions varied by region. Austinites were more likely to support additional transportation spending, while residents of the Lower Rio Grande Valley were less supportive of raising the gas tax and of public/private partnerships. Opinions also varied with survey design. In eight places in the survey, optional text was provided or question order was modified to intentionally influence response. For two questions, support for tolling was decreased when information on personal transportation costs and higher gas tax rates in other states was offered. Ordered probit and binomial and multinomial logit models were estimated to assess the impact of demographic and travel characteristics on respondent opinions, and results for key issues are presented here. Opinions across demographic groups also were examined. The survey was successful at measuring opinions on several key tolling issues and should prove a useful tool for transportation planners and policymakers.     

Experimental validation of a mathematical model of a reed-valve reciprocating air compressor from an automotive-braking system

Mathematical simulation is the process of designing a model of a real system and then conducting experiments with the simulation to understand the system’s behavior. Mathematical simulation is widely used for investigating and designing compressors, and with a minimal number of simplifying assumptions, mathematical models can be used in conjunction with modern computing tools to solve complicated problems. A considerable amount of previous research has focused on the mathematical modeling of reciprocating air compressors used in automotive braking. The aim of the present work was to experimentally validate the mathematical model for such compressors. We present a simplified and effective mathematical model for estimating compressor performance, and this model can easily be executed using personal computers. Parameters such as compressor speed, discharge pressure and clearance volume were evaluated in terms of their effect on the thermodynamic behavior of compressors. The model can predict cylinder pressure, cylinder volume, cylinder temperature, valve lift and resultant torque at different crank angles; it can also predict the free air delivered and the indicated power of the compressor. Therefore, the model has been validated using experimental results.     

Surface chlorophyll in the Black Sea over 1978–1986 derived from satellite and in situ data

Absolute values of chlorophyll a concentration and its spatial and seasonal variations in the Black Sea were assessed by using satellite CZCS and in situ data. Since the satellite CZCS had operated for the 1978–1986 period, CZCS data was used for assessing the past state of the Black Sea just before the onset of drastic changes observed in late 1980s. The approach used for the calculation of the absolute values of chlorophyll a concentration from CZCS data was based on the direct comparison of in situ chlorophyll a data and those of CZCS and by applying the algorithm developed for the transformation of CZCS data into chlorophyll a values. CZCS Level 2 data related with pigment concentration having a spatial resolution of 1 km at nadir were used. The daily Level 3 files were derived by binning Level 2 values into 4-km grid cells and the monthly and seasonal Level 3 files were created by averaging the daily Level 3 files over the corresponding period. In situ chlorophyll a data were obtained by spectrophotometric and fluorometric methods in 15 scientific cruises over the 1978–1986 period. Total number of ship-measured data used for the comparison with those CZCS values was 590.Chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) was derived from CZCS values (C) with regression equations Chl=kC; the coefficient of transformation k was calculated from six different data sets by taking into account distinctions between subregions and seasons. The reasons for difference in the k values have been analyzed.Statistical comparison of the chlorophyll a values measured in situ and those derived from CZCS data was based on log-transformed data and gave the following results: regression SLOPE=0.842, regression INTERCEPT=−0.081, coefficient of determination (R²)=0.806, root–mean–square ERROR=0.195. The mean monthly chlorophyll a distributions derived from CZCS data over 1978–1986 have been constructed and the mean seasonal chlorophyll a values in different regions have been calculated and analyzed. The significant difference in chlorophyll concentration between the western shelf regions and the open part of the Black Sea has been demonstrated, especially in warm season. At almost all seasons, the highest chlorophyll concentration is observed in the western interior shelf region which is under strong influence of Danube. The summer mean chlorophyll concentration in this region is 18 times higher than that in the open parts and about nine times higher than in the eastern shelf region. The greatest seasonal variations are observed in the open part of the Black Sea: chlorophyll concentration in cold season is four to six times higher than in summer and three to five times higher than in April and October. To the contrary, in the western interior shelf regions, the concentration is higher in May–October (about twice than that in November–March). Seasonal variations in the western outer shelf regions are smoothed out as compared with both the western interior shelf and the open regions.     

The supply side of the automated people mover market: A spectrum of choices

A survey of the supply side of the Automated People Mover (APM) market over the past ten to fifteen years shows some significant trends. In the nineteen eighties, suppliers concentrated on designing, developing, and marketing unique technologies. Thus, each supplier tended to specialize in a single technology, with some variations in size and capacity. With the present growth of the APM market, several APM suppliers have developed, either through mergers or acquisitions, a more diversified range of technologies to meet a variety of system requirements in terms of capacity, service and budget considerations. As a result of this trend, the transit industry now has a full range of technologies that are well proven and capable of meeting the different needs, special operational requirements, and budgets of its potential clients.     

Dynamic Properties of Motorcycle and Scooter Tires: Measurement and Comparison

Summary Results of an experimental research program dealing with motorcycle and scooter tires are presented. Experimental tests were carried out by means of a rotating disk test machine, which is particularly suited to test tires in the presence of large camber angles. First, the capabilities of the rotating disk machine are discussed and results are compared with the ones obtained by means of other test machines. Then the properties of several motorcycle and scooter tires are presented and compared. The advantage of presenting results in terms of camber and sideslip stiffness is highlighted. The effect of tire working conditions (inflation pressure, load and temperature) is analyzed. Finally the measurement of tire torques is discussed and some results dealing with self-aligning, twisting and rolling resistance torques are presented.     

An Investigation into Stick-Slip Vibrations on Vehicle/Track Systems

A model for the numerical simulation of vehicle/track interaction and stick-slip vibration is presented. A finite element model is developed to calculate vertical contact forces. These forces are then coupled through the contact patch into a non-linear time-domain model by which the stick-slip vibration behaviour of a wheel-rail system is analysed. The investigation suggests that stick-slip vibration may occur if a vehicle which has a maligned or an initial 'wind-up' wheeiset meets a vertical irregularity or contaminants on the track.     

The sequenced activity mobility simulator (SAMS): an integrated approach to modeling transportation, land use and air quality

The persistence of environmental problems in urban areas and the prospect of increasing congestion have precipitated a variety of new policies in the USA, with concomitant analytical and modeling requirements for transportation planning. This paper introduces the Sequenced Activity-Mobility Simulator (SAMS), a dynamic and integrated microsimulation forecasting system for transportation, land use and air quality, designed to overcome the deficiencies of conventional four-step travel demand forecasting systems. The proposed SAMS framework represents a departure from many of the conventional paradigms in travel demand forecasting. In particular, it aims at replicating the adaptative dynamics underlying transportation phenomena; explicitly incorporates the time-of-day dimension; represents human behavior based on the satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, principle; and endogenously forecasts socio-demographic, land use, vehicle fleet mix, and other variables that have traditionally been projected externally to be input into the forecasting process.