在公交占主导地位的香港居民对小汽车的依赖性

减少城市的小汽车交通量,促进城市交通运输能力的持续稳定发展,已成为人口密集型的大城市制定交通运输政策的一项主要目标,也是香港制定交通运输政策所期望达到的目标。但根据国际标准,香港居民对小汽车的拥有量和使用频率已经非常低了。首先是明确香港人为什么要拥有小汽车,其次是探索小汽车的拥有者对小汽车的依赖程度,第三是识别政策的含意。基于对401位小汽车拥有者的调查,得出了这样的结论：尽管城市里有很好的公共交通,但人们一旦拥有了小汽车后,便会开始变得依桢小汽车进行所有的外出活动。因此,为了促进交通运输持续、稳定发展,小汽车的拥有量和使用频率必须受到控制。     

A short-term adaptive forecasting model for BIFFEX speculation: a Box—Jenkins approach

There are numerous possible advantages to be gained from the accurate prediction of future movements in the Baltic Freight Index (BFI). Because of the difficulties inherent in long-range forecasting, however, the potential for such predictions to provide insight into the future state of the physical dry bulk market is perhaps limited. The greater accuracy of short-term forecasts, on the other hand, facilitates the development of a forecasting model form is justified by the inevitably continuous nature of futures market speculation. Such a model is developed through the application of the Box—Jenkins approach to time series analysis and forecasting. The methodology is presented and the resulting model is evaluated on the basis of objective measures of predictive power and by comparison with alternative forecasting models. Finally, the applicability of the model to the practice of BIFFEX speculation is assessed by judging its performance within a simulated BIFFEX trading environment.     

The influence of qualitative factors in Isle of Man ship registration decisions

Open registers have developed in recent years as an economic necessity allowing costs to be cut in response to an over-tonnaged marketplace where low to nonexistent profit margins were the norm under the registers of the traditional maritime nations. These open registers allow shipowners the flexibility to reduce their operating costs by, for example, employing cheap foreign crews. The majority of studies in this area have concentrated, quite rightly, on the economic reasons why shipowners flag-out to registers other than their home register. There are, however, a number of more nebulous reasons why shipowners choose one open register as opposed to another. This paper presents the results of a survey which attempts to deduce these qualitative influences over register choice. The specific context of the Isle of Man register is used to illustrate the importance of such factors.