Introducing alternative fuel vehicles in Hong Kong: views from the public light bus industry

Hong Kong was the first place in the world to implement a trial scheme to convert all public light buses (PLBs) on the road from diesel to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The scheme, however, did not receive much support from PLB operators. At present, there is a rich literature on households’ demand for AFVs (especially in the USA). However, there have not been many studies about the demand for commercial AFVs in the business and public transport sectors. Since light buses running on alternative fuels are not widely available in the Hong Kong market, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted to solicit the preferences of PLB operators on eight commercial vehicle attributes and seven forms of government support. The SP data are analyzed by multinomial logit (MNL) models. Detailed analyses on market segmentation and price elasticities follow. The results are of theoretical and practical significance.     

Estimating commuter mode choice: A discrete choice analysis of the impact of road pricing and parking charges

Automobile use leads to external costs associated with emissions, congestion, noise and other impacts. One option for minimizing these costs is to introduce road pricing and parking charges to reduce demand for single occupant vehicle (SOV) use, while providing improvements to alternatives to encourage mode switching. However, the impact of these policies on urban mode choice is uncertain, and results reported from regions where charging has been introduced may not be transferable. In particular, revealed preference data associated with cost recovery tolls on single facilities may not provide a clear picture of driver response to tolls for demand management. To estimate commuter mode choice behaviour in response to such policies, 548 commuters from a Greater Vancouver suburb who presently drive alone to work completed an individually customized discrete choice experiment (DCE) in which they chose between driving alone, carpooling or taking a hypothetical express bus service when choices varied in terms of time and cost attributes. Attribute coefficients identified with the DCE were used in a predictive model to estimate commuter response to various policy oriented combinations of charges and incentives. Model results suggest that increases in drive alone costs will bring about greater reductions in SOV demand than increases in SOV travel time or improvements in the times and costs of alternatives beyond a base level of service. The methods described here provide an effective and efficient way for policy makers to develop an initial assessment of driver reactions to the introduction of pricing policies in their particular regions.     

车内噪声声品质偏好性评价与分析实验研究

运用分组成对比较法对车内噪声样本进行偏好性主观评价实验,并在精确计算评价结果误判率的基础上,对评价结果进行相关分析和多元回归分析,得到回归方程.最后采用频域滤波技术,识别出指定频率段对车内噪声偏好性的影响.     

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对于缅甸的仰光市而言,鉴于其新的快速轨道交通系统对于缓解城市现在以及将来的交通压力方面的作用,本文将依据SP调查数据对其居民出行方式选择行为进行研究。与发达国家相比,由于发展中国家诸如收入等社会经济环境因素变化相对较快,这就要求我们无论在调查方法还是模型构造上都要反映出这种交通行为决定因素的影响。因此,此次SP调查首先在设计就反映出了将来的收入以及其他服务水平属性变化的影响;同时,也相应地进行了RP调查。接下来,要对一个RP/SP相结合的交通方式选择模型进行标定;在这个模型中,出行时间和费用的参数被分别定义为将来收入的函数。此次SP（以及RP）调查选在仰光市的一个住宅区进行,时间是2003年3月。调查结果显示,与其他交通方式相比较,被调查的人对新的快速轨道交通系统显示出了极大的偏爱。利用调查上来的数据,本文对所提出的模型结构的有效性进行了验证。另外,模型对将来的模拟分析结果显示：随着收入的增加,将来仰光市小汽车的使用将有一个很大的增加,而新的快速轨道交通系统的利用将因此减少。     

