Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

The visual effects of port redevelopment alternatives

Abstract

In the early 1970s, Seattle Piers 90/91 were declared surplus federal property by the GSA. These obsolescent half‐mile‐long piers and their adjacent uplands were purchased by the Port of Seattle for redevelopment. This urban waterfront site of almost 200 acres presents the Port of Seattle with a number of severe planning problems. While it is the last large deep‐water site on Elliott Bay, it is also in a very sensitive location, since it is overlooked on two sides by vocal residential communities with a history of active intervention in development projects on visual and other environmental grounds.

At Piers 90/91, public concerns over the visual effects of port redevelopment include:

1. nuisance effects of night‐operations lighting on adjacent hillside residences;

2. nighttime obstruction of distant views due to increased foreground illumination;

3. day and night view obstruction by tall structures such as container‐handling cranes;

4. alteration of the character of both day and nighttime views by new port facilities.

As part of a program to study the effects of alternative redevelopment strategies for Piers 90/91, the Port has undertaken a through examination of the visual effects of different uses, their visual appropriateness, and the ways by which adverse visual effects can be mitigated. The results were incorporated into an environmental impact statement which documented compliance with the Seattle Shoreline Master Program and with view protection and glare provisions of the City's S.E.P.A. guidelines.

A systematic Visual Resource Management (VRM) approach was successfully employed on this coastal zone project. Major elements included visibility mapping, key view selection, analysis of existing visual character, simulation of alternatives, assessment of relative visual compatibility, and determination of effective mitigation measures. Community involvement has also been a critical element in this approach to assessing and managing the visual effects of redevelopment in a major urban port.     

A decision support approach to the computerisation of some operational decision problems in community transport

Community Transport (CT) in the UK operates a diverse range of services, and organisations are computerising management and operational functions. This paper describes the approach which has been taken to computerising four operational decision making functions.

The paper considers models of human decision making and problem solving, with particular reference to an information processing view of cognitive activity and to perception and memory. The design of decision support systems is also discussed.

Four decision problems are considered. For each, the paper considers how people tackle the problem, how computers can be used to tackle it and the approach which has been adopted.

For allocating trips to vehicles using a diary, the approach has been to provide a representation on screen of a manual diary. For vehicle brokerage, vehicles are presented to the operator allocating a booking in an order based on the Sequence Number, an index of how ‘difficult to book’ a vehicle is, and the distance of the vehicle's base from the start point of the trip. For the sorting of passenger pick‐ups into an efficient tour, traditional solutions to the travelling salesperson problem have been rejected in favour of a solution using spacefilling curves. Finally, for allocating dial‐a‐ride passenger trips to vehicle shifts an approach has been chosen which presents the operator with appropriate information rather than attempting to automate the scheduling.

The paper concludes that the approach to the diary has been successful and accepted by operators, although the similar approach to the dial‐a‐ride scheduling has not, as the system has not yet been able to replace manual scheduling aids. The facility to order passenger pick‐ups is little used by operators. Finally, it is suggested that the vehicle brokerage problem may be an appropriate use of fuzzy logic.     

Sensitivity of the wheel–rail contact interactions and Dang Van Fatigue Index in the rail with respect to irregularities of the track geometry

This paper investigates the effects of the track geometry irregularities on the wheel–rail dynamic interactions and the rail fatigue initiation through the application of the Dang Van criterion, that supposes an elastic shakedown of the structure. The irregularities are modelled, using experimental data, as a stochastic field which is representative of the considered railway network. The tracks thus generated are introduced as the input of a railway dynamics software to characterise the stochastic contact patch and the parameters on which it depends: contact forces and wheelset–rail relative position. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed on quantities of interest representative of the dynamic behaviour of the system, with respect to the stochastic geometry irregularities and for different curve radius classes and operating conditions. The estimation of the internal stresses and the fatigue index being more time-consuming than the dynamical simulations, the sensitivity analysis is performed through a metamodel, whose input parameters are the wheel–rail relative position and velocity. The coefficient of variation of the number of fatigue cycles, when the simulations are performed with random geometry irregularities, varies between 0.13 and 0.28. In a large radius curve, the most influent irregularity is the horizontal curvature, while, in a tight curve, the gauge becomes more important.     

