运输线路质量招投标中的监督博弈

用完全信息静态和动态博弈模型分析了监督在运输线路质量招投标中的作用以及运输企业和运管部门之间的监督博弈,说明了有效的多方位的监督机制是实施运输线路质量招投标的重要保证。     

Multi-scale perimeter control approach in a connected-vehicle environment

This paper proposes a novel approach to integrate optimal control of perimeter intersections (i.e. to minimize local delay) into the perimeter control scheme (i.e. to optimize traffic performance at the network level). This is a complex control problem rarely explored in the literature. In particular, modeling the interaction between the network level control and the local level control has not been fully considered. Utilizing the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) as the traffic performance indicator, we formulate a dynamic system model, and design a Model Predictive Control (MPC) based controller coupling two competing control objectives and optimizing the performance at the local and the network level as a whole. To solve this highly non-linear optimization problem, we employ an approximation framework, enabling the optimal solution of this large-scale problem to be feasible and efficient. Numerical analysis shows that by applying the proposed controller, the protected network can operate around the desired state as expressed by the MFD, while the total delay at the perimeter is minimized as well. Moreover, the paper sheds light on the robustness of the proposed controller. This multi-scale hybrid controller is further extended to a stochastic MPC scheme, where connected vehicles (CV) serve as the only data source. Hence, low penetration rates of CVs lead to strong noises in the controller. This is a first attempt to develop a network-level traffic control methodology by using the emerging CV technology. We consider the stochasticity in traffic state estimation and the shape of the MFD. Simulation analysis demonstrates the robustness of the proposed stochastic controller, showing that efficient controllers can indeed be designed with this newly-spread vehicle technology even in the absence of other data collection schemes (e.g. loop detectors).     

Estimating metro passengers’ path choices by combining self-reported revealed preference and smart card data

With the help of automated fare collection systems in the metro network, more and more smart card (SC) data has been widely accumulated, which includes abundant information (i.e., Big Data). However, its inability to record passengers’ transfer information and factors affecting passengers’ travel behaviors (e.g., socio-demographics) limits further potential applications. In contrast, self-reported Revealed Preference (RP) data can be collected via questionnaire surveys to include those factors; however, its sample size is usually very small in comparison to SC data. The purpose of this study is to propose a new set of approaches of estimating metro passengers’ path choices by combining self-reported RP and SC data. These approaches have the following attractive features. The most important feature is to jointly estimate these two data sets based on a nested model structure with a balance parameter by accommodating different scales of the two data sets. The second feature is that a path choice model is built to incorporate stochastic travel time budget and latent individual risk-averse attitude toward travel time variations, where the former is derived from the latter and the latter is further represented based on a latent variable model with observed individual socio-demographics. The third feature is that an algorithm of combining the two types of data is developed by integrating an Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a nested logit model estimation method. The above-proposed approaches are examined based on data from Guangzhou Metro, China. The results show the superiority of combined data over single data source in terms of both estimation and forecasting performance.     

Inferring patterns in the multi-week activity sequences of public transport users

The public transport networks of dense cities such as London serve passengers with widely different travel patterns. In line with the diverse lives of urban dwellers, activities and journeys are combined within days and across days in diverse sequences. From personalized customer information, to improved travel demand models, understanding this type of heterogeneity among transit users is relevant to a number of applications core to public transport agencies’ function. In this study, passenger heterogeneity is investigated based on a longitudinal representation of each user’s multi-week activity sequence derived from smart card data. We propose a methodology leveraging this representation to identify clusters of users with similar activity sequence structure. The methodology is applied to a large sample (n = 33,026) from London’s public transport network, in which each passenger is represented by a continuous 4-week activity sequence. The application reveals 11 clusters, each characterized by a distinct sequence structure. Socio-demographic information available for a small sample of users (n = 1973) is combined to smart card transactions to analyze associations between the identified patterns and demographic attributes including passenger age, occupation, household composition and income, and vehicle ownership. The analysis reveals that significant connections exist between the demographic attributes of users and activity patterns identified exclusively from fare transactions.     

Stochastic frontier estimation of budgets for Kuhn–Tucker demand systems: Application to activity time-use analysis

We propose a stochastic frontier approach to estimate budgets for the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. The approach is useful when the underlying time and/or money budgets driving a choice situation are unobserved, but the expenditures on the choice alternatives of interest are observed. Several MDCEV applications hitherto used the observed total expenditure on the choice alternatives as the budget to model expenditure allocation among choice alternatives. This does not allow for increases or decreases in the total expenditure due to changes in choice alternative-specific attributes, but only allows a reallocation of the observed total expenditure among different alternatives. The stochastic frontier approach helps address this issue by invoking the notion that consumers operate under latent budgets that can be conceived (and modeled) as the maximum possible expenditure they are willing to incur. The proposed method is applied to analyze the daily out-of-home activity participation and time-use patterns in a survey sample of non-working adults in Florida. First, a stochastic frontier regression is performed on the observed out-of-home activity time expenditure (OH-ATE) to estimate the unobserved out-of-home activity time frontier (OH-ATF). The estimated frontier is interpreted as a subjective limit or maximum possible time individuals can allocate to out-of-home activities and used as the time budget governing out-of-home time-use choices in an MDCEV model. The efficacy of this approach is compared with other approaches for estimating time budgets for the MDCEV model, including: (a) a log-linear regression on the total observed expenditure for out-of-home activities and (b) arbitrarily assumed, constant time budgets for all individuals in the sample. A comparison of predictive accuracy in time-use patterns suggests that the stochastic frontier and log-linear regression approaches perform better than arbitrary assumptions on time budgets. Between the stochastic frontier and log-linear regression approaches, the former results in slightly better predictions of activity participation rates while the latter results in slightly better predictions of activity durations. A comparison of policy simulations demonstrates that the stochastic frontier approach allows for the total out-of-home activity time expenditure to either expand or shrink due to changes in alternative-specific attributes. The log-linear regression approach allows for changes in total time expenditure due to changes in decision-maker attributes, but not due to changes in alternative-specific attributes.     

