Effect of a speed reduction of containerships in response to higher energy costs in Sulphur Emission Control Areas

The objective of this paper is to explore the possible consequences of the future low-sulphur fuel requirements in Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) on vessel speed, from the standpoint of the container shipping industry. Rational energy use, speed reduction, and revenues are closely related in the container shipping sector because speed reductions may provide substantial energy and cost savings. The operators could consider reducing their speed in SECA in order to save on fuel that will become relatively expensive. However, to maintain a weekly frequency without adding new ships, such a behaviour implies that the required speed at sea outside the SECA area increases. This paper aims to investigate if such a difference in speed is cost-effective, and if the increase in speed outside SECA may result in an increase in CO₂ emissions of the total cycle. We propose a cost model that estimates the cost-minimising combination of speeds inside and outside SECA, and the resulting CO₂ emissions of the liner service. Applying this model to representative liner services serving North Europe, we find that differentiating speed accordingly slightly decreases total costs and increases CO₂ emissions in a similar way. The results are sensitive to the price of low-sulphur fuels, the part of the cycle in SECA and the number of ships deployed in the service.     

Airline ambidextrous competition under an emissions trading scheme – A reference-dependent behavioral perspective

This study presents a reference-dependent Hotelling model for analyzing airline competition in pricing and green transportation investment, as well as the resulting financial performance under the European Union emission trading scheme. One feature of the proposed methodology is that it embeds psychological benefits/costs of consumers to characterize consumer attitudes to the increases in airline fare adjustments and improvements in green transportation. This study then investigates the equilibrium solutions for airfare adjustment and green transportation investment margins in different scenarios. The analytical results reveal specific operational conditions under which a cost-efficient airline can gain supreme competitive advantage by increasing both airfare and green transportation investment margins beyond the increases made by competitors under the emission trading scheme, whereas certain specific conditions may favor a cost leadership strategy. Conversely, a cost-inefficient airline can compete with a cost-efficient airline in both market share and profitability using the green transportation investment-differentiation strategy, particularly when consumers perceive the airfare difference as equaling the increased psychological benefit induced by the airline’s green effort.     

The possible designation of the Mediterranean Sea as a SECA: A case study

In view of the ongoing discussions concerning the possible designation of the Mediterranean Sea as a Sulphur Emission Control Area (SECA), a modal split model was applied to a case involving the transportation of consolidated cargoes between Thessaloniki, Greece and industrial hubs of northern Germany. A road-only option was assessed against a combined-transport route involving a ferry (Greece–Italy) and a truck-on-train (Italy–Austria) service. The logit model used considers two variables as determinants of the modal selection: transport cost and time. The data are derived from interviews with a small transport service provider, typical for Greece, and are based on actual trips made (revealed preferences). The results predict that the designation of the Mediterranean as a SECA will cause a modal shift in favour of the road-only route by 5.2%, which under certain assumptions can reach 17.1%. However, the environmental implications of the resulting modal choices, calculated through the EcoTransIT World web based tool, are positive in relation to all emissions examined. This is attributed to the longer distance of the combined-transport option in comparison to the road-only one and, the poor environmental performance of the Ro-Pax vessels basically due to the need to maintain a relatively high speed.     

我国轻型汽油车污染物排放劣化系数分析

对我国轻型汽油车Ⅴ型试验结果进行了统计和分析,得出了2001年后我国轻型汽油车型式核准各污染物成分实测劣化系数的综合水平。     

Driving cycles that reproduce driving patterns,energy consumptions and tailpipe emissions

This study presents the Energy Based Micro-trip (EBMT) method, which is a new method to construct driving cycles that represent local driving patterns and reproduce the real energy consumption and tailpipe emissions from vehicles in a given region. It uses data of specific energy consumption, speed, and percentage of idling time as criteria of acceptable representativeness. To study the performance of the EBMT, we used a database of speed, fuel consumption, and tailpipe emissions (CO₂, CO, and NO_x), which was obtained monitoring at 1 Hz, the operation of 15 heavy-duty vehicles when they operated within different traffic conditions, during eight months. The speed vs. time data contained in this database defined the local driving pattern, which was described by 19 characteristic parameters (CPs). Using this database, we ran the EBMT and described the resulting driving cycle by 19 characteristics parameters (CPs*). The relative differences between CPs and CPs* quantified how close the obtained driving cycle represented the driving pattern. To observe tendencies of our results, we repeated the process 1000 times and reported the average relative difference (ARD) and the interquartile range (IQR) of those differences for each CP.. We repeated the process for the case of a traditional Micro-trip method and compared to previous results. The driving cycles constructed by the EBMT method showed the lowest values of ARDs and IQRs, meaning that it produces driving cycles with the highest representativeness of the driving patterns, and the best reproduction of energy consumption, and tailpipe emissions.     

