An autonomous system for maintenance scheduling data-rich complex infrastructure: Fusing the railways’ condition,planning and cost

National railways are typically large and complex systems. Their network infrastructure usually includes extended track sections, bridges, stations and other supporting assets. In recent years, railways have also become a data-rich environment.Railway infrastructure assets have a very long life, but inherently degrade. Interventions are necessary but they can cause lateness, damage and hazards. Every day, thousands of discrete maintenance jobs are scheduled according to time and urgency. Service disruption has a direct economic impact. Planning for maintenance can be complex, expensive and uncertain.Autonomous scheduling of maintenance jobs is essential. The design strategy of a novel integrated system for automatic job scheduling is presented; from concept formulation to the examination of the data to information transitional level interface, and at the decision making level. The underlying architecture configures high-level fusion of technical and business drivers; scheduling optimized intervention plans that factor-in cost impact and added value.A proof of concept demonstrator was developed to validate the system principle and to test algorithm functionality. It employs a dashboard for visualization of the system response and to present key information. Real track incident and inspection datasets were analyzed to raise degradation alarms that initiate the automatic scheduling of maintenance tasks. Optimum scheduling was realized through data analytics and job sequencing heuristic and genetic algorithms, taking into account specific cost & value inputs from comprehensive task cost modelling. Formal face validation was conducted with railway infrastructure specialists and stakeholders. The demonstrator structure was found fit for purpose with logical component relationships, offering further scope for research and commercial exploitation.     

长江南京以下深水航道生态型整治建筑物结构研究

针对长江南京以下河段水文泥沙、河床组成特点及生态环境现状,研发了格状石笼压载植生垫、立体网状、生态软体排等潮位变动区生态护坡结构,土工格栅加十字块压护、隔室模袋混凝土等高滩生态防护结构,空间排体、主动式钩连体、扭双工字透水框架等生态护底护滩结构,开孔半圆形构件、开孔梯形构件等生态型坝体结构,分析了各种结构的作用机理。各种结构均已用于长江南京以下12.5 m深水航道一、二期工程中,并取得显著的经济和生态效益,具有良好的推广应用价值。     

A discrete choice framework for modeling and forecasting the adoption and diffusion of new transportation services

Major technological and infrastructural changes over the next decades, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, implementation of mileage-based fees, carsharing and ridesharing are expected to have a profound impact on lifestyles and travel behavior. Current travel demand models are unable to predict long-range trends in travel behavior as they do not entail a mechanism that projects membership and market share of new modes of transport (Uber, Lyft, etc.). We propose integrating discrete choice and technology adoption models to address the aforementioned issue. In order to do so, we build on the formulation of discrete mixture models and specifically Latent Class Choice Models (LCCMs), which were integrated with a network effect model. The network effect model quantifies the impact of the spatial/network effect of the new technology on the utility of adoption. We adopted a confirmatory approach to estimating our dynamic LCCM based on findings from the technology diffusion literature that focus on defining two distinct types of adopters: innovator/early adopters and imitators. LCCMs allow for heterogeneity in the utility of adoption for the various market segments i.e. innovators/early adopters, imitators and non-adopters. We make use of revealed preference (RP) time series data from a one-way carsharing system in a major city in the United States to estimate model parameters. The data entails a complete set of member enrollment for the carsharing service for a time period of 2.5 years after being launched. Consistent with the technology diffusion literature, our model identifies three latent classes whose utility of adoption have a well-defined set of preferences that are significant and behaviorally consistent. The technology adoption model predicts the probability that a certain individual will adopt the service at a certain time period, and is explained by social influences, network effect, socio-demographics and level-of-service attributes. Finally, the model was calibrated and then used to forecast adoption of the carsharing system for potential investment strategy scenarios. A couple of takeaways from the adoption forecasts were: (1) placing a new station/pod for the carsharing system outside a major technology firm induces the highest expected increase in the monthly number of adopters; and (2) no significant difference in the expected number of monthly adopters for the downtown region will exist between having a station or on-street parking.     

Towards safety improvement: implementation and assessment of new standards of competence for Electro-Technical Officers on ships

The paper deals with education of ship engineers as an integral part of maritime policy in global shipping. The central problem, how to reconcile technological advancement with training en route to improving safety, is defined. A complete conceptual model for solving a central question is formulated and described. At the beginning, a short analysis of technological advances and the need for training is presented. Next, the basic components of conceptual model, including implementation and assessment of new standards of competences for Electro-Technical Officers in the wake of Maritime Education and Training (MET) development are discussed. A key point of the assessment procedure is focused on the formulation of criterion defining the impact of new standards on the given processes characterizing a professional carrier development of seafarers. These processes, which mean certification process and recruitment of candidates to seafarer profession, are strongly linked with and influenced on MET development and improving the safety of shipping. Empirical application by pointing the Polish case study to the framework of conceptual model under consideration is shown and analysed. Finally, the future works as well as the concluding remarks are formulated and commented on.     

