Impact of freshwater on a subarctic coastal ecosystem under seasonal sea ice (southeastern Hudson Bay, Canada). I. Interannual variability and predicted global warming influence on river plume dynamics and sea ice

Analysis of sea ice cover, runoff and air temperature observations in Hudson Bay shows marked interannual variability. This variability is thought to play a major role in determining overall productivity of the coastal ecosystem by changes to river plume extent, under-ice light conditions and nutrient levels during spring. Extensive field work off the Great Whale River in southeastern Hudson Bay has shown the importance of freshwater discharge, sea ice cover and meteorological forcing on the production of under-ice microalgae and the success of first feeding in fish larvae.Recent global climate model (GCM) results for a doubling of present atmospheric carbon dioxide indicate increases of both air temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Bay area. Predictions based on GCM results are used to estimate future changes to the sea ice and runoff regime. Sea ice breakup in the offshore is predicted to occur about one month earlier than presently. Estimates of the spring freshet in the Great Whale River indicate it will also advance by approximately one month. Onset of the spring freshet will occur about one month before Hudson Bay ice breakup, similar to present. A predicted reduction of about 35% in maximum sea ice thickness will lead to an increase in the ice-ocean interface irradiance and a decrease in melt water input to the Hudson Bay surface waters. These results are used in a discussion of potential effects of global climate change on northern coastal marine environments.     

Duration of trip-making activities by men and women

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a survival analysis for the duration of particular trip-making activities based on sex. Specifically, this study investigates the duration of those activities related to household and family support shopping, personal business, and free time and how these durations vary between men and women. It was found that there were no significant differences in the survival curves (i.e., durations) of free-time or personal business activities; this suggests that men and women spend approximately similar amounts of time on these activities, although it is not known if the activities themselves are similar (for example, banking versus getting gas). Alternatively, sex was found to be a very significant indicator of the duration of household and family support shopping activities. In the model specification, assuming all variables except sex are the same, it was found that women were 1.32 times more likely than men to spend a longer period of time in a household and family support shopping activity. Additionally, it was found that women are 1.33 times more likely than men to have a longer household and family support activity duration if the activity is nested in the journey to work trip.     

Effects of subsidies on urban public transport

Because of a general trend of increasing costs of public transport operations and higher subsidies (in some cases accompanied by falling patronage) the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) initiated a study of subsidisation and sought the help of the Transport and Road Research Laboratory. The study, in which eighteen countries took part, was concerned with the aims of subsidy, the sources and conditions attached to subsidy, trends in subsidies and the effect of subsidies on patronage, fares, service levels, costs and productivity.The qualitative information concerning the aims of subsidy was analysed in relation to the likelihood of achieving such aims, taking into account current experience of attempts to switch car drivers to public transport. The quantitative information on trends referred to public transport stage services covering where possible the entire country and relating to the period 1965–77; these data were supplemented by data from 59 cities in different parts of the world collected in the course of a TRRL-sponsored study of travel demand factors. The relationship between patronage and service levels, and between subsidies and various operating factors, including costs and productivity, were studied using regression analysis and the general conclusion reached was that although the major part of the subsidy paid was reflected by reduced fares and improved service levels there may well have been some leakage into higher unit costs and manning levels.     

The relationship between transportation perceptions and behavior over time

The aim of this paper is to discuss cross-lagged panel analysis in terms of the causal inferences it generates about the relationship of beliefs about modes and mode choice behavior. Frequencies of use of the single-occupant automobile (SOA), bus and carpool, as well as beliefs about each of the modes, were collected from a sample of central business district commuters at two points in time. The belief variables for each mode were summed to form composite measures and were corrected for unreliability due to measurement error.Perceptions of each mode and the frequency of its use were analyzed for influences operating over time. A time interval was assumed to exist during which the variables causally operated on each other. It was assumed that the time necessary for an individual to change modes based on his perception was equivalent to the interval required for a person to alter perceptions based on his experience. The causal structure relating the two variables was also assumed to be stable over time. An additional assumption was required to distinguish between third variable effects, or spuriousness, and dual causation: if a third variable were to be causing the relationship, it would be operating at a relatively constant rate over time.A strong causal relationship was found to be operating between beliefs about SOA and bus and use of those modes over time. The relationship is mutually causative; beliefs determine behavior and behavior reinforces and changes perceptions. Analysis of the carpool data indicated that the causal structure had changed over time and could not be analyzed with this technique. In general, support is evidenced for an adaptation or learning process interpretation of the relationship between beliefs and mode choice behavior.     

