Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures from traffic expectations can be accommodated.

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

基于实测的桁式组合拱桥荷载偏载系数统计分析

近年来,桁式组合拱桥病害成因分析中,其活载横向偏载效应是否存在一直是工程技术人员和研究者重点研究的问题之一。结合桁式组合拱桥5座桥梁的荷载试验,利用桥梁静力荷载试验有关偏载加载工况测试数据,对桁式组合拱桥的偏载系数规律、特点进行分析和总结,相关结果可供类似桥梁设计参考。     

列车运行工况对电力变压器直流偏磁影响的仿真分析

地铁中存在的杂散电流会对地表电位分布产生影响,而如果周边存在电力变压器时,变压器中流过的直流电流会造成变压器发生直流偏磁,然而,目前关于地铁地表电位分布对周边变压器直流偏磁影响研究较少,为此考虑了列车上下行4种不同运行状况,搭建地铁地表电位仿真模型,并计算相应情况下变压器励磁电流畸变率,得出上下行列车同时出站时,对变压...     

Investigating the nature and impact of reporting bias in road crash data

This paper investigates the nature, and impact of the reporting bias associated with the police-reported crash data on inferences made using this data. In doing so, we merge a detailed emergency room data and police-reported crash data for a specific region in Denmark. To disentangle potentially common observable and unobservable factors that affect drivers’ injury severity risk and their crash reporting behavior, we formulate a bivariate ordered-response probit model of injury severity risk and crash reporting propensity. To empirically identify the reporting bias in this joint model, we exploit an exogenous police reform that particularly affects some specific municipalities of the region under consideration. The empirical analysis reveals substantial reporting bias in the commonly used police-reported road crash data. This non-random sample selection associated with the police-reported crash data leads to biased estimates on the effect of some of the explanatory variables in injury severity analysis. For instance, estimates based on the police-reported crash data substantially underestimate the effectiveness of seat belt use in reducing drivers’ injury severity risk.     

大跨黄土隧道下穿公路施工技术

在上新庄隧道出口下穿既有公路施工中,根据隧道出口位置和地质情况,优化了隧道进洞方案和洞内施工方法,同时调整了初期支护参数,有效地控制了黄土隧道沉降和变形,降低了施工成本,同时也积累了黄土隧道下穿既有公路的施工经验。     

基于目标拓扑参照图的雷达航迹抗差关联方法

针对雷达系统偏差影响下数据关联容易错误的问题,提出一种基于目标拓扑参照图的数据抗差关联新方法,该方法首先将目标进行聚类减少关联复杂度,再对聚类目标拓扑参照图经过平移、旋转和尺度等变换进行关联匹配,达到目标关联一致性的目的。仿真结果表明了该方法具有较高的关联精度和鲁棒性。     

流固耦合作用下浅埋偏压隧道扩建方式研究

为研究渗流条件下或流固耦合作用下的偏压隧道扩建方式,以成渝高速中梁山宋家沟1 号隧道为工程背景,针对渗流作用下既有浅埋偏压隧道的左侧小净距扩建、右侧小净距扩建、左侧原位扩建、右侧原位扩建4 种扩建方式进行数值分析研究,分析各种扩建方式下的拱顶沉降、围岩收敛、围岩应力、初期支护内力、围岩孔隙水压力折减量等,通过与隧道扩建施工监测资料进行对比, 发现数值模拟结果与施工监测极其吻合,验证了计算结果的可靠性。通过对4 种扩建方式进行对比分析认为: 1)采用小净距扩建时的围岩收敛变形、围岩竖向应力等均小于原位扩建; 2)从针对地下水资源保护的角度出发,采用左侧小净距扩建时对地下水资源的保护效果明显优于其他3 种扩挖方式; 3)扩建隧道围岩孔隙水压力的折减在各个方向均呈现出明显的梯度变化,隧道施工过程中的涌水量大部分来自扩建隧道上部围岩。     

豆子坪隧道洞口偏压沉降开裂及高边坡滑塌处治

以常德至吉首高速公路豆子坪隧道工程为背景,介绍豆子坪隧道左线吉首端洞口隧道偏压沉降、开裂及高边坡滑塌产生的原因,详述对该隧道偏压沉降及高边坡滑塌的处治措施,以期为其他隧道类似病害的处治提供参考。     

隧道偏压明洞在不同洞顶回填倾角下的受力分析

为分析偏压明洞衬砌在不同洞顶回填倾角下的受力情况,建立荷载-结构模型,对不同洞顶回填倾角下偏压明洞衬砌的受力和安全性进行计算分析,可得出该结构的受力情况,为隧道偏压明洞衬砌的受力计算提供参考。