Sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model

Travel demand forecasting is subject to great uncertainties. A systematic uncertainty analysis can provide insights into the level of confidence on the model outputs, and also identify critical sources of uncertainty for enhancing the robustness of the travel demand model. In this paper, we develop a systematic framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) using the analytical sensitivity-based method. The CTDM overcomes limitations of the sequential four-step procedure since it is based on a single unifying rationale. The analytical sensitivity-based method requires less computational effort than the sampling-based method. Meanwhile, the uncertainties stemming from inputs and parameters can be treated separately so that the individual and collective effects of uncertainty on the outputs can be clearly assessed and quantified. Numerical examples are finally used to demonstrate the proposed sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis method for the CTDM.     

Coastal erosion and sea level rise: Implications for ocean beach and San Francisco's westside transport project

Abstract

One of the consequences of sea level rise resulting from the greenhouse effect is increased coastal erosion. This article discusses a model of erosion that can be used to estimate the response of beaches to sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean Beach, California, with particular attention to the consequences of accelerated erosion for the San Francisco Westside Sewer Transport. Results obtained show that erosion produced by accelerated sea level rise could cause substantial damage to the structure. Large expenditures on beach nourishment will be required to protect the transport and the recreational value of the beach.     

Operating cost based cruise speed reduction for ground delay programs: Effect of scope length

Ground delay programs typically involve the delaying of aircraft that are departing from origin airports within some set distance of a capacity constrained destination airport. Long haul flights are not delayed in this way. A trade-off exists when fixing the distance parameter: increasing the ‘scope’ distributes delay among more aircraft and may reduce airborne holding delay but could also result in unnecessary delay in the (frequently observed) case of early program cancellation. In order to overcome part of this drawback, a fuel based cruise speed reduction strategy aimed at realizing airborne delay, was suggested by the authors in previous publications. By flying slower, at a specific speed, aircraft that are airborne can recover part of their initially assigned delay without incurring extra fuel consumption if the ground delay program is canceled before planned. In this paper, the effect of the scope of the program is assessed when applying this strategy. A case study is presented by analyzing all the ground delay programs that took place at San Francisco, Newark Liberty and Chicago O’Hare International airports during one year. Results show that by the introduction of this technique it is possible to define larger scopes, partially reducing the amount of unrecovered delay.     

基于JTG D62-2004的裂缝计算软件开发

介绍了采用VB编制的裂缝计算软件,弥补了大型有限元计算程序的不足,紧密联系规范,界面友好,能适用多种计算工况.     

AJAX技术在Struts验证框架中的应用研究

Ajax是当前流行的一种适用于Web应用开发中的技术，它可以实现无需刷新整个页面，就可以动态更新页面中一部分的内容本文。在介绍Ajax技术和Struts验证框架的基础上，提出了将Ajax技术运用于Struts验证框架中进行数据验证的方法。Struts验证框架通过加入Ajax技术，使得Web应用程序的运行效果更接近于桌面应用程序。     

柴油机管理系统开发与设计方法的研究

根据国内外柴油机电控技术开发与设计的经验，阐述了开发与设计柴油机管理系统所采用的最新技术与方法。通过新技术与新方法的运用，提高整个系统功能控制和以数管理的性能，最终达到改善柴油机经济性，动力性及排放等的目的。     

喷油泵装配线中拧紧技术的研究及应用

本论文介绍了拧紧技术的原理和方法,以及拧紧技术在喷油泵装配线中的应用.最后说明了拧紧程序在喷油泵装配线中的程序防错方法.     

A multiobjective model for maximizing fleet availability under the presence of flight and maintenance requirements

Every aircraft, military or civilian, must be grounded for maintenance after it has completed a certain number of flight hours since its last maintenance check. In this paper, we address the problem of deciding which available aircraft should fly and for how long, and which grounded aircraft should perform maintenance operations, in a group of aircraft that comprise a combat unit. The objective is to achieve maximum availability of the unit over the planning horizon. We develop a multiobjective optimization model for this problem, and we illustrate its application and solution on a real life instance drawn from the Hellenic Air Force. We also propose two heuristic approaches for solving large scale instances of the problem. We conclude with a discussion that gives insight into the behavior of the model and of the heuristics, based on the analysis of the results obtained.     

挂篮施工上跨城际铁路防护棚架设计

针对高速列车行驶的上空挂篮施工存在的安全隐患难题,采用了防护棚架的设计方案,成功地分离了列车与上跨施工的界面,形成了一个全封闭的施工空间.设计中重点考虑了高速列车通过瞬间产生的气动压力和气动吸力对棚架产生的影响,对各种工况条件下各结构受力状态进行了稳定性验算.     

宁波轨道交通轨道振动预测研究及优化

在轨道交通初步设计阶段地下线轨道减振设计中,对距外轨中心线两侧10~60 m范围内的环境敏感点,往往采用踏勘、工程类比等经验方法进行设计,具有一定的误差。在采用《环境影响评价技术导则城市轨道交通》(HJ453—2008)振动预测模型的基础上,参考北京、上海等城市的经验,研究适用于宁波轨道交通地下线轨道振动预测模型,并采用计算机语言实现预测模型程序化以提高设计效率。在初步设计阶段,振动预测的标准化、自动化,对稳定区间轨道高度,细化概算投资,减少设计反复具有重要意义。