Atmospheric dispersion modeling near a roadway under calm meteorological conditions

Atmospheric pollutant dispersion near sources is typically simulated by Gaussian models because of their efficient compromise between reasonable accuracy and manageable computational time. However, the standard Gaussian dispersion formula applies downwind of a source under advective conditions with a well-defined wind direction and cannot calculate air pollutant concentrations under calm conditions with fluctuating wind direction and/or upwind of the emission source. Attempts have been made to address atmospheric dispersion under such conditions. This work evaluates the performance of standard and modified Gaussian plume models using measurements of NO₂, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, five inorganic ions and seven metals conducted near a freeway in Grenoble, France, during 11–27 September 2011. The formulation for calm conditions significantly improves model performance. However, it appears that atmospheric dispersion due to vehicle-induced turbulence is still underestimated. Furthermore, model performance is poor for particulate species unless road dust resuspension by traffic is explicitly taken into account.     

Does emission control area policy reduce sulfur dioxides concentration in Shanghai?

As an important measure to abate ship-source air emissions, the establishment of Emission Control Area (ECA) has been adopted not only at international level, but also at national and regional level. However, there exists a research gap of employing econometric models to enrich the ECA policy evaluation research by testing the effectiveness of an ECA policy based on the empirical data. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the ECA policy in shanghai port by adopting regression discontinuity (RD) approach. The RD design is considered as a wonderful substitution for the randomized control trial, which usually serves as a conventional and effective tool to address endogeneity. The causal effect of the ECA policy on the SO₂ concentration reduction can be detected by the RD approach. According to the estimated results, there is a discontinuity around the ECA policy cutoff point, and it is indicated that the SO₂ concentration in Shanghai decreased by at least 0.229 μg/m³ daily on average due to the implementation of the ECA policy. The positive role that the ECA policy plays in reducing SO₂ concentration in Shanghai is well demonstrated. This paper also puts forward an agenda for the future studies in the domain of the ECA policy evaluation.     

Measuring transport related CO2 emissions induced by online and brick-and-mortar retailing

We develop a method for empirically measuring the difference in transport related carbon footprint between traditional and online retailing (“e-tailing”) from entry point to a geographical area to consumer residence. The method only requires data on the locations of brick-and-mortar stores, online delivery points, and residences of the region’s population, and on the goods transportation networks in the studied region. Such data are readily available in most countries. The method has been evaluated using data from the Dalecarlia region in Sweden, and is shown to be robust to all assumptions made. In our empirical example, the results indicate that the average distance from consumer residence to a brick-and-mortar retailer is 48.54 km in the studied region, while the average distance to an online delivery point is 6.7 km. The results also indicate that e-tailing increases the average distance traveled from the regional entry point to the delivery point from 47.15 km for a brick-and-mortar store to 122.75 km for the online delivery points. However, as professional carriers transport the products in bulk to stores or online delivery points, which is more efficient than consumers’ transporting the products to their residences, the results indicate that consumers switching from traditional to e-tailing on average reduce their transport CO₂ footprints by 84% when buying standard consumer electronics products.     

Second-order models and traffic data from mobile sensors

Mobile sensing enabled by GPS or smart phones has become an increasingly important source of traffic data. For sufficient coverage of the traffic stream, it is important to maintain a reasonable penetration rate of probe vehicles. From the standpoint of capturing higher-order traffic quantities such as acceleration/deceleration, emission and fuel consumption rates, it is desirable to examine the impact on the estimation accuracy of sampling frequency on vehicle position. Of the two issues raised above, the latter is rarely studied in the literature. This paper addresses the impact of both sampling frequency and penetration rate on mobile sensing of highway traffic. To capture inhomogeneous driving conditions and deviation of traffic from the equilibrium state, we employ the second-order phase transition model (PTM). Several data fusion schemes that incorporate vehicle trajectory data into the PTM are proposed. And, a case study of the NGSIM dataset is presented which shows the estimation results of various Eulerian and Lagrangian traffic quantities. The findings show that while first-order traffic quantities can be accurately estimated even with a low sampling frequency, higher-order traffic quantities, such as acceleration, deviation, and emission rate, tend to be misinterpreted due to insufficiently sampled vehicle locations. We also show that a correction factor approach has the potential to reduce the sensing error arising from low sampling frequency and penetration rate, making the estimation of higher-order quantities more robust against insufficient data coverage of the highway traffic.     

Modeling the impacts of alternative emission trading schemes on international shipping

Various market-based measures have been proposed to reduce CO₂ emissions from international shipping. One promising mechanism under consideration is the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). This study analyzes and benchmarks the economic implications of two alternative ETS mechanisms, namely, an open ETS compared to a Maritime only ETS (METS). The analytical solutions and model calibration results allow us to quantify the impacts of alternative ETS schemes on the container shipping sector and the dry bulk shipping sector. It is found that an ETS, whether open or maritime only, will decrease shipping speed, carrier outputs and fuel consumption for both the container and dry bulk sectors, even in the presence of a “wind-fall” profit to shipping companies. Under an open ETS, the dry bulk sector will suffer from a higher proportional reduction in output than the container sector, and will thus sell more emission permits or purchase fewer permits. Under an METS, container carriers will buy emission permits from the dry bulk side. In addition, under an METS the degree of competition within one sector will have spill-over effects on the other sector. Specifically, when the sector that sells (buys) permits is more collusive (competitive), the equilibrium permit price will rise. This study provides a framework for identifying the moderating effects of market structure and competition between firms on emission reduction schemes, and emphasizes the importance of understanding the differential impacts of ETS schemes on individual sectors within an industry when considering alternative policies.