基于变发电电压功率变换器的海上钻井平台风力发电系统硬件结构的研究

本论文阐述了海上钻井平台的风力发电系统的具体硬件方案和主要设备选型,设计了基于变发电电压功率变换器的（Switched Reluctance Generator,简称SRG）风力发电系统,弥补了现有的风力发电系统的不足。     

基于数值和实验方法的非透浪梳式防波堤的水动力学特性研究

采用源函数造波法建立了三维数值波浪水槽模型,模拟了不同随机种子数(NW)下的随机波浪,与目标谱对比的结果证明当NW=200时,采用文中的数值方法可以得到较好的模拟精度;建立了随机波浪对一种非透浪梳式防波堤作用的数值模型,通过数值模拟结果和实验结果的比较,验证了该数值模型的有效性。对该非透浪的梳式防波堤的水力学特性进行了实验研究,并应用上述数值方法对结构的所受冲击波浪力机理进行了分析,数值结果证明在该结构的危险水位下,由结构的翼板和胸墙下底板所构成的异型空腔结构是导致翼板上产生较大冲击压力的主要因素。在此基础上,为了消减翼板的冲击压力,提出一种改进的结构型式,最后对该改进结构的翼板上波浪力特性和波浪反射系数进行了实验研究。     

新型竖直轴海洋能发电设备叶片的优化与仿真

为深入了解新型竖直轴海洋能发电设备的性能,对其叶片结构的流场特性和设备在流场中的动力收集特性进行仿真研究.建立不同结构叶片和不同数量叶片的二维模型,通过仿真计算,得到不同结构叶片的流场状态,以及叶片数分别为3、4和6时设备的合力和转矩大小.研究结果表明:在矩形叶片上开长方形孔能明显改善叶片后方的涡流,提高叶片的性能;当入口速度不变时,设备所受合力和转矩会随叶片数量的增加而增大;当叶片数量不变时,设备所受合力和转矩会随入口速度的增加而增大.研究结果可为新型竖直轴海洋能发电设备的结构设计与优化提供参考.     

基于组合预测模型的铁路货运量预测研究

为了进一步提高铁路货运量的预测精度,提出基于乘积季节模型与引入注意力机制(Attention Mechanism)的长短期记忆(Long Short-Term Memory)模型的组合预测模型。首先建立乘积季节模型、LSTM模型与引入注意力机制的LSTM模型,然后利用误差修正法分别将2种LSTM模型与乘积季节模型组合起来进行预测,最后将预测结果分别与单一模型进行对比。采用2005年至2018年全国铁路月度货运量进行预测分析,结果表明2种组合预测模型的预测精度均高于单一预测模型的预测精度,其中基于乘积季节模型与引入注意力机制的LSTM模型的组合预测模型精度最高,具有研究和实用价值。     

Link travel time inference using entry/exit information of trips on a network

This paper studies link travel time estimation using entry/exit time stamps of trips on a steady-state transportation network. We propose two inference methods based on the likelihood principle, assuming each link associates with a random travel time. The first method considers independent and Gaussian distributed link travel times, using the additive property that trip time has a closed-form distribution as the summation of link travel times. We particularly analyze the mean estimates when the variances of trip time estimates are known with a high degree of precision and examine the uniqueness of solutions. Two cases are discussed in detail: one with known paths of all trips and the other with unknown paths of some trips. We apply the Gaussian mixture model and the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm to deal with the latter. The second method splits trip time proportionally among links traversed to deal with more general link travel time distributions such as log-normal. This approach builds upon an expected log-likelihood function which naturally leads to an iterative procedure analogous to the EM algorithm for solutions. Simulation tests on a simple nine-link network and on the Sioux Falls network respectively indicate that the two methods both perform well. The second method (i.e., trip splitting approximation) generally runs faster but with larger errors of estimated standard deviations of link travel times.     

多模型交通流预测优化

根据当前交通流预测模型发展的情况,提出采用卡尔曼滤波模型、指数平滑模型和非参数回归模型进行预测融合的方法,该方法在提高系统预测速度的基础上也能提高预测精度,因此,具有很好的推广价值.     

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首先运用建立在突变理论上的汽车购买热潮分析模型，分析了私人汽车购买量与人均国民收入及交通政策之间的关系，以及在何种条件下才会出现汽车的购买高潮，并以北京市的实际数据为实例做了具体分析.然后用分形方法建立了北京私人汽车拥有量的预测模型，并预测了北京市未来三年的私人汽车拥有量，将最近一年的预测数据与实际数据做了比较，得出可行性.     

Improved Urban Inhabitant Travel Demand Model and Its Application

Transport planners often need to forecast the influence of the transport policies on travel demand, e.g., construction of a new transport alternative, changing public transit fares, or imposing road pricing schemes. Stated preference (SP) surveys are frequently adopted by transport planners for the analysis of the impact of transport policies on travel demand. However, evidence suggests that preferences derived from SP surveys are contingent on context, which indicates that trip makers may show asymmetric preferences for different levels of services. The objective of this article is to propose an alternative conceptual framework for travel demand analysis. It is expected that travel behavior may be heterogeneous across trip makers; response (or parameter of) to the level of service is defined as a function of the attributes of the trip makers. It is also aimed to propose some urban transportation policies based on a new type of discrete choice model. In an empirical demonstration, the panel data obtained from commuters in Lanzhou, China, are used, and support is obtained for several predictions on why behavioral intentions are, or are not, implemented.     

生成模型在中心城市的应用实践

本文从城市的区域交通节点考虑,把城市分为中心城市、资源型城市和一般城市.以中心城市土地利用特性和现状人口为基础,采用曲线估计的方法建立了交通生成预测模型.利用辽宁省锦州市、盘锦市和辽阳市的交通数据,对模型进行了验证,结果表明模型能够较好反映规划年城市土地利用特征变化所带来的各种交通需求特性的差异.     

高速公路隧道安全预警应用案例分析

针对高速公路隧道断面大、地质复杂多变、不可预见性因素多等特点,结合绍兴至诸暨高速隧道施工,对隧道地质风险等级进行划分,建立地质预报及监控量测等有效的安全预警机制,加强作业协调,及时数据处理,对隧道施工险情进行有效的预警,保证了隧道施工期的安全,可为类似工程安全预警提供借鉴.