基于混合Logit模型的旅客对短途高速铁路列车选择行为

以南京到上海和南京到杭州的短途高速铁路客流为背景,应用行为调查法与意向调查法开展客流调查,获取客流数据。基于选择行为理论,以旅客对列车的选择作为因变量,旅客个体特征、出行特征、列车服务水平作为自变量,基于多项式Logit模型构建混合Logit模型,拟合客流调查数据。结果表明:混合Logit模型的拟合优度高于多项式Logit模型;出发时间是影响旅客选择行为的关键因素,77%的旅客偏好选择6:00—7:00出发列车,仅有10%的旅客偏好选择20:00—21:00出发列车;列车旅行时间、票价水平与旅客对列车的选择行为负相关;女性、50岁以上、学生、低收入、自费购票等类的旅客对票价敏感度较高;公务人员及企业职员偏好选择8:00—11:00开行的列车,休闲出行旅客偏好选择8:00—11:00及14:00—17:00开行的列车;行前接驳选择自驾换乘的旅客,偏好选择5:00—8:00开行的列车;旅客对6:00-10:00开行列车的支付意愿最高,对17:00—22:00开行列车的支付意愿最低。     

A review of separate and joint strategies for the use of data on revealed and stated choices

This paper examines recent developments in household travel surveys that collect data for use in transportation planning and modeling efforts. The paper then introduces the notion of a total survey design and elaborates on what is meant by this concept. This is done first in the context of standard surveys of revealed choices. The paper discusses aspects of content and respondent burden and illustrates the potential to reduce respondent burden through careful consideration of content, question design, and question ordering. The paper also explores some issues of survey "friendliness" particularly with respect to activity surveys versus time-use surveys, with some observations about the potential of time-use surveys to eliminate some of the burden and content problems of previous diary designs. The remainder of the paper concentrates on the issue of collecting stated-response data and examines two alternative methods for collection: simultaneous collection of the contextual information and "on-the-fly" development of the alternatives for the stated-response questions, or sequential collection of contextual data and development of the stated-response questions. The paper also addresses issues of respondent burden that arise in the administration of stated-response surveys. The paper concludes with exploration of some of the reasons for collecting stated-response data, with particular emphasis on the US situation. In conclusion, the paper stresses again the need for a total design concept for collection of stated-response data, as well as for the simpler collection of more standard revealed choice data.     

考虑确定型偏好行为的艰险山区铁路选线决策方法研究

针对传统铁路选线方法研究中未考虑决策者的主观偏好行为,基于决策理论考虑确定型偏好行为对艰险山区铁路线路方案选择的影响,力争构建最佳决策方法来契合决策者的确定型偏好行为。引入直觉模糊集理论,考虑决策者在决策时的犹豫度,通过直觉模糊交叉熵距离度量直觉模糊集的距离或差异程度;构建艰险山区铁路方案比选指标体系,包括技术可行性、经济合理性、施工条件及环境影响、社会政治经济意义4个评价指标层;结合灰色关联分析法思想,考虑评价指标层在权重完全未知和部分未知两种情况下的决策方法。通过案例分析,验证该决策方法的可行性和实用性,提高决策的质量和水平,指导艰险山区铁路选线方案决策。     

城市公共客运交通优先方案的评价

大城市客运应该以公共交通方式为主,通常采取公共交通优先方案来保障其实现.本 文针对城市公共客运交通优先问题,提出一套全面评价体系与相应的应用模式/程序,在城市客运交通模式战略选择、城市内区域公共客运交通规划、城市公共汽电车通道交通设计三个层次上,定量化地解决公共交通优先度的评价、选择、以及与其它交通方式权利的均衡间题,成果可应用于大城市确定客运交通战略,并一贯性地部署城市各区域公共客运交通规划和指导具体的公共客运通道交通设计。     

基于时间和能耗权重的密集停车场调度策略

平面密集停车是一项全新的停车方案,利用四向移载设备配合停车托盘来实现密集停车功能. 为研究其调度问题,利用改进最短路径算法求解平面密集停车场内任一车位上车辆出库调度的综合最短路径. 不同客户对时间和费用的偏好不同,电机空载和满载时能耗不同导致调度成本不同,故引入时间权重和能耗权重两项指标建立数学模型. 通过仿真模拟,实验结果验证了模型的可行性. 研究结果表明,建立的车辆调度模型可用于密集停车场的出库调度,在保证车辆调度出库时间合理的基础上节约能源消耗、降低成本,实现了经济环保的目标.本研究对智能平面密集停车场的推广应用做出了一定的贡献.