Crying wolf: Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders

This article examines the evacuation behavior of residents in two South Carolina communities, Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach, during the 1996 hurricane season. Two hurricanes that approached South Carolina but hit in North Carolina allowed us to study the impact of repeated “false alarms”; (evacuations ordered based on expectations of a hurricane landfall that proved to be wrong). Differences in evacuation behavior, specific information and concerns prompting evacuation, and the reliability of information sources between hurricane events are examined to determine the impact of false alarms on the credibility of warning systems. Data were derived from a face‐to‐face survey of residents 2 weeks after Hurricane Fran in September 1996. We found that the role of official advisories was more limited than reported in previous research as people sought information on more diverse sets of concerns in their decision making. Reliance on the media and the Weather Channel, in particular, for storm characteristics and advisories was an important factor in evacuation decision making during both hurricane events. The perceived lack of reliability of gubernatorial warnings coupled with dependence on the media suggests that residents find other sources of information more personally relevant. Thus, while residents do not find that officials are “crying wolf,”; they are searching elsewhere for information to assess their own risk—what does it mean to me if there is a wolf? This increased attention toward individual differences in perceived threat may become more pronounced in future evacuations from hurricanes.     

地铁区间隧道的紧急安全疏散标志系统

以北京地铁复八线为例,论述地铁消防安全工程区间隧道紧急逃生疏散系统的设计。经过实际检测和验收,说明在区间隧道中采用BXF9-C2集中控制型应急标志系统,能较好地解决区间隧道的安全逃生问题,提高区间隧道紧急疏散的安全性,同时提出与区间通风排烟协调一致的模式。     

大鼠脑内血肿部分抽吸对红细胞SOD活性的影响

为探讨脑内血肿部分抽吸对血肿触发自由基反应的影响，利用立体定向技术制作脑内血肿大鼠模型并模拟血肿抽吸，观察各组红细胞超氧化物歧化酶（ＳＯＤ）活性的变化。结果显示血肿部分抽吸显著降低红细胞ＳＯＤ活性（Ｐ＜０．０５），提示血肿部分抽吸抑制大鼠体内的自由基反应，其机制可能与减轻血肿周围组织和毛细血管的损伤有关。     

Hurricane evacuation demand models with a focus on use for prediction in future events

Although substantial literature exists on understanding hurricane evacuation behavior, few studies have developed models that can be used for predicting evacuation rates in future events. For this paper, we develop new ordered probit models for evacuation using survey data collected in the hurricane-prone state of North Carolina in 2011 and 2012. Since all covariates in the models are available from the census or based on location, the new models can be applied to predict evacuation rates for any future hurricane. The out-of-sample predictive power of the new models are evaluated at the individual household level using cross validation, and the aggregated level using available data from Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Isabel (2003) and Hurricane Floyd (1999). Model results are also compared with an existing participation rate model, and a logistic regression model available from the literature. Results at the individual household level suggests approximately 70% of households’ evacuation behavior will be predicted correctly. Errors are evenly divided between false positives and false negatives, and with accuracy increasing to 100% as the percentage of people who actually evacuate goes to zero or all and decreasing to about 50% when the population is divided and about half of all households actually evacuate. Aggregate results suggest the new models compare favorably to the available ones, with average aggregate evacuation rate errors of five percentage points.     

装有侧向疏散平台的地铁区闻乘客疏散

结合广州地铁3、4号线装有侧向疏散平台的情况，对在设备故障和紧急情况下的区间乘客疏散进行研究，探讨乘客步行、本线来车驳运和邻线来车驳运三种疏散方式的组织办法，提出装有侧向疏散平台的地铁区间乘客疏散方案。     

洋山深水港区前沿施工期强淤分析

依据沉积物取样分析结果及有关资料的分析,对港区阶段强淤进行了研究,结果认为港区后方的小洋山~镬盖塘汊道封堵对地形演变的影响,主要限于码头前沿的局部范围,其地形的稳定性主要受控于主通道的水流状况,工程竣工后,主通道的涨、落潮量及水体含沙量应基本不变。     

烟大铁路轮渡渡船救生系统设计

回顾了近年来中国法规对客滚船救生设备要求的衍变,介绍了烟大铁路轮渡渡船救生系统的设计优化的实例.     

Online calibration of an integrated framework for information‐based evacuation operations

This study seeks to online calibrate the parameters of aggregate evacuee behavior models used in a behavior‐consistent information‐based control module for determining information strategies for real‐time evacuation operations. It enables the deployment of an operational framework for mass evacuation that integrates three aspects underlying an evacuation operation: demand (evacuee behavior), supply (network management), and disaster characteristics. To attain behavior‐consistency, the control module factors evacuees' likely responses to the disseminated information in determining information‐based control strategies. Hence, the ability of the behavior models to predict evacuees' likely responses is critical to the effectiveness of traffic routing by information strategies. The mixed logit structure is used for the aggregate behavior models to accommodate the behavioral heterogeneity across the population. An online calibration problem is proposed to calibrate the random parameters in the behavior models by using the least square estimator to minimize the gap between the predicted network flows and unfolding traffic dynamics. Background traffic, an important but rarely studied issue for modeling evacuation traffic, is also accounted for in the proposed problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the importance of the calibration problem for addressing the system consistency issues and integrating the demand, supply, and disaster characteristics for more efficient evacuation operations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

奥运应急交通疏散预案评价指标体系研究

在研究应急交通疏散特点的基础上,结合2008年北京奥运的预计情况,提出了奥运应急交通疏散预案评价指标体系.从大量评价指标中筛选出疏散时间、疏散路网畅通可靠性、平均疏散距离、救援到位率、避难所服务水平及疏散代价等6项评价指标,选用TOPSIS法对预案进行综合评价,得出了较为合理的评价结果.     

Emergency Evacuation Model and Algorithms

A scientific and effective emergency evacuation plan plays an important role in improving the event reaction ability of the urban traffic system, as well as, saves rescue time and reduces property losses. Evacuation route construction and network distribution in each network junction are vital for evacuation planning problems. An optimal objective based on the shortest emergency time is established and the optimal solution is acquired using the Pontryagin minimum principle. The evacuation route construction algorithm and traffic flow assignment algorithm in each junction are employed to deliver the traffic flow in the evacuation area to a safe region rapidly and safely. The idea of feedback is introduced in the execution using real-time information to adjust and update the evacuation plan. The simulation result shows that the proposed model and algorithm can be effectively carried out in an emergency evacuation.