船舶轴系扭振计算中若干问题的研究

对船舶轴系扭振计算中最为主要的公式,平均指示压力、气体力所产生的干扰力矩、外阻尼等进行探讨和修正。完善了船舶轴系扭振计算,提高扭振计算的精度。对MAN B＆W 90MC型柴油机实例计算及实船测量结果表明,平均指示压力降低了5．3％,气体力所产生干扰力矩降低了3．1％,外阻尼降低了8．29％,而船舶轴系扭振应力的计算精度也相应地提高了3．23％。     

白噪声海浪激励下船舶非线性横摇运动的概率分析

应用求解FPK方程近似解的一种新理论研究白噪声激励下船舶非线性横摇运动的联合概率密度函数及稳定期望穿阈率.船舶随机横摇运动微分方程考虑到阻尼力与恢复力的非线性.新理论基于减少FPK方程的误差以获得参数化的联合概率密度函数.应用本理论易得一维积分表达的系统响应的概率特性,如联合概率密度函数及稳定期望穿阈率.近似解与精确解的比较结果表明:新理论在研究白噪声激励下船舶非线性横摇运动是非常有效的.     

斜风作用下风-车-桥非线性分析系统建立

为了从风作用方向的三维模拟和系统非线性2个角度实现风-车-桥系统的全三维高真实度模拟,首先建立斜风荷载处理方法,采用平均风分解理论对桥梁斜风进行分解,形成桥梁斜风荷载,把桥梁风作用方向模拟域由垂直于桥梁纵轴线的二维平面扩展到三维空间;采用矢量合成法则和线性插值方法,依据车辆位置函数确定桥上车辆任意位置和时刻的合成风速,并基于风洞试验获取车辆气动力系数,形成车辆斜风荷载。然后基于已建立的非线性分析系统,融合斜风荷载处理方法,构建斜风作用下的风-车-桥全三维非线性分析系统,并实现动态可视化。最后采用建立的分析系统,对系列风偏角工况下的桥梁空间动力响应和车辆安全进行分析和评价。结果表明：斜风作用下,桥上车辆事故指标值及桥梁位移响应随着风偏角增大总体上均呈现先减小后增大趋势,且极值均出现在非90°的锐角区;基于风向垂直于桥跨方向的假定所进行的桥梁设计和车辆安全性评价结果偏于不安全。     

水下结构物舱壁振动控制的结构参数优化研究

舱壁结构参数选择对舱壁振动性能有直接影响。为减小舱壁振动,采用有限元法,选择舱壁板厚度、加强筋数量、加强筋截面大小为变化的结构参数,分析振动随激振力频率、激振力作用方向、舱壁结构参数的变化规律,得到在动载荷作用下,舱壁振动的均方法向速度频响曲线,并以此为依据,设计了潜艇舱壁的结构形式和结构参数。优化的结果可以为舱壁结构参数选择提供理论依据。     

任意随机序列关于随机选择系统的一类强极限定理

主要研究任意随机序列在随机选择系统中的随机条件概率其调和平均的强极限定理。在证明中采用了一种把网微分法与条件矩母函数相结合应用于随机选择系统强极限定理研究的一种途径。作为推论,得到m重非齐次马氏链的一个强极限定理,并将已有的结果加以推广。     

基于振动分析技术的潜艇舱段结构优化设计

舱段是潜艇的主要组成部分,为了降低潜艇结构的振动,在设计舱段时,需要选择合适的结构参数.舱段的基本结构是外壳板、纵骨和肋骨,选择外壳板的板厚、纵骨和肋骨的截面尺寸、纵骨和肋骨的数量作为设计参数,分别计算参数不同时舱段结构振动均方法向速度,根据计算结果,总结振动响应的谱峰频率、峰值与激振力频率、作用方向、舱段结构设计参数之间的关系,以此为基础,合理地设计舱段结构的参数和形式,达到了降低舱段结构振动水平的目的.     

Short-term liner shipping bunker procurement with swap contracts

The bunker price fluctuations in recent years have severely threatened the stability of liner shipping companies’ operations. As an efficient countermeasure, the swap contract is widely adopted throughout the liner shipping industry to hedge the procurement risk resulting from the bunker price fluctuation. This paper looks at the short-term liner shipping bunker procurement problem with swap contracts (BPPSC), aiming to optimally plan the amount of bunker purchased from the spot market and the amount hedged by the swap contract for several months ahead. This BPPSC is first formulated as a bunker procurement cost mean-variance minimization (MVM) model, and is subsequently solved using a tangible two-step approach developed in this study. In the first step, the movements of the swap contract price and the spot market price of the bunker are described using a calibrated multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (mGARCH) time series model. In the second step, the MVM model is approximated and solved by a price scenario tree constructed from the mGARCH time series model. A numerical example shows that the risk hedging strategy obtained can simultaneously control the bunker procurement cost as well as the procurement risk from price fluctuations. This article is a revised and expanded version of the abridged eight-page paper entitled ‘Optimal hedging for liner bunker procurement’ presented at ‘2015 International Conference on Logistics and Maritime Systems (LOGMS 2015)’, Hong Kong, 27–29 August 2015.     

线性回归模型的一个新的随机约束岭估计

研究带随机先验信息的线性回归模型，提出一种新的随机约束岭估计，得到新的估计在均方误差矩阵意义下优于混合估计、普通岭估计、随机混合估计（Yalian，2008）和另一随机混合估计（富月，2003）的充要条件。理论结果与数值实验都表明：新的估计在均方误差矩阵意义下的性能是优良的。     

平均集值非扩张映象的耦合不动点定理

在严格凸Banach空间中,将集值映象点值化,证明平均集值非扩张映象的耦合不动点的存在性与唯一性,得到了一种Mann迭代的收敛性。     

A simple algorithm for the estimation of road traffic space mean speeds from data available to most management centres

The control of the evolution of road traffic streams is highly related to productivity, safety, sustainability and, even, comfort. Although, nowadays, the findings from research efforts and the development of new technologies enable accurate traffic forecasts in almost any conditions, these calculations are usually limited by the data and the equipment available. Most traffic management centres depend on the data provided, at best, by double-loop detectors. These loops supply time means over different aggregation periods, which are indiscriminately used as the bases for subsequent estimations. Since space mean speeds are those needed in most applications (note the fundamental relationship between flow and density in traffic flow theory), most current practice begins with an error. This paper introduces a simple algorithm that the allows estimation of space mean speeds from the data provided by the loops without the need for any additional financial outlay, as long as the traffic in each time interval of aggregation is stationary and its speed distribution is log-normal. Specifically, it is focused on the calculation of the variance of the speeds with regard to the time mean, thus making possible to use the relationship between time mean speeds and space mean speeds defined by Rakha (2005). The results obtained with real data show that the algorithm behaves well if the calculation conditions help fulfil the initial hypotheses. The primary difficulties arise with transient traffic and, in this case, other specific methodologies should be used. Data fusion seems promising in this regard. Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that the improvement provided by the algorithm turns out to be highly beneficial both when used alone in the case of stationarity or as a part of a fusion.