European advanced driver training programs: Reasons for optimism

Post license advanced driver training programs in the US and early programs in Europe have often failed to accomplish their stated objectives because, it is suspected, that drivers gain self perceived driving skills that exceed their true skills—leading to increased post training crashes. The consensus from the evaluation of countless advanced driver training programs is that these programs are a detriment to safety, especially for novice, young, male drivers.Some European countries including Sweden, Finland, Austria, Luxembourg, and Norway, have continued to refine these programs, with an entirely new training philosophy emerging around 1990. These ‘post-renewal’ programs have shown considerable promise, despite various data quality and availability concerns. These programs share in common a focus on teaching drivers about self assessment and anticipation of risk, as opposed to teaching drivers how to master driving at the limits of tire adhesion. The programs focus on factors such as self actualization and driving discipline, rather than low level mastery of skills. Drivers are meant to depart these renewed programs with a more realistic assessment of their driving abilities. These renewed programs require considerable specialized and costly infrastructure including dedicated driver training facilities with driving modules engineered specifically for advanced driver training and highly structured curriculums. They are conspicuously missing from both the US road safety toolbox and academic literature. Given the considerable road safety concerns associated with US novice male drivers in particular, these programs warrant further attention.This paper reviews the predominant features and empirical evidence surrounding post licensing advanced driver training programs focused on novice drivers. A clear articulation of differences between the renewed and current US advanced driver training programs is provided. While the individual quantitative evaluations range from marginally to significantly effective in reducing novice driver crash risk, they have been criticized for evaluation deficiencies ranging from small sample sizes to confounding variables to lack of exposure metrics. Collectively, however, the programs sited in the paper suggest at least a marginally positive effect that needs to be validated with further studies. If additional well controlled studies can validate these programs, a pilot program in the US should be considered.     

Entre marche et métro, les mouvements intra-urbains des touristes sous le prisme de l’? adhérence ? à Paris et en ?le-de-France

The urban movement of tourists remains largely unknown, but the mobility of tourists contributes to the metropolitan process. Around the notion of ??adherence??, this article demonstrates how, in the Paris metropole, tourists rely mainly on walking and the use of the tube to travel within the city. The structurally different characteristics of walking and the use of the tube represent a theoretical opposition between the two types of movements that are differently ??adherent?? to the city. However, these mobilities complement each other. Indeed, the partial disconnection of the tube is addressed by the direct connection and proximity to the city allowed by the pedestrian means.     

Patchiness in the Fly River plume in Torres Strait

Oceanographic studies were carried out from August 1994 to March 1995 on the intrusion of the Fly River plume in Torres Strait. Measurements at offshore coral reefs revealed an event of decreased salinity (≈24) while salinity of the water over the reefs fluctuated between 30–34 the rest of the time. Modelling suggests that this event resulted from the reversal of longshore currents advecting old river plume water back past the river mouth. There the new river water mixed with the old river plume water generating a patch of low-salinity water. While such events may be infrequent, they have the potential to leave a terrestrial signature on offshore coral reefs, in terms of (1) an input of terrigenous sediment and (2) the possible incorporation of riverine particulate metal into the food chain. The impact during an intrusion event may be significant. In the long term the riverine material is diluted in calcareous sediment produced throughout the year by bio-erosion of coral reefs.     

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson’s Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.     

Aircraft and maintenance scheduling support,mathematical insights and a proposed interactive system

In this paper we first review the current practice of operative aircraft and maintenance scheduling at the Hungarian Airlines. The ideas to be included in the proposed operative scheduling support system mean new contributions from both the algorithmic and human-computer interaction points of view. The algorithm is based on new graph theoretical results which were motivated by the necessity of combining a given flight schedule with the strict maintenance requirements of the aircraft. Aircraft rotation corresponds in mathematical terms to the coloring of an interval graph with colors representing the tail numbers in such a way that the vertices corresponding to maintenance checks are colored in advance. The human-computer interface is built on the Microsoft Windows graphics environment, which allows a simultaneous, visual and active contact with all necessary information and methods.