基于OSPF协议的路径诱导系统

路径诱导系统是智能运输系统最具代表性的一个功能子系统。本文设计了一种基于Internet目前广泛使用的OS-PF(Open Shortest Path First)路由选择协议的诱导系统。该系统由交通网络和相应的诱导数据网络组成;数据网络系统包括带有无线接入单元的交叉口诱导设备和连接诱导设备的数据链路。交叉口诱导设备之间通过泛洪过程交换实时的路段状态信息,使用最短路算法计算诱导方案。车载诱导单元使用IEEE 802.11无线局域网协议通过无线接入单元找到距离最近的交叉口诱导设备,通过发送路径请求报文和接收路径应答报文获得最短路径。分析表明,基于OSPF协议的路径诱导系统具有收敛快、可靠性强、可扩充性好以及成本低等特点。该方法为我国交通流诱导系统的研究提供了新的思路。     

Forecasting Travel Demand with Alternatively Structured Models of Trip Frequency

Abstract

This paper develops alternatively structured trip frequency/generation models, and investigates their forecast performance. The first model presented is the simple linear model with a discussion of its theoretical shortcomings. Models that address, in a progressive fashion, the underlying shortcomings of the linear model are then presented. These models are namely the truncated normal model, the Poisson model, the negative binomial model, and an ordered logit model. The modeling unit employed in the study is the individual. The models are assessed by how closely they are able to replicate trips produced by each individual in the dataset, and by each traffic zone. This assessment of performance in prediction is conducted on an estimation dataset collected in the Toronto Region in 1986, and on an independent dataset collected in the same geographic region, 10 years later, in 1996. The results show that, notwithstanding the simplicity of the simple linear model and its lack of an explicit underlying travel behavioral theory, it predicts travel in the base and forecast years with less error compared to any of the more complex models.     

Travel time variability and airport accessibility

We analyze the cost of access travel time variability for air travelers. Reliable access to airports is important since the cost of missing a flight is likely to be high. First, the determinants of the preferred arrival times at airports are analyzed. Second, the willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in access travel time, early and late arrival time at the airport, and the probability to miss a flight are estimated, using a stated choice experiment. The results indicate that the WTPs are relatively high. Third, a model is developed to calculate the cost of variable travel times for representative air travelers going by car, taking into account travel time cost, scheduling cost and the cost of missing a flight using empirical travel time data. In this model, the value of reliability for air travelers is derived taking “anticipating departure time choice” into account, meaning that travelers determine their departure time from home optimally. Results of the numerical exercise show that the cost of access travel time variability for business travelers are between 0% and 30% of total access travel cost, and for non-business travelers between 0% and 25%. These numbers depend strongly on the time of the day.     

Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic using ERP traffic data

Singapore’s Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system involves time-variable charges which are intended to spread the morning traffic peak. The charges are revised every three months and thus induce regular motorists to re-think their travel decisions. ERP traffic data, captured by the system, provides a valuable source of information for studying motorists’ travel behaviour. This paper proposes a new modelling methodology for using these data to forecast short-term impacts of rate adjustment on peak period traffic volumes. Separate models are developed for different categories of vehicles which are segmented according to their demand elasticity with respect to road pricing. A method is proposed for estimating the maximum likelihood value of preferred arrival time (PAT) for each vehicle’s arrivals at a particular ERP gantry under different charging conditions. Iterative procedures are used in both model calibration and application. The proposed approach was tested using traffic datasets recorded in 2003 at a gantry located on Singapore’s Central Expressway (CTE). The model calibration and validation show satisfactory results.