里双桥重建工程道路改建方案设计

合理的横断面形式、平纵线形指标、路基路面设计是城市道路改建中的关键。结合苏州老城区道路改建项目,针对现状建设条件、交通量预测结果,推荐采用三块板断面布置形式。通过拆除原侧分带、压缩非机动车道形式,使现状双向四车道实现双向六车道,同时新建侧分带保留了四排绿化,充分考虑了老城区道路绿化景观需求。拓宽新建段一般路基设计采用20 cm C20混凝土处理,路面设计根据现状弯沉值推荐了两种方案,为城市道路改建工程提供经验参考。     

数据处理方法在路堤工后沉降预测中的应用

介绍了3种预测路堤工后沉降的模型及求解方法，并应用于工程实例中；把3种方法得到的结果与实测结果相比较，指出各种方法各有优点，各有其适用情况。     

Multi-step prediction of experienced travel times using agent-based modeling

This paper develops an agent-based modeling approach to predict multi-step ahead experienced travel times using real-time and historical spatiotemporal traffic data. At the microscopic level, each agent represents an expert in a decision-making system. Each expert predicts the travel time for each time interval according to experiences from a historical dataset. A set of agent interactions is developed to preserve agents that correspond to traffic patterns similar to the real-time measurements and replace invalid agents or agents associated with negligible weights with new agents. Consequently, the aggregation of each agent’s recommendation (predicted travel time with associated weight) provides a macroscopic level of output, namely the predicted travel time distribution. Probe vehicle data from a 95-mile freeway stretch along I-64 and I-264 are used to test different predictors. The results show that the agent-based modeling approach produces the least prediction error compared to other state-of-the-practice and state-of-the-art methods (instantaneous travel time, historical average and k-nearest neighbor), and maintains less than a 9% prediction error for trip departures up to 60 min into the future for a two-hour trip. Moreover, the confidence boundaries of the predicted travel times demonstrate that the proposed approach also provides high accuracy in predicting travel time confidence intervals. Finally, the proposed approach does not require offline training thus making it easily transferable to other locations and the fast algorithm computation allows the proposed approach to be implemented in real-time applications in Traffic Management Centers.     

基于ANFIS的环境激励下桥梁结构应变响应预测分析

为准确预测复杂环境荷载作用下混凝土连续梁桥结构应变响应，基于结构健康监测系统长期实测数据，分析桥梁结构温度场变化规律，进而基于主成分分析及自适应神经网络模糊推理系统，建立桥梁结构温度场与桥梁结构应变响应的复杂非线性关系。首先，利用小波分解技术分离环境荷载及车辆荷载作用下的桥梁结构实测应变响应；然后利用平行坐标轴，分析混凝土连续梁桥结构温度场变化规律，并利用主成分分析提取结构温度场实测温度数据主成分；最后基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统，以应变测点处温度数据、桥梁结构温度场实测温度数据主成分和采样时间点数据为输入数据，分别建立不同输入变量组合与应变响应的复杂非线性关系，并对比分析不同工况下结构应变响应的预测精度。结果表明：桥梁结构各测点处实测温度数据变化趋势基本一致，同侧测点实测温度数据高度相关，但桥梁结构上、下表面测点温度变化存在明显差异，仅考虑应变测点处温度变化，难以准确预测桥梁结构应变响应；当考虑桥梁结构温度场变化时，能更精确地建立温度与应变响应之间的关系模型，进而基于实测温度数据准确预测桥梁结构应变响应；当缺乏结构温度场实测温度数据时，将采样时间点作为反映桥梁结构温度场变化规律的参数，可取得较好效果。     

集装箱船舶大型化现状与未来发展预测

美国次贷危机对全球实体经济影响的加深以及国际石油价格的剧烈变化短期内可能改变集装箱船舶大型化的趋势，但是从长期看，全球集装箱船舶大型化的趋势仍将继续。本文利用相关数据，分析预测未来集装箱船舶大型化的发展状况。     

Experimental and numerical investigation on the derailment of a railway wheelset with solid axle

This paper presents the results of an experimental and numerical investigation on the derailment of a railway wheelset with solid axle. Tests were carried out under quasi-steady-state conditions, on a full-scale roller rig, and allowed to point out the effect of different parameters like the wheelset's angle of attack and the ratio between the vertical loads acting on the flanging and non-flanging wheels. On the basis of the test results, some existing derailment criteria are analysed in this paper and two new criteria are proposed. A model of wheel–rail contact is proposed for the mathematical modelling of the flange climb process, and numerical vs. experimental comparisons are used to obtain model validation.     

Logistic曲线在间歇性路堤填筑下软基沉降预测中的应用

软土路基沉降的预测是高速公路建设的一个重要部分，目前预测方法越来越多，但由于路堤填筑受到自身或者外界因素影响，使得路堤处于间歇性填筑，因此选择合理科学的预测方法至关重要。在介绍软土沉降机理和Logistic曲线性质的基础上，结合西南地区遂（宁）—资（阳）—眉（山）高速公路遂宁至资阳段软土路基沉降预测工程实例，证明Logistic曲线在间歇性路堤填筑下软土路基沉降预测应用上具有科学合理性和适用性。     

适于TBM施工的HSP法实时预报技术设计与实现

为实现TBM施工隧道的实时地质预报，以TBM刀盘滚刀破岩震动作为震源的HSP法地质预报技术为基础，通过分析TBM施工工艺与机身结构特点，对HSP系统硬件和软件进行优化设计，使其小型化、自动化和智能化，并搭载于TBM上进行智能控制。在TBM掘进过程中，首先，通过隧道轮廓位置的检波器连续或高频次地采集地震反射波信号； 然后，经系统软件对数据的自动处理，实时获取掌子面前方地层反射特征参数图谱； 其次，通过智能识别技术完成对不良地质反射界面的有效拾取与判识； 最后，实现不良地质的探测。通过对适于TBM施工的HSP法实时预报技术进行优化设计，实时探查前方地层不良地质(体)位置、规模与性质，为TBM的高效施工起到一定的推助作用。     

Enhancing grey prediction fuzzy controller for active suspension systems

A grey prediction fuzzy controller (GPFC) was proposed to control an active suspension system and evaluate its control performance. The GPFC employed the grey prediction algorithm to predict the position output error of the sprung mass and the error change as input variables of the traditional fuzzy controller (TFC) in controlling the suspension system to suppress the vibration and the acceleration amplitudes of the sprung mass for improving the ride comfort of the TFC used; however, the TFC or GPFC was employed to control the suspension system, resulting in a large tire deflection so that the road-holding ability in the vehicle becomes worse than with the original passive control strategy. To overcome the problem, this work developed an enhancing grey prediction fuzzy controller (EGPFC) that not only had the original GPFC property but also introduced the tire dynamic effect into the controller design, also using the grey prediction algorithm to predict the next tire deflection error and the error change as input variables of another TFC, to control the suspension system for enhancing the road-holding capability of the vehicle. The EGPFC has better control performances in suppressing the vibration and the acceleration amplitudes of the sprung mass to improve the ride quality and in reducing the tire deflection to enhance the road-holding ability of the vehicle, than both TFC and GPFC, as confirmed by experimental results.     

基于寿命分布的备件需求计算模型分析

根据指数分布、正态分布和威布尔分布的寿命分布类型,对航海装备的一些维修备件进行分类,并提出了在满足备件保障度下这三种寿命分布类型备件的需求计算模型,对一些备件需求预测实例进行了预测计算。