Effect of providing traffic information estimated by a stochastic network equilibrium model with stochastic demand

To estimate travel times through road networks, in this study, we assume a stochastic demand and formulate a stochastic network equilibrium model whose travel times, flows, and demands are stochastic. This model enables us to examine network reliability under stochastic circumstances and to evaluate the effect of providing traffic information on travel times. For traffic information, we focus on travel time information and propose methods to evaluate the effect of providing that information. To examine the feasibility and validity of the proposed model and methods, we apply them to a simple network and the real road network of Kanazawa, Japan. The results indicate that providing ambulance drivers in Kanazawa with travel time information leads to an average reduction in travel time of approximately three minutes.     

Stochastic optimal path problem with relays

This paper studies the optimal path problem for travelers driving with vehicles of a limited range, such as most battery electric vehicles currently available in the market. The optimal path in this problem often consists of several relay points, where the vehicles can be refueled to extend its range. We propose a stochastic optimal path problem with relays (SOPPR), which aims at minimizing a general expected cost while maintaining a reasonable arrival probability. To account for uncertainty in the road network, the travel speed on a road segment is treated as a discrete random variable, which determines the total energy required to traverse the segment. SOPPR is formulated in two stages in this paper. In the first stage, an optimal routing problem is solved repeatedly to obtain the expected costs and arrival probabilities from any node to all refueling nodes and the destination. With this information, the second stage constructs an auxiliary network, on which the sequence of refueling decisions can be obtained by solving another optimal path problem. Label-correcting algorithms are developed to solve the routing problems in both stages. Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the stochastic and deterministic models, to examine the impact of different parameters on the routing results, and to evaluate the computational performance of the proposed algorithms.     

User satisfaction with battery electric vehicles in South Korea

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have been promoted by the government over the last several years, driven by public concern over pollutant emissions from internal combustion engines. However, the conditions related to driving BEVs are not yet satisfactory for many BEV users, as evident from sluggish market growth compared with general market forecasts. Thus, a fundamental aspect of diagnosing the current conditions of BEV operation is to evaluate BEV user satisfaction. This study establishes hypothetical links between potential factors and BEV user satisfaction, and between BEV use satisfaction and intention to repurchase and recommend. The hypothetical links are specified using a partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) and estimated based on a survey of actual BEV owners (N=160) who had driven BEVs for at least six months. The outcomes of PLS-SEM suggest that seven relations out of nine hypothetical links were statistically significant. In particular, it is noticeable that the intention for cost-saving during operation is a key factor for BEV user satisfaction and that user satisfaction with range and charging has a positive effect on the overall satisfaction of BEV users. Furthermore, those who are satisfied with BEVs have the intention to repurchase and recommend BEVs to others. Because this study was conducted based on actual experience of BEV users, the findings could enhance understanding of the BEV driving environment and, thus, pave the way to provision of better service for BEV users.     

The econometric estimation of airports’ cost function

The econometric estimation of cost functions has been proposed in the literature as a suitable approach in order to obtain estimations of marginal costs, efficiency levels and scale elasticities for transport industries. However, regarding the airport industry, no significant attention has been paid in developing an airport-specific estimation methodology rather than adapting the procedures applied to other industries. The lack of comparable airport data is one of the causes which could explain the scarcity of this literature in the past, as well as the use of very limited approaches to explain airport technology. This paper tries to overcome these limitations by developing an airport-specific methodology to estimate a multi-output long-run cost function using an unbalanced pooled database on 161 airports worldwide. The specification of hedonically-adjusted aircraft operations, domestic and international passengers, cargo and commercial revenues in the output vector, as well as the calculation of input prices are discussed. Both technical and allocative inefficiencies are specified in the model using a Stochastic Frontier method that has been estimated through Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.     

A transit ridership‐revenue model

The paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings of an urban mass transit revenue and ridership model designed to provide medium term forecasts of future trends in situations of data sparsity. The specific example laid out in the paper relates to the Greater Vancouver Regional District but the framework is of general applicability. Much of the informational input at the initial stage is of a general kind and details of the specific transit system and local area are of the sort which should be readily available to most urban authorities. The model developed is designed for use on a desk‐top micro‐computer and offers an inter‐active method of forecasting. The operator has the facility to both consider fare policy sensitivity and review alternative scenarios about future trends in exogenous factors. A selection of forecasts developed for the GVRD is provided to reveal the main features of the approach.