Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

Energy use in passenger transport in OECD countries: Changes since 1970

This paper analyzes some of the changes that took place in the structure of energy use for passenger travel in industrialized countries. Data is presented on energy use and travel activity for the four major modes of travel — automobile, bus, rail and air — for eight OECD countries: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. We use the Laspeyres and Divisia indices to analyze the causes of the change in energy use between 1970 and 1987. The total change in energy use for travel is explained by changes in domestic passenger transport volumes, the mix of modes of travel, and the energy intensities of each mode. We have found two important effects that have a fundamental impact on energy use for travel since 1970. First, shifts among modes of transport towards more energy-intensive ones and large increases in volumes of travel (measured in passenger-kilometers) increased energy use for travel in many OECD countries, often more rapidly than the overall growth in GDP. Second, energy intensities, measured in mJ/passenger-kilometer, of passenger transport fell only in a few countries between 1970 and 1987. Even though individual automobiles have become more energy-efficient, greater size, power, and weight, worsening traffic conditions in Japan and Europe, and fewer people in cars restrained or even offset efficiency improvements. Particularly notable are the increases in intensities in Japan and Germany. The most important exception to this trend was the United States, but the intensities of land-based travel remain higher there than in most other countries. These findings lead to a pessimistic outlook for future energy use for travel. After all, if little or no energy was saved during the decades of high fuel prices, what can be expected in the 1990s?     

Modelling the potential for cycling in access trips to bus,train and metro in Rio de Janeiro

Most studies that address the integration of cycling and public transport (PT) focus on developed countries and deal with multi-modal bicycle-train trips. Little is known about the integration of cycling and other main modes such as bus and metro, especially in developing countries, where entirely different socio-economic and trip making conditions prevail. The aim of this study is to model the propensity of current PT users to shift to the bicycle in access trips to bus stops, train and metro stations in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Interviews were conducted to collect data on the socio-economic characteristics of the interviewee, trip and spatial characteristics and self-reported barriers and motivators for bicycle use. Two binary logit models were estimated to predict the main factors affecting the propensity to use a bicycle as feeder mode to PT. The results show that socio-economic characteristics as well as barriers and motivators are important factors to explain propensity for bike and ride. The barriers’ model reveals that personal constraints, living too close to the PT boarding point, current parking conditions and public safety play a role. For the motivators’ model, changing home location, owning a bicycle, implementation of cycle ways and improvement in parking conditions are explanatory. Policy recommendations are formulated to increase bicycle ownership and improve cycling infrastructure.     

Social inclusivity through public transportation: a strategic approach to improve quality of life in developing countries

Welfare services such as healthcare and education are commonly recognised as determinants of physical quality of life indices during the early phases of development in the third world. In order to benefit from these services, it is important that the general public have the mobility means to access welfare provision centres. However, very low vehicle ownership under the conditions of low per‐capita incomes and large shares of population living in deep rural areas prevent the masses from accessing such services, thereby retarding the process of social development, which is reflected in the very poor physical quality of life indices in low‐income countries. Public transportation could offer a viable and affordable solution to this apparent ambivalence. It could permit mobility for poor masses in spite of low per‐capita vehicle ownership enabled by the national income levels. The present research demonstrates this strategic niche through an econometric examination of the evolution of the physical quality of life indices such as maternal mortality, infant mortality and literacy as against the healthcare, education and affordable mobility proxies in post‐independent Sri Lanka. The country, which was then referred to as Ceylon, is often cited as a rare example of achieving social inclusion and reduced marginalisation and thereby a high social welfare standing, in spite of relatively poor per‐capita income levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of updating techniques in transferability analysis of work trip mode choice models in developing countries

This study analyzes the performances of updating techniques in transferability of mode choice models in developing countries. A model specification, estimated in Ho Chi Minh City, was transferred to Phnom Penh. Naïve transfer and four updating methods associated with small sized samples were used in the transfer process and were evaluated based on statistical perspective and predictive ability. The study also illustrates the problems faced in model transferability development, due to the lack of available and suitable data in Phnom Penh. This lack is strongly related to different methods and structures applied in collecting the data. Simplified approaches to the difficulties are proposed in the study. The results show that updating ASCs, updating both ASCs and scale parameter, and use of combined transfer estimators all produce significant improvement, both statistically and in predictability, in updating the model. The last two methods have proven to be superior to the first method, owing to the inclusion of transfer bias considerations in the estimations. However, small data samples should not have large transfer bias when using combined transfer estimators. It is also concluded that naïvely transferring a model is not recommended, and Bayesian updating should be avoided when transfer bias exists. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis

This paper investigates the determinants of new vehicle registrations in European Union (EU) countries by focusing on four particular segments – passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles. A panel cointegration analysis for a panel of 13 EU countries during the period from January 1999 to August 2010 shows that new vehicle sales have long-run cointegration relations with vehicle prices, consumer confidence, income, interest rates, fuel prices, industrial production, and trade. More effective factors in determining new vehicle sales appear to be trade, interest rates, and industrial production.     

Workshop 6: The public agenda: What is working and what is missing

Workshop 6 topics covered social inclusion, the informal transport sector, transport in developing countries and sustainability. The strong connections and complimentary goals were noted, where solutions to social exclusion and greenhouse gas reduction can both be realised with good transport and urban planning. There is an opportunity for developing countries to avoid the transport mistakes in many developed countries, such as car dependence. This will involve the development of infrastructure that offers accessible public transport to the majority of people, providing resources to the informal transport system and integrating this with public transport. The workshop considered specific issues such as rural transport, new technology, car tolls to subsidise public transport, safety issues with informal transport and the failure to evaluate the longer-term impacts of many major transport infrastructure developments. Recommendations were made in relation to research and policy and future Thredbo topics.     

Characteristics of household activity and travel patterns in the Mumbai metropolitan region

Activity-based modelling approaches require a typical survey instrument which can collect the finer details of activities of each individual over both time and space. This paper focuses on the design of a new survey instrument called an activity-travel diary; examines its method of administration; and analyses activity-travel behaviour in the context of developing countries. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region in India is selected as the study area. With the aim of understanding the activities of each individual over a period of time, a pilot survey was conducted in a continuous time frame for a period of 15 days, followed by a main survey. The analysis of data collected by the instrument reveals some interesting facts regarding the relationships between socioeconomic attributes, activities and trip making behaviour. Identification of interactions among households and other members were also facilitated by the newly designed diary, which is not a well-versed topic for research in the context of a developing economy like Mumbai's.     

Does Bus Rapid Transit Influence Urban Land Development and Property Values: A Review of the Literature

Abstract

Despite the proliferation of bus rapid transit (BRT) systems over the past few decades across developed and developing world cities, the impacts across these systems on the urban spatial development and property markets have not been comprehensively studied. The current paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by reviewing the methodologies, underlying theories, and findings presented in the individual academic studies on BRT land-use and price impacts, mostly drawing on those that have focused on Latin American and Asian systems. The review shows that the land-use and value impacts have been less uniform across systems compared to such operational performance metrics as speed and travel time improvements. While predominantly relying on cross-sectional modeling techniques, the approaches used to evaluate land-use changes induced by the transit systems are not uniform either, with only some studies explicitly measuring changes in types of land use as opposed to simply land or rental price. The study also concludes that more rigorous evaluation is needed as to whether the BRT systems have improved accessibility for the populations that inhabited the corridors previously or whether, instead, the desired land value increases have in fact resulted in significant population displacement.