Transit Users’ Route‐Choice Modelling in Transit Assignment: A Review

Abstract

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in the context of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within‐day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re‐examined. The first group includes shortest‐path heuristics in all‐or‐nothing assignment, random utility maximization route‐choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within‐day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day‐to‐day dynamics, and real‐time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.     

Computational Bayesian Statistics in Transportation Modeling: From Road Safety Analysis to Discrete Choice

In this paper, we review both the fundamentals and the expansion of computational Bayesian econometrics and statistics applied to transportation modeling problems in road safety analysis and travel behavior. Whereas for analyzing accident risk in transportation networks there has been a significant increase in the application of hierarchical Bayes methods, in transportation choice modeling, the use of Bayes estimators is rather scarce. We thus provide a general discussion of the benefits of using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to simulate answers to the problems of point and interval estimation and forecasting, including the use of the simulated posterior for building predictive distributions and constructing credible intervals for measures such as the value of time. Although there is the general idea that going Bayesian is just another way of finding an equivalent to frequentist results, in practice Bayes estimators have the potential of outperforming frequentist estimators and, at the same time, may offer more information. Additionally, Bayesian inference is particularly interesting for small samples and weakly identified models.     

A risk-based first-principles approach to assessing green seas loading on the hatch covers of bulk carriers in extreme weather conditions

This paper aims to present and explain the work undertaken at the SSRC on the Safety of Bulk Carriers in extreme weather conditions over the past 3 years, to draw conclusions deriving there from, concerning key influencing design, operational and environmental parameters and to offer recommendations regarding the rule development process and on the way forward considering research, development and implementation to ship design and operation with the view to improving the safety of these ships cost-effectively. In severe storms, hatch covers of low freeboard vessels such as bulk carriers are the first-line of protection against flooding. Present methods of hatch covers design are still empirical because impact loads due to green seas and structural behaviour due to this type of loads have not been examined, hence not known accurately. The loading due to green seas is implicitly non-linear and, as model test results demonstrated, bulk carriers in extreme conditions are exposed to significant loads, which in some cases exceed current design standards. Since the consequences of hatch cover failure are potentially catastrophic, the risk of this happening should be quantified in probabilistic terms as required by modern safety standards. To this end, the paper aims to propose and implement a methodology for estimating probabilities of deck wetness and impact loads due to green seas as a function of key design and operational parameters.     

Ridership estimation procedure for a transit corridor with new bus rapid transit service

Ridership estimation is a critical step in the planning of a new transit route or change in service. Very often, when a new transit route is introduced, the existing routes will be modified, vehicle capacities changed, or service headways adjusted. This has made ridership forecasts for the new, existing, and modified routes challenging. This paper proposes and demonstrates a procedure that forecasts the ridership of all transit routes along a corridor when a new bus rapid transit (BRT) service is introduced and existing regular bus services are adjusted. The procedure uses demographic data along the corridor, a recent origin–destination survey data, and new and existing transit service features as inputs. It consists of two stages of transit assignment. In the first stage, a transit assignment is performed with the existing transit demand on the proposed BRT and existing bus routes, so that adjustments to the existing bus services can be identified. This transit assignment is performed iteratively until there is no adjustment in transit services. In the second stage, the transit assignment is carried out with the new BRT and adjusted regular bus services, but incorporates a potential growth in ridership because of the new BRT service. The final outputs of the procedure are ridership for all routes and route segments, boarding and alighting volumes at all stops, and a stop‐by‐stop trip matrix. The proposed ridership estimation procedure is applicable to a new BRT route with and without competing regular bus routes and with BRT vehicles traveling in dedicated lanes or in mixed traffic. The application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated via a case study along the Alameda Corridor in El Paso, Texas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PPPs — True Financial Costs and Hidden Returns

The cost of using private finance is at the centre of the public private partnerships (PPPs) debate, but until now most works considered only the direct financial costs such as the loan interest rate and the shareholders return on equity and were based on various secondary sources. This paper focuses on seven shadow toll deals closed in Portugal between 1999 and 2002 and reports the financial costs of the PPP model considering also the associated transaction costs and is based on detailed information included in each concession's financial base case. The transaction costs include financial costs such as banking fees, due diligence costs and the impact of all cash distribution traps, such as reserve accounts or minimum-level of debt ratios. The PPP financial costs were then compared with the costs arising from raising public debt through a government or a public agency bond. Our analysis shows that the PPP ‘true' financing costs are, on average, 370 basis points above the cost of raising public debt and that the ‘transaction costs' account for around 40% of that financial premium.     

