Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.     

CFRP加固损伤钢板的拉伸及疲劳性能研究

文章基于Dugdale模型理论提出CFRP加固含裂纹钢板加固量的计算方法。通过虚拟裂纹闭合法建立模型来模拟塑性钢板的破坏过程,并完成相关试验,验证了CFRP加固含裂纹钢板有效粘贴长度、有效粘贴宽度取值的有效性。同时利用Paris公式预估疲劳寿命,并结合相关试验数据,探究了CFRP加固对含裂纹钢板疲劳寿命的提高作用。研究表明,有效粘贴长度、有效粘贴宽度的理论取值有效;通过CFRP双侧加固竖裂纹、斜裂纹钢板构件可分别使其疲劳寿命得到显著提高。     

The effect of crowding on public transit user travel behavior in a large-scale public transportation system through modeling daily variations

In this paper, the crowding effect in a transit vehicle is modeled in a time-expanded network that considers the daily variation in passenger flows. The study models the daily variation of in-vehicle crowding in a real large-scale transit system. A transit assignment for this real network is modeled and implemented by constructing a crowding cost function that follows the valuation of crowding and by using the reliable shortest path finding method. The direct application of the crowding model to a real network for the Utah Transit Authority indicates that crowd modeling with multi-user classes could influence public transportation system planning and affect the revenues of transit agencies. Moreover, the addition of the disutility factor, crowding, does not always appear to cause an increase in disutility for transit users.     

上海市历史城区震后应急救援路网评价与优化

随着我国城市化进程加快,自然灾害问题也日渐凸显,作为主要自然灾害之一的地震正在严重影响着我国城市的公共安全.城市交通系统是城市重要的生命线,因此研究震后城市应急救援道路网络连通可靠度具有重要的现实意义.历史城区由于其建筑多为老旧平房,抗震性能差,而且城区道路空间局促,在遭遇地震时路网更易堵塞.本文以上海豫园区域路网为例,基于瓦砾堆积模型对震后路段通行概率进行计算,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对路网节点连接可靠度进行计算,对震后路网路段单元和节点的可靠性进行评估,并在此基础上判别关键路段和优化应急医疗救援路径.     

A multi-objective optimization model for sustainable logistics facility location

This paper offers an exploratory study of sustainable facility location. The methodology, based on the classical uncapacitated facility location problem, provides decision makers with a multi-objective optimization model to determine the trade-off among economic, service and environmental considerations. Our results indicate that it may be desirable to open more facilities than optimal from a narrow economic perspective to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of transport and to improve service reliability.     

Improving train service reliability by applying an effective timetable robustness strategy

ABSTRACT

To avoid propagation of delays in dense railway timetables, it is important to ensure robustness. One strategy to improve robustness is to provide adequate amount of buffer times between trains. This study concerns how “scheduled minimum headways” should be determined in order to improve robustness in timetables. Scheduled minimum headways include technical minimum headway plus some buffer time. We propose a strategy to be implemented in timetables at the final stages of planning and prior to the operations. The main contributions of this study are 1) to propose a strategy where the size of the scheduled minimum headways is dependent on trains' travel times instead of a fixed-sized time slot and it is called “travel time dependent scheduled minimum headways” or TTDSMH, 2) to evaluate the effects of the new strategy on heterogeneity, speed, and the number of trains in timetables, 3) to show that a simple strategy can improve robustness without imposing major changes in timetables. The strategy is implemented in an Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for timetabling and tested for some problem instances from Sweden. Results show that TTDSMH can improve robustness. The proposed strategy can be applied in intelligent transportation tools for railway timetabling.     

Effectiveness of travel time reliability indicators in the light of the assessment of dynamic managed lane strategy

ABSTRACT

The aim of traffic management is to ensure a high quality of service for a maximum number of users by decreasing congestion and increasing safety. Uncertainty of travel times decreases the quality of service and leads end users to modify their plans regardless of the average travel time. Indicators describing travel time reliability are being developed and should be used in the future both for the optimization and for the assessment of active traffic management operations. This article discusses the efficiency of certain reliability indicators in an ex-post assessment of a traffic management strategy. Ex-post assessment is based on an observational before–after study. As some factors other than the studied management strategy may intervene between the two periods, and as most reliability indicators require knowledge of the full travel time distribution and not only its average, a methodology is developed for the identification of the impact of these exogenous factors on the whole distribution. Many reliability indicators are split into different parts allowing the identification of the part due to the management strategy impact. The methodology is tested numerically on a managed lane operation consisting of Hard Shoulder Running (HSR) at rush hour on a section of a French motorway. The variation of some reliability indicators appears misleading, whereas the splitting of the indicators increases our understanding of the strategy and highlights its impact. The paper gives the reliability assessment of the HSR field test and discusses different reliability indicators to identify their potential performances and shortcomings.     

Robust traffic assignment model: Formulation,solution algorithms and empirical application

ABSTRACT

The deterministic traffic assignment problem based on Wardrop's first criterion of traffic network utilization has been widely studied in the literature. However, the assumption of deterministic travel times in these models is restrictive, given the large degree of uncertainty prevalent in urban transportation networks. In this context, this paper proposes a robust traffic assignment model that generalizes Wardrop's principle of traffic network equilibrium to networks with stochastic and correlated link travel times and incorporates the aversion of commuters to unreliable routes.

The user response to travel time uncertainty is modeled using the robust cost (RC) measure (defined as a weighted combination of the mean and standard deviation of path travel time) and the corresponding robust user equilibrium (UE) conditions are defined. The robust traffic assignment problem (RTAP) is subsequently formulated as a Variational Inequality problem. To solve the RTAP, a Gradient Projection algorithm is proposed, which involves solving a series of minimum RC path sub-problems that are theoretically and practically harder than deterministic shortest path problems. In addition, an origin-based heuristic is proposed to enhance computational performance on large networks. Numerical experiments examine the computational performance and convergence characteristics of the exact algorithm and establish the accuracy and efficiency of the origin-based heuristic on various real-world networks. Finally, the proposed RTA model is applied to the Chennai road network using empirical data, and its benefits as a normative benchmark are quantified through comparisons against the standard UE and System Optimum (SO) models.     

基于发动机台架考核方法的气缸盖高周疲劳特性研究

依据发动机台架考核规范,运用疲劳强度理论,对某铸铁气缸盖进行高周疲劳强度评估。明确温度和应力随考核工况改变的变化行为,研究气缸盖各区域受工作载荷的影响状况,为缸盖寿命评估模型提供载荷边界。结合疲劳理论,在考虑材料修正的基础上进行了疲劳特性分析和损伤状况分析。分析表明,气缸盖各区域的疲劳安全系数均大于1,视为安全,但冷却钻孔区域的安全裕度较小。     

FRP加固已腐蚀混凝土梁的抗疲劳耐久性研究

介绍了碳纤维布（CFRP）加固腐蚀钢筋混凝土的梁静载和疲劳试验过程,探讨了加固方式和纤维布性能对疲劳寿命的影响。试验对象为6根FRP加固腐蚀梁、1根腐蚀未加固梁和1根标准梁（未腐蚀未加固）;加固方式分别是CFRP缠绕加固梁和FRP在梁底抗弯加固且缠绕纤维布;试验过程中3根梁作静载试验,5根梁作疲劳试验。试验结果表明：FRP加固腐蚀梁的静载极限承载力比标准梁提高37％～38％;加固腐蚀梁的疲劳寿命是未加固梁的2～6倍,但低于标准梁。