交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析

运用投入产出模型定量分析了公路交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。拉动作用主要表现为公路建设投资所产生的直接、间接和诱导经济效益,其总和为公路建设投资的乘数效应,可分别用产出乘数、GDP乘数和就业乘数来测算。分析测算了我国近年来公路建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。估算结果表明,(1)公路建筑业对其他部门的波及影响程度大于各部门的平均影响水平;(2)拉动作用在1998年最为显著,自1999年开始,公路投资拉动经济增长的百分比呈逐年上升的趋势。     

Analysing Demand for Suburban Trips: A Mixed RP/SP Model with Latent Variables and Interaction Effects

We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present. The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion, in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service.     

Direction dependent prices in public transport: A good idea? The back haul pricing problem for a monopolistic public transport firm

Markets for transport are often characterised by unequal demand in both directions: every morning during peak hours the trains are crowded while moving towards the direction of large cities, whereas they may be almost empty in the other direction. In this paper we discuss the implications of these imbalances for price setting of transport firms. From the viewpoint of economic theory, two regimes can be distinguished: one where – owing to price discrimination – the flows are equal, and one where unequal flows are the result. Special attention is paid to the case where the transport firm does not apply price discrimination, as is the case with most railway firms in Europe. We find that in the case of substantial joint costs, the introduction of price discrimination not only leads to an increase of profits, but also to positive effects on consumer surplus. This result differs from the standard result in the literature on industrial economics. The standard result purports that with linear demand functions price discrimination has a negative impact on the welfare of the average consumer and that this negative impact dominates the positive effect on profits of the producer.     

Vicious or virtuous circles? Exploring the vulnerability of drivers to break low urban speed limits

Levels of support for 20 mph limits in Great Britain are consistently high. However, these positive attitudes are not translating into similarly positive behaviour changes in terms of complying with these new speed limits. Recent research from the authors studied the complex relationship between support and compliance, with qualitative findings suggesting that copycat driving could create a ‘vicious circle effect’ that leads to increased levels of non-compliance. However it is also possible that an alternative ‘virtuous circle’ effect may emerge from the high levels of societal support for 20 mph limits pressurising drivers to comply with speed limits. In this work the authors investigated these issues and we report on data and analysis of a large scale survey of drivers and residents undertaken in Great Britain. We explain the origins of vicious and virtuous circles in driver behaviour and study the data from the survey, offering an analysis of attitudes and claimed behaviours that has implications for policy-makers and professionals working with low urban speed limits. We discuss the issues for speed limit enforcement, making reference to the public relations ‘battle’ for public opinion. It is concluded that normative compliance, triggered by community and other campaigning, may be the most realistic mechanism for countering the difficulties of government funding in promoting compliance.     

Estimating the robustness of questionnaire results: lessons from a mixed-mode survey of expectations for tele-working and road-based business travel

The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.

Activity patterns,time use,and travel of millennials: a generation in transition?

Millennials, defined in this study as those born between 1979 and 2000, became the largest population segment in the United States in 2015. Compared to recent previous generations, they have been found to travel less, own fewer cars, have lower driver’s licensure rates, and use alternative modes more. But to what extent will these differences in behaviour persist as millennials move through various phases of the lifecycle? To address this question, this paper presents the results of a longitudinal analysis of the 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey data series. In early adulthood, younger millennials (born 1988–1994) are found to spend significantly more time in-home than older millennials (born 1979–1985), which indicates that there are substantial differences in activity-time use patterns across generations in early adulthood. Older millennials are, however, showing activity-time use patterns similar to their prior generation counterparts as they age, although some differences – particularly in time spent as a car driver – persist. Millennials appear to exhibit a lag in adopting the activity patterns of predecessor generations due to delayed lifecycle milestones (e.g. completing their education, getting jobs, marrying, and having children) and lingering effects of the economic recession, suggesting that travel demand will resume growth in the future.     

Failure mode and effects analysis of dual levelling valve airspring suspensions on truck dynamics

Failure mode and effects analysis are performed for a dual levelling valve pneumatic suspension to determine the effect of suspension failure on tractor–semi-trailer dynamics, using a detailed model of suspension pneumatics coupled with a truck dynamic model. A key element of failure analysis in suspensions with one or two levelling valves is determining the effect on the vehicle body roll when one or more failures occur. The failure modes considered are mainly the suspension pneumatic components, including clogged levelling valve, bent control rod, disabled lever arm, and punctured or leaking connectors and pipes. The pneumatic suspension is modelled in AMESim, with critical parameters established through component testing. Upon validating the AMESim component model experimentally, the pneumatic suspension model is integrated into TruckSim for studying the consequences of suspension failure on truck dynamics. The simulation results indicate that the second levelling valve in a dual-valve arrangement brings a certain amount of failure redundancy to the system, in the sense that when one side fails, the other side can compensate for the failure. Equipping the trailer with dual levelling valves brings an additional stabilising effect to the vehicle in the event of tractor suspension failure.     

襄渝铁路流水河右线大桥钢吊箱施工力学效应分析

以襄渝铁路流水河右线大桥4号墩为工程背景，运用有限元法对钢吊箱施工过程进行力学效应分析。主要研究钢吊箱施工过程的稳定状况和变形状态，为施工提供数据支持，优化施工控制方案。同时对钢吊箱进行试验研究，试验结果与计算结果基本相符，说明计算模型正确。所得结论可为实际工程的计算和设计提供一定的理论参考。     

《国际安全与环境无害化拆船公约》制定进展与对我国的影响分析

文中分析了《国际安全与环境无害化拆船公约草案》的制定背景与进展，简要介绍了公约的内容与基本要求，介绍了国内拆船业的现状，在此基础上分析了公约生效后对我国相关行业可能产生的影响，并提出了我国在公约后续制定过程中所应采取的态度建议。     

轻车跳动影响调度集中正常使用的解决方案

长春轻轨一期工程信号系统采用25Hz相敏轨道电路,运营初期出现轻车跳动现象,影响行车安全,并使调度集中系统车次号跟踪功能失效。简要分析轻车跳动产生的原因,重点阐述解决轻车跳动的方案。