A congested and dwell time dependent transit corridor assignment model

This research proposes an equilibrium assignment model for congested public transport corridors in urban areas. In this model, journey times incorporate the effect of bus queuing on travel times and boarding and alighting passengers on dwell times at stops. The model also considers limited bus capacity leading to longer waiting times and more uncomfortable journeys. The proposed model is applied to an example network, and the results are compared with those obtained in a recent study. This is followed by the analysis and discussion of a real case application in Santiago de Chile. Finally, different boarding and alighting times and different vehicle types are evaluated. In all cases, demand on express services tends to be underestimated by using constant dwell time assignment models, leading to potential planning errors for these lines. The results demonstrate the importance of considering demand dependent dwell times in the assignment process, especially at high demand levels when the capacity constraint should also be considered. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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本文提出一种用于评价公路－铁路联合运输货运枢纽选址方案的整数模型。模型中的四个主体为：货运枢纽经营者、交通运输网络设施规划者、客户、社会公众。介绍了可使全局目标优化的基于主体建模方法(ABM)在货运枢纽选址中的应用。最后，本文以澳大利亚昆士兰州东南部的货物联合运输枢纽为例，介绍了其原始选址过程、个体目标函数测试及基于主体的模型设计过程。     

Rail track infrastructure ownership: investment and operational issues

As privatisation of railway systems reach the political agendas in a number of countries, the separation of track infrastructure from train operations is seen as providing the vehicle which will improve profitability within the rail industry. This paper deals with three main issues related to such separation within a freight railway focus, namely: investment appraisal; track standards and maintenance; and train operating performance. The conflicts of interest between the owners of track and their client operators are discussed in detail. Costs related to track capacity and congestion need to be taken into account, given that additional trains are likely to lead to increased risk of delays to existing services. The paper discusses the use of a travel time reliability model to estimate the additional costs imposed on the system through the introduction of specific train services.It is concluded that investment in individual elements of railway infrastructure must be integrated with the overall financial and customer service strategies of both operators and owners. As an alternative to current practices, a hybrid model of track ownership is put forward here. Under such a model, a joint-venture company with equity from the main ÒplayersÓ would be owner of track. This would allow some of the benefits of vertical integration to be retained, whilst providing fair access to new operators.     

Micro-simulation modelling for traffic safety: A review and potential application to heterogeneous traffic environment

This paper critically reviews micro-simulation modelling applications for traffic safety evaluation with respect to the use of different simulation tools, the application of surrogate safety indicators under different aspects of road environments and crash considerations. General input variables used to develop the models; key parameters for crash prediction; and calibration and validation approaches are explored in the paper. The strengths and weaknesses of used simulation packages for traffic safety evaluation are also pointed out. Moreover, recent advancements in the development and application of traffic safety micro-simulation model for safety assessment are also discussed.Despite having a number of studies, there is still a significant void in the development and application of simulation model to evaluate traffic safety of non-lane based heterogeneous traffic environments that predominate in many developing countries. The paper assessed the potential application of traffic safety micro-simulation model in heterogeneous traffic environments. Finally, a number of potentially fruitful future research directions are highlighted.     

Impacts of built environment and emerging green technologies on daily transportation greenhouse gas emissions in Quebec cities: a disaggregate modeling approach

This paper aims to investigate the impact of the built environment (BE) and emerging transit and car technologies on household transport-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) across three urban regions. Trip-level GHG emissions are first estimated by combining different data sources such as origin–destination (OD) surveys, vehicle fleet fuel consumption rates, and transit ridership data. BE indicators for the different urban regions are generated for each household and the impact of neighborhood typologies is derived based on these indicators. A traditional ordinary least square (OLS) regression approach is then used to investigate the direct association between the BE indicators, socio-demographics, and household GHGs. The effect of neighborhood typologies on GHGs is explored using both OLS and a simultaneous equation modeling approach. Once the best models are determined for each urban region, the potential impact of BE is determined through elasticities and compared with the impact of technological improvements. For this, various fuel efficiency scenarios are formulated and the reductions on household GHGs are determined. Once the potential impact of green transit and car technologies is determined, the results are compared to those related to BE initiatives. Among other results, it is found that BE attributes have a statistically significant effect on GHGs. However, the elasticities are very small, as reported in several previous studies. For instance, a 10 % increase in population density will result in 3.5, 1.5 and 1.4 % reduction in Montreal, Quebec and Sherbrooke, respectively. It is also important to highlight the significant variation of household GHGs among neighborhoods in the same city, variation which is much greater than among cities. In the short term, improvements on the private passenger vehicle fleet are expected to be much more significant than BE and green transit technologies. However, the combined effect of BE strategies and private-motor vehicle technological improvement would result in more significant GHGs reductions in the long term.