Inference on mode preferences,vehicle purchases,and the energy paradox using a Bayesian structural choice model

Discrete choice modeling is experiencing a reemergence of research interest in the inclusion of latent variables as explanatory variables of consumer behavior. There are several reasons that motivate the integration of latent attributes, including better-informed modeling of random consumer heterogeneity and treatment of endogeneity. However, current work still is at an early stage and multiple simplifying assumptions are usually imposed. For instance, most previous applications assume all of the following: independence of taste shocks and of latent attributes, exclusion restrictions, linearity of the effect of the latent attributes on the utility function, continuous manifest variables, and an a priori bound for the number of latent constructs. We derive and apply a structural choice model with a multinomial probit kernel and discrete effect indicators to analyze continuous latent segments of travel behavior, including inference on the energy paradox. Our estimator allows for interaction and simultaneity among the latent attributes, residual correlation, nonlinear effects on the utility function, flexible substitution patterns, and temporal correlation within responses of the same individual. Statistical properties of the Bayes estimator that we propose are exact and are not affected by the number of latent attributes.     

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在高架道路匝道设计中,路网性能及设计悖论的出现与否都受匝道位置的影响,本文对同时优化匝道位置和通行能力的匝道设计问题进行了研究.通过分析设计中可能出现的悖论问题总结了导致其出现的原因.鉴于匝道位置的重要性,建立了考虑匝道位置的走廊通道高架道路匝道设计双层规划模型.模型的决策变量为匝道布设位置、通行能力以及类型(上/下高架),上层目标为最小化网络的总出行时间,下层为交通分配问题.最后,通过计算示例来验证所提出模型的优点,算例结果表明,考虑匝道位置的优化设计模型能获得较好的效果.     

基于车辆动态导航的拥挤定价

通过对传统拥挤定价理论局限性的分析,结合车辆动态导航的最新研究成果,提出基于车辆动态导航的拥挤定价新思路,并据此设计出基于车辆动态导航技术的拥挤定价准则。该定价准则能真实地反映交通拥挤在空间上的分布,充分考虑路径之间的相互替代性,及时准确地体现路网交通的动态变化,从而能很好地克服传统理论的弊端。最后分析了基于车辆动态导航拥挤定价的可行性。