Internalization of port congestion: strategic effect behind shipping line delays and implications for terminal charges and investment

This paper develops a theoretical model to analyze the congestion internalization of the shipping lines, taking into account the ‘knock on’ effect (i.e. the congestion delay passed on from one port-of-call to the next port-of-call). We find that with the presence of the knock-on effect, liners will operate less in terminals, and an increase of a liner’s operation in one terminal will decrease its operation in the other. If the liners are involved in a Stackelberg competition, whether they operate more or less in a terminal under the knock-on effect depends on the comparison between the marginal congestion costs of terminals. Furthermore, we find that the coordinated profit-maximizing terminal charges are higher than both the socially optimal terminal charges and the independent profit-maximizing terminal charges. When the knock-on effect is small, the independent profit-maximizing terminal charges are set at higher levels than the socially optimal terminal charges; but when the knock-on effect is sufficiently large, this relationship may reverse. Besides, the capacity investment rules are the same for welfare-maximizing terminal operator and coordinated profit-maximizing terminal operator, while independent profit-maximizing terminal operators invest less in capacity. The larger the knock-on effect, the larger this discrepancy.     

An Assessment of Integrated Coastal Management Governance and Implementation Using the DPSIR Framework: KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Coastal areas are under increasing pressure driven by demands for coastal space, primarily though population growth, in migration and the need for space for socioeconomic activities. The pressures and associated changes to the coastal environment need to be managed to ensure long-term sustainability. South Africa has enacted an Integrated Coastal Management Act (ICM Act) to facilitate dedicated management of its coastal environment. The implementation has been met with a number of challenges, primarily relating to financial and human capacity constraints, particularly at the local government level. Given that the ICM Act devolves powers to local government, it is imperative that implementation challenges be addressed. This paper focuses on KwaZulu-Natal, one of four South African coastal regions, which is a renowned tourist destination and home to 11.1 million people (Statistics South Africa 2015 Statistics South Africa. 2015. Mid-Year Population Estimates. Statistical release P0302. Pretoria, South Africa: Statistics South Africa. [Google Scholar]). This paper considers the state of coastal management, as well as implementation challenges being experienced at a local governance level, and highlights ways to address these. Data were acquired through questionnaire surveys and semistructured interviews. The Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was used to identify relevant ICM issues and concerns and develop potential actions for improving the implementation of coastal management activities and the ICM Act. In the assessment of the ICM governance and implementation to date, a key concern identified was a general lack of coastal management knowledge among officials. It was specifically identified that knowledgeable management and capacity-building required championing from the provincial government in order to more efficiently and effectively implement the objectives of the ICM Act through an improved understanding of the coastal environment, its functioning and management.     

大型船舶横向靠离码头所需拖船协助力的近似计算

为了保证大型船舶安全、经济地靠离码头，驾引人员应当对所需拖船协助力心中有数。国内外研究人员已在理论和实验方面做了大量的工作，但实用的计算方法仍不多见，且存在着一些问题。提高大型船舶横向靠离码头所需拖船协助力估算精度的关键是横流阻力系数Ｃ（ｗｙ）的估算。该文根据１２条船模试验数据用逐步回归分析法获得了可以表达Ｃ（ｗｙ）与船型及水深之间关系的近似公式；同时依据大型船舶横向离码头实际是加减速运动这一事实，考虑了加速运动对Ｃ（ｗｙ）系数的影响；此外还分析了岸壁对船舶横向运动的影响。该文所提供的计算方法是实用和可靠的，可供船舶驾引人员使用，亦可供船舶操纵运动数学模型研究人员参考。     

导航雷达方位分辩力问题探讨

探讨影响导航雷达方位分辨力的３个理论因素：Ｆｒｅｓｎｅｌ区波束展宽、端馈阵列天线瞬变效应和激励脉冲波形较差引起波束展宽。指出在下述３种情况下方位分辨力会显著恶化：稳态Ｆｒｅｓｎｅｌ区Ｒ〈０．５Ｌ＾２／λ、瞬态Ｔａ／Ｔｓ〉１．１以及激励脉冲波形较差而且Ｔａ／Ｔｓ〉１．１。     

大型油船和集装箱船静水弯矩的统计特性研究

本文介绍了国内外静水弯矩的研究现状，对Soares和Moan的经验回归公式进行了详细讨论，发现不同的研究人员对静水弯矩统计特征的认识存在相当大的差异。文中对静水弯矩均值和变异系数对船舶总纵强度安全指数的敏感度进行了分析，发现均值比变异系数更加重要。在分析和比较的基础上，根据简单可靠的原则，对集装箱船和油船的静水弯矩统计特征计算提出了如下建议：集装箱船，Cov=0．30；油船，满载（中垂）时，Cov＝0．4，压载（中拱）时，Cov=0．70。     

静脉快速诱导气管插管时心血管副反应预防的临床观察

应用具有短暂快速降压作用的ＡＴＰ及具有α－肾上腺素受体阻滞作用的氟哌啶来抑制气管插管所引起的心血管反应，并进行临床观察及对照研究。结果表明：ＡＴＰ对气管插管所致的血压升高有很好的抑制作用。