Planning for implementation

Although the urban transportation planning process has evolved into the most sophisticated of all urban planning processes, the increasirig difficulty in implementing long-range transportation plans in urban areas today suggests basic questions concerning the process which deserve critical examination.Planning for implementation of urban transportation programs, particularly during periods of rapidly changing human values, requires a continuing re-evaluation of both technical and organizational strategies and their interrelationships.This paper raises some fundamental questions about the traditional activities and relationships that have characterized most urban transportation planning programs in the past. It also suggests a number of strategies, both technical and organizational, that may contribute to the implementation of plans and programs resulting from the transportation planning process.The first portion of this paper discusses the implications of not providing transportation services to match metropolitan growth. The experience of the Washington Metropolitan Area over the past decade is used to illustrate these implications.A discussion of organizational and institutional constraints upon the planning process follows. Then, the implications for the planning process are explored, and the scale of planning is reviewed as well as the need for monitoring the performance and impact of facilities.Next, the paper deals with the need to broaden the range of solutions to transportation problems, including consideration of economic and land development policies to reduce travel demand, as well as the provision of new facilities.Finally, techniques for involving decision-makers in the planning process are discussed. Examples of special project activities in the Washington area are used to illustrate these techniques and their value.     

A pre-appraisal model for rail transit in developing cities

A major research study funded by the UK Overseas Development Administration (ODA) and designed to establish the necessary considerations for viability of mass rapid transit railways in developing cities was recently completed. The analytical core of the study was a pre-appraisal model, which combines an innovative strategic land use/transport model utilizing relationships from developing cities and an economic evaluation model. This model — MRTAP — has now been developed into a user-friendly package which the ODA intend should be made widely available in the developing world. The paper describes the basis of this model.     

On altruists and egoists in activity participation and travel: who are they and do they live together?

Formulation and specification of activity analysis models require better understanding of time allocation behavior that goes beyond the more recent within household analyses to understand selfish and altruistic behavior and how this relates to travel behavior. Using data from 1,471 persons in a recent 2-day time use/activity diary and latent class cluster analysis we identify 11 distinct daily behaviors that span from the intensely self-serving to intensely altruistic. Predicted cluster membership is then used to study within household interactions. The analysis shows strong correlation exists between social role and patterns of altruistic behavior. However, a substantial amount of heterogeneity is also found within social roles. In addition, travel behavior is also very different among altruistic and self-serving time allocation groups. At the household level, a substantial number of households contain persons with similar behavior. Another group of households contains a mix of self-serving and altruistic persons that follow specialized household roles within their households. The majority of households, however, are populated by altruistic persons. Single person households are more likely to be in the self-serving groups but not in their entirety. Altruism at home is directed most often toward the immediate family members. This is less pronounced when we examine altruistic acts outside the home. Konstadinos G. Goulias is a professor of Geography at the University of California Santa Barbara, has been a professor of Civil Engineering at the Pennsylvania State University from 1991 to 2004, and he is the founder and chair of the TRB task force on moving activity-based approaches to practice. Kriste M. Henson is a technical staff member at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the Decision Applications Division and is currently pursing a Ph.D. in Geography at the University of California—Santa Barbara.     

Computing dynamic user equilibria for large-scale transportation networks

In this paper, we present an approach for determining dynamic user equilibria. The method is suitable for disaggregated microscopic and mesoscopic simulation-based models. It is a modification of the convex-simplex method, which disposes with the line search step, and controls the subset of travelers to be re-routed at each step while updating the link travel times after each assignment. To guarantee finite termination, a suitable stopping criterion is adopted. The proposed method is implemented within TRANSIMS, the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System, as a two-stage process that employs a combined use of link performance functions and a microsimulator in order to design a framework suitable for application to real transportation systems. To demonstrate this capability, we apply the developed methodology to a large-scale network, Bignet, which is part of the transportation city network of Portland, Oregon; and a medium-scale network, Blacksburg, Virginia; and provide some comparative analyses. Our results exhibit that an improved distribution of travelers is obtained while consuming less than 17–33% of the effort required by the current version of TRANSIMS.