尝试对柴油车不透光烟度值进行不确定度评定

测量不确定度是判定测量结果质量的重要依据，引入了不确定度的概念对于检测和校准实验室的测试、测量结果可信度有着重要的意义。尝试采用不确定度对柴油车不透光烟度值进行评定。     

Demand uncertainty and airport capacity choice

This study analyzes the effects of demand uncertainty on airport capacity choices. It shows that demand uncertainty will not change optimal capacity choice if demand variation is low and capacity cost is high; otherwise the optimal airport capacity under demand uncertainty will be larger than the case when a deterministic mean demand is considered. These conclusions are robust with respect to the different market structures considered in this study and hold for both profit-maximizing and welfare-maximizing airports. The moderating effects of commercial revenue, capital cost, and airport operation cost on airport capacity choice are qualitatively the same in the cases of uncertain demand and deterministic demand.     

On the value of highway travel time information systems

After the widespread deployment of Advanced Traveler Information Systems, there exists an increasing concern about their profitability. The costs of such systems are clear, but the quantification of the benefits still generates debate. This paper analyzes the value of highway travel time information systems. This is achieved by modeling the departure time selection and route choice with and without the guidance of an information system. The behavioral model supporting these choices is grounded on the expected utility theory, where drivers try to maximize the expected value of their perceived utility. The value of information is derived from the reduction of the unreliability costs as a consequence of the wiser decisions made with information. This includes the reduction of travel times, scheduling costs and stress. This modeling approach allows assessing the effects of the precision of the information system in the value of the information.Different scenarios are simulated in a generic but realistic context, using empirical data measured on a highway corridor accessing the city of Barcelona, Spain. Results show that travel time information only has a significant value in three situations: (1) when there is an important scheduled activity at the destination (e.g. morning commute trips), (2) in case of total uncertainty about the conditions of the trip (e.g. sporadic trips), and (3) when more than one route is possible. Information systems with very high precision do not produce better results. However, an acceptable level of precision is completely required, as information systems with very poor precision may even be detrimental. The paper also highlights the difference between the user value and the social value of the information. The value of the information may not benefit only the user. For instance, massive dissemination of travel time information contributes to the reduction of day-to-day travel time variance. This favors all drivers, even those without information. In these situations travel time information has the property that its social benefits exceed private benefits (i.e. information has positive externalities). Of course, drivers are only willing to cover costs equal or smaller than their private benefits, which in turn may justify subsidies for information provision.     

大型基础设施系统设计中的风险及概率

在大型基础设施系统中,不可避免地会出现重大的不确定性,因而,无法确保已建系统的安全性和可靠性.有功能失效甚至破坏的可能,同时也有相应的规避风险的措施.从实用角度出发,不确定性可以分为两大类:数据型(又称偶然型)不确定性和知识型(又称认知型)不确定性.前者可以通过对数据的观察来评估,而后者则需要主观判断.系统地分析了这两...     

半潜平台波浪载荷不确定性及结构疲劳可靠性研究

在海洋平台结构疲劳强度分析的不确定因素中波浪载荷的不确定性对其影响较大,为了评估疲劳载荷计算过程中波浪载荷的不确定性文章建立了海浪谱型、波高、波浪载荷传递函数、平均跨零周期、海况发生概率和浪向等引起的波浪载荷不确定性的评估方法和公式.同时为了评估波浪载荷传递函数的不确定性进行了波浪载荷模型试验.重点对西北太平洋和中国南海的海况进行了分析计算,定量统计回归出西北太平洋的有义波高和平均跨零周期修正公式,以及中国南海不同季节海况和浪向分布规律对半潜平台波浪载荷和疲劳寿命的影响因子.最后根据波浪载荷不确定性以及结构疲劳分析中的其他不确定因素计算分析了半潜平台典型结构的疲劳可靠度.     

船舶结构腐蚀检测与腐蚀模型不确定性及其更新

针对经典的概率论不能有效地处理无损检测中检测概率的参数不确定性问题,提出了定量分析检测概率参数不确定性问题的贝叶斯方法,并以威布尔分布形式的检测概率为例,推导了量化参数不确定性的放大系数的计算公式.针对传统的数据分析法及专家判断法不能分析模型不确定性更新问题,本文基于无损检测信息,采用贝叶斯更新方法量化了检测概率分布函数的统计模型不确定性,得到了检测概率统计模型权重的后验概率及相应的分布参数的后验概率密度函数.最后提出了分析船体结构腐蚀多层次模型不确定性问题的全概率模型法,并用算例证明了文中所提方法的有效性.     

结构可靠性分析中结构能力统计特征的正确确定

在船舶结构界可靠性方法已得到越来越广泛的应用，在进行现有船舶的可靠性分析或对新船制订可靠性设计规范时，必须要首先确定能力与载荷的统计特征，在已发表的文献中，用于确定结构能力统计特征的方法甚至基本概念并不十分统一，本文旨在对有些概念和方法作一澄清。两类随机变量必须要区分开，即基本随机变量和从属随机变量，对于从属随机变量统计特征的确定，本文介绍了一种精确高效的确定其均值和标准差的方法，本文还对一些不正确步骤以及忽略某些信息带来的后果进行了讨论，归纳出了一些可供参考的结论。     

基于不确定度评定方法的动力电池数据模型可靠性量化分析方法的研究

模型建立中可使用各种非线性模型对过程进行描述,如果模型能够描述模型预测值的不确定性,这一信息将是评价模型或者判断评估结果的重要工具。参考计量学领域中不确定度量化评定方法,将测量不确定度引申为模型不确定度,旨在研究基于不确定评定方法的动力电池数据模型可靠性量化评价方法,提出基于GUM 法的模型不确定度评估方法,不仅可以定量评价现有模型的可靠性,同时可以量化分析其影响不确定度分量,从而进一步提高其模型预测(估算)准确性。     

An integrated control strategy for the composite braking system of an electric vehicle with independently driven axles

For an electric vehicle with independently driven axles, an integrated braking control strategy was proposed to coordinate the regenerative braking and the hydraulic braking. The integrated strategy includes three modes, namely the hybrid composite mode, the parallel composite mode and the pure hydraulic mode. For the hybrid composite mode and the parallel composite mode, the coefficients of distributing the braking force between the hydraulic braking and the two motors' regenerative braking were optimised offline, and the response surfaces related to the driving state parameters were established. Meanwhile, the six-sigma method was applied to deal with the uncertainty problems for reliability. Additionally, the pure hydraulic mode is activated to ensure the braking safety and stability when the predictive failure of the response surfaces occurs. Experimental results under given braking conditions showed that the braking requirements could be well met with high braking stability and energy regeneration rate, and the reliability of the braking strategy was guaranteed on general braking conditions.