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61.
船舶动力设备因故障监测信号样本少、变化缓慢且数据特征呈非线性,使得设备故障模式的准确识别和状态预测比较难。鉴于此,文章研究了基于隐马尔科夫模型的故障模式识别方法,利用该模型将微弱变化的信号特征转换为变化较大的对数似然概率对故障模式实现有效识别。在此基础上进一步提出基于HMM-SVR的设备状态预测模型,将遗传算法用于支持向量回归模型参数寻优,并结合隐马尔科夫模型,实现对设备状态的预测。对船用柴油机进行仿真,结果表明上述模型具有较高的识别率,能准确预测船舶动力设备的当前状态。 相似文献
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航道改建工程中,常因航道两岸环境复杂,须对护岸结构进行多方案的比选。而比选大多以定性分析的主观判断为主,往往存在一定局限性。以上海某航道综合整治工程一标段护岸结构的优选为例,针对典型段护岸,运用灰色关联层次分析法从中寻求安全可靠且经济合理的护岸结构方案。针对特殊段护岸,分析通常遇到的特殊环境条件情况,找出技术可行的较理想的护岸结构方案。研究成果可为类似工程提供借鉴。 相似文献
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Hristos Karahalios 《Maritime Policy and Management》2017,44(4):426-441
Regulations are introduced by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) into the maritime industry as the result of safety accidents and/or pollution incidents. When there is lack of historical data, then the IMO appoints experts in order to collect information regarding the costs and benefits generated to a stakeholder of the maritime industry once implementing a maritime regulation. Therefore, the role of experts in providing qualitative and quantitative information is crucial with respect to the quality of the maritime regulatory process within the IMO or other regulatory authorities. In this article, a methodology is proposed involving common criteria in determining the expertise of an individual in the maritime regulatory field. As essential part of the research methodology, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is utilized to determine the expertise of an individual based on his/her own judgements. The regulatory authorities and other stakeholders of the maritime industry may use this method when selecting experts for decision-making. In this article, a simulation is carried showing the potentials of the AHP methodology in expertise evaluation followed by a case study. 相似文献
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Building safe and effective roundabouts requires optimizing traffic (operational) efficiency (TE) and traffic safety (TS) while taking into account geometric factors, traffic characteristics and local constraints. Most existing simulation-based optimization models do not simultaneously optimize all these factors. To capture the relationship among geometry, efficiency and safety, we put forward a model formulation in this paper. We present a new multi-criteria and simultaneous multi-objective optimization (MOO) model approach to optimize geometry, TE and TS of urban unsignalized single-lane roundabouts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model that uses the multi-criteria decision-making method known as analytic hierarchy process to evaluate and rank traffic parameters and geometric elements of urban single-lane roundabouts. The model was built based on comprehensive review of the research literature and existing roundabout simulation software, a field survey of 61 civil and traffic expert engineers in Croatia, and field studies of roundabouts in the Croatian capital city of Zagreb. We started from the basis of Kimber’s capacity model, HCM2010 serviceability model, and Maycock and Hall's accident prediction model, which we extended by adding sensitivity analysis and powerful MOO procedures of the bounded objective function method and interactive optimization. Preliminary validation of the model was achieved by identifying the optimal and most robust of three geometric alternatives (V.1-V.3) for an unsignalized single-lane roundabout in Zagreb, Croatia. The geometric parameters in variant V.1 had significantly higher values than in the existing design V.0, while approaches 1 and 3 in variant V.2 were enlarged as much as possible within allowed spatial limits and Croatian guidelines, reflecting their higher traffic demand. Sensitivity analysis indicated that variant V.2 showed the overall highest TE and TS across the entire range of traffic flow demand and pedestrian crossing flow demand at approaches. At the same time, the number of predicted traffic accidents was similar for all three variants, although it was lowest overall for V.2. The similarity in predicted accident frequency for the three variants suggests that V.2 provides the greatest safety within the predefined constraints and parameter ranges explored in our study. These preliminary results suggest that the proposed model can optimize geometry, TE and TS of urban single-lane roundabouts. 相似文献
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在含有相依部件的系统中提出一个联合重要度的兼容性算法,即在基本部件不独立(相依)条件下,将故障树的系统结构特点和部件自身的可靠性因素兼容考虑进行联合重要度计算,并将此算法同其它算法的计算结果进行比较,从而验证说明这一算法的有效性. 相似文献
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中国TBM施工技术进展、挑战及对策 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
总结我国近30年来TBM设计与施工技术的发展历程,可归纳为以下5个阶段:1)研发探索和试用阶段;2)以国外施工承包商为主体,采用国外设计制造TBM施工我国隧道工程阶段;3)独立进行TBM招标采购和选型设计,并建立起自主的TBM施工队伍阶段;4)与国外厂家联合设计制造TBM,工程应用和自主施工快速发展阶段;5)实现TBM国产化,面向国内外TBM工程市场自主施工阶段。通过我国不同时期TBM施工的典型工程,介绍我国在复杂地质、大坡度、高海拔、不同直径、不同机型、超长隧洞TBM施工方面取得的经验、技术积累和业绩,展示我国TBM在穿越断层破碎带、软弱变形、岩爆、涌水等不良地质洞段取得的一系列施工新技术,以及最高月进尺1 868 m、平均月进尺超过600 m和掘进作业利用率超过40%的掘进技术水平。分析TBM在极硬岩、大断层破碎带、软弱大变形围岩、强岩爆围岩、涌水突泥洞段、高地热隧洞和超长隧洞工程中施工面临的风险和挑战,并提出一些相应的技术措施和对策,期望这些措施和对策在未来大量实际工程中进一步得到实践验证、优化和改进,不断积累和创新TBM设计与施工新技